UFC Vegas 121 Predictions:
The Meta APEX facility will host this week’s UFC LV121 event. This slate features 12 bouts, two of which are TUF finals, so those athletes are vying to earn UFC inclusion. Until an athlete enters the UFC roster, they do not enter my database, so this week’s pool of fights is 10 bouts deep.
Favorites were tepid last week, going 7-5, which drops UFC favorites to 69.5% thus far this year. That is still 5+/- basis points higher than standard, but we have time, and we are willing to view decent underdog results as we did on last week’s UFC 331 slate.
We made a few wagering suggestions in last week’s column. The first was for Polish light heavyweight Iwo Baraniewski to pulverize Alonzo Menifield, but Menifield earned the decision win. We dropped a unit there. Then our Su Mujaerdi/Aman Tsarukyan parlay hit in the first round, clearing +2.3 net units.
Digital results thus far in 2026: 19-15-1 +6.67u.
Let’s fight!
Raul Rosas Jr. -185 vs. Raoni Barcelos +165
Featherweight (145 pounds) main event
BJJ black belt Rosas Jr. is a 21-year-old wrestling/grappling based athlete who has cut his teeth in the UFC since he was a late teen
This will be Rosas Jr.’s eighth UFC bout. He stands 7-1 but has faced only nominally equipped UFC talent. His loss to Christian Rodriguez showed Rosas had much to learn in striking, strike defense, and marrying his many specialties into one well-rounded skill set.
Rosas Jr., unranked in the UFC bantamweight division, is still a developing fighter coming off his most impressive victory to date: a decision win over an aged, fading but still viable Rob Font.
Rosas is at his best pressing action onto his adversary and attempting to initiate his clasp wrestling/grappling. Rosas is a tremendously low-volume striker (1.34 significant strikes landed per minute). He also accepts very few strikes, mostly because he works on the inside clasping, clutching, and pressing opponents into the fence as opposed to allowing them room to maneuver and set him up with striking weaponry.
Rosas Jr. understands that fighting chest to chest and rolling on the canvas sufficiently eliminates power striking from any adversary. Fluidity of striking and strike evasion are skills Rosas Jr. is still acquiring.
BJJ black belt Raoni Barcelos has competed in the UFC since 2018 and has compiled an 11-4 record. Barcelos, now 39, will be giving up almost 18 years of age to young Rosas Jr. However, Barcelos is still madly dangerous as a UFC bantamweight.
In his last fight, Barcelos climbed to the division’s eighth spot by defeating then-top-ten-ranked Montel Jackson, who also competes on this fight card.
Barcelos’ level of competition faced, his depth of experience, and his diverse mixed martial arts skillset make him an ideal opponent for Rosas, who is looking to climb into the bantamweight rankings with this bout.
Once this fight begins, Rosas will want to use his forward-pressing wrestling advantage to maneuver Barcelos against the fence, then eventually clasp onto him and take him down to the floor for a roll.
There, Barcelos ’ power striking will be muted, and Rosas will be able to compete against the beguiling, grizzled old mixed martial artist well more effectively than on the feet, where Barcelos’ power and footwork will work to his favor against the young Mexican grappler.
Barcelos will need to use footwork, fight IQ, and striking to force Rosas Jr. into predictable entries. If Barcelos can time Rosas Jr.’s entries with a well-placed knee or uppercut, he’ll have taken the first step in thwarting Rosas Jr.’s advances.
Barcelos will need to be measured in his power striking early in this fight. Rosas Jr. is well aware that the early wrestling sequences in this fight may pay dividends to him later when the young Rosas Jr. is able to remain high activity while hopefully sapping some of the energy from the wise Brazilian.
The age difference is the main thing keeping me from proclaiming Barcelos a buy at this point in the week.
Monitoring.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Over -175
Josiah Harrell -135 vs. Elves Brener +115
Lightweight (155 pounds)
This fight has violence written all over it.
Harrell fights out of Ohio. This is his sophomore UFC appearance. In his first bout he stood in the cage with an absolute killer in Jacobe Smith and was starched in the first round, for which there is absolutely no shame, as Smith is an up-and-coming top-ten talent in the Welterweight division. Yes, Harrell took the fight up a weight class in order to pry himself into the UFC.
Ten of 11 professional wins for Harrell have been finishes. He looks to bounce in this fight after his first professional setback, one that was incurred at a weight class above his normal 155 pounds.
Harrell is a forward-pressing power striker looking to stand flat-footed and hurl. Few have been able to compete against him in this manner and survive with a victory.
For Brazilian Elves Brener, this is a foundational fight. He earned victories in his first three UFC bouts. In his next three battles, he faced elite, top-ranked, and absolutely lethal fighters to whom he lost each fight.
Competing in the same cage against killers like Oralbai, Alvarez and Ribovics brings Brener no shame. Rather, it puts a premium on him for competing in the same cage as those elite fighters, which levels Brener’s game up as I handicap this fight.
Level of competition faced is a huge barometer, and in this matchup, the Brazilian underdog looks to be in a great position to transition his 3-3 UFC record into a winning one by defeating this master blaster from Ohio.
When the smoke clears from this fight, both men will be marked, bloodied, and bruised, but I believe the speed and quickness, as well as the momentum created by competing against the division’s elite, will propel Brener to victory.
UFC Vegas 121 Best Bet: Elves Brener +115
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -135
Strong lean Over
Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on the GambLou.com webpage. ‘Bout Business is showing 57-71 +10.23u 6% ROI on the year. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
RECORD BREAKER! ROBERT FERRINGO just had one of the biggest football weeks in Doc’s Sports’ 56-year history! Robert banked +3,720 with his football picks (documented HERE) and added another +2,350 with his football props (documented HERE). That is an electrifying +6,070 in winnings and he’s looking to add to it this weekend!
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