UFC Vegas 122 Predictions:
The Meta APEX facility will host this week’s UFC Fight Night event, headlined by a middleweight bout between Brandon Allen and England’s Christian Leroy Duncan.
At APEX, a larger crowd can now take in the fights, so there is more noise than the little-to-no sound old APEX events offered, even though the 25-foot cage remains, rather than the larger 30-foot octagon.
Thirteen fights populate this card. Five fights will be waged at 170 pounds and above, where finishing potential is at its highest. We also have four bouts originally lined with the favorite at -250 or higher, which is several less than what we have seen on recent fight cards.
The card also features substantial age differences. Three domestic athletes will have the advantage of facing a combatant who must travel into the States, then get to Las Vegas to make weight, and finally compete.
Last week, Mick Parkin was decimated by a flying knee from Johnny Walker in a heavyweight bout that ended in the first round. Let’s make like a championship fighter this week and rebound immediately off of that one-unit loss.
Digital results: 20-16-1 +6.82u
Brendan Allen -140 vs. Christian Leroy Duncan +120
Middleweight main event
Duncan, from Gloucester, England, is 8-2 in UFC competition and the division’s 10th-ranked fighter. The Englishman is tall, long, athletic, and steadily improving as a UFC top-20 athlete.
Duncan’s career began in basketball; he eventually found mixed martial arts and began his ascent to the UFC middleweight title by dominating journeyman fighters early in his career.
However, after a decision loss to ranked fighter Gregory Rodrigues in the summer of 2024, Duncan has rolled through five UFC middleweights, including the last two, Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier, both top-15 ranked despite being older fighters.
Duncan uses his nimble footwork, unusual for such a large-bodied man, along with his 79-inch reach, to create angles to strike and evade his opponents’ shots. He utilizes numbing leg kicks as part of his fight arsenal, and overall, Duncan is a fleet-footed, levelheaded, striking-based fighter with athleticism and power.
Wrestling, however, is not his bag, nor has he had to worry about it against the limited set of opponents he has faced.
Duncan’s opponent on Saturday is fifth-ranked middleweight Brendan Allen, a black belt in BJJ. He has accrued a 15-4 record in the UFC,
Brendan Allen will present Duncan with many problems, as he is a legitimate top-10 middleweight with world-class grappling skills and significant striking ability.
Allen’s depth of experience, the adverse set of middleweights he has faced and overcome, and his capabilities surely make him a legitimate threat to the Middleweight title.
Allen is looking to solidify his position within the rankings by overcoming the challenge that is CLD; Duncan is a fighter that few are willing to risk their ranking against.
In Allen, we get a fighter with little fear, but a man who, on occasion, fights with a low IQ.
Once the fight begins, CLD will try to walk Allen down, back him up with his striking/kicking using length, and employ power. His goal will be to force the more experienced Allen into a striking/kicking competition that is perfectly suited to CLD’s strength.
For Allen, he’ll need to navigate the four-inch reach advantage Duncan will use to keep him at the end of his strikes. Allen will need to use his athleticism and footwork to force CLD to rush the confrontation, making him more predictable and easier to time for the takedown.
So we’ll see CLD strive to stay forceful and aggressive, but in his zeal he must remain measured to keep Allen at the end of his power kicks/strikes.
Meanwhile, Allen will need to set the striking stalwart up for a takedown attempt as soon as reasonably possible. Any stand-up battle between Allen and CLD spells trouble for Allen. Taking this fight to the floor is mandatory for Allen.
From the clasp or once inside the pocket and engaged with CLD, Allen will need to find a way to drag Duncan down. It’s highly unlikely Allen can win without grounding the Englishman and roughing him up with ground-and-pound, then transitioning to a submission attempt, which Allen is masterful at.
CLD must make this a stand-up battle while Allen must employ his grappling. This sets the stage for the fight.
Total in this fight: This is another fight where we see 3.5 Over -140 in some spots, yet elsewhere the total is lined to 4.5 Under -150.
Over 3.5 -140 is mighty attractive
Ismael Bonfim -120 vs. Francisco Prado +100
Lightweight (155 pounds)
This is a difficult fight to handicap, but it will be one of the easiest bouts on the card to watch, with aggressive, toe-to-toe throwdown action from bell to bell as these two South Americans tussle in Las Vegas.
Prado’s advantages are his height, his youth, his desperation, and the fact that he dropped from welterweight to lightweight. Prado dropping from welterweight to lightweight is the basis of this fight’s intrigue.
Prado enters this fight as the loser of his last four straight, which may help explain his decision to fight down to lightweight. The Argentine’s opponents in that four-fight welterweight run were fighters with merit, but none had an official ranking in the division.
Prado trains at Florida’s ATT. He is young, raw, tough, willing, and throws all his strikes/kicks/elbows and knees with maiming intent. His defense and grappling skills are lacking, which is why his fights are always flavorful.
Prado’s power is his forte, but his strike defense and grappling need tremendous improvement, which helps explain his ineptitude against higher-caliber UFC welterweights.
Prado is an all-action fighter who relies on his boxing and karate-based striking skills to pressure opponents, then try to overwhelm them.
For Brazilian Issy Bonfim, this fight is foundational to his staying in the UFC; the loser is more than likely to be sent packing.
Bonfim will be giving away size and age here, but his mixed martial arts arsenal is a bit more developed than Prado’s. Despite losing his last three bouts, Bonfim has competed against a strong set of UFC lightweights.
Bonfim has a positive net differential, while Prado shows a negative significant strikes-per-minute ratio. Bonfim’s takedown ability is pronounced, and his ability to halt the takedown stands at 71%.
These aspects, though seemingly nuanced, matter a lot to how this fight will unfold, with the wild card being how Bonfim handles Prado’s bulk and size.
Once the Bell rings for round one, fans will notice how much larger and thicker Prado is than Bonfim. Both fighters will try to hold the center of the octagon and initiate striking.
It will be up to the more well-rounded Bonfim to determine when and how long it takes him to try to ground the power-striking Argentine, then attempt to overwhelm him with his BJJ, where Bonfim is quite comfortable and Prado is not.
I handicap Prado’s size and his experience fighting larger men to be a major aspect of this fight. If he can make the 155-pound limit without looking drawn and sucked in, then Prado is a live wire.
I’m going to trust that Prado, at his age, can make this cut because his price in this spot seems more than fair.
UFC Vegas 122 Best Bet: Francisco Prado +100
Total in this fight: 1.5 -320 Over
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for this card there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
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