EPL Best Bets and Predictions October 10-11
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Liverpool vs. Manchester City
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
The Premier League returns this weekend after an extended three-week international break, with Matchday 6 offering a slate full of talking points. Will we see a continuation of the early season form, or will that long pause on domestic action mean we need a rebase on a few teams?
Team news will be more crucial than ever ahead of this weekend’s kickoffs, with some key players having played four internationals since last featuring domestically. Fatigue, travel, and limited preparation time squeeze goal tallies immediately after internationals, and that theory underpins four best bets on a typically tough card.
Manchester City went into the break with their tails up. Scoring five goals in front of their own fans to make it five wins from five, a perfect 15 points on the board, and sit pretty at the top of the table three points clear of Arsenal.
They return to action with those tails firmly between their legs! An independent commission found them guilty of 115 Premier League financial charges leveled against them. Sanctions have not yet been imposed, and the club has appealed, so the on-pitch consequences remain unclear for now, but it is hard to imagine the players will not be impacted in some form.
All of which is sure to crank up the atmosphere at what will be a raucous Anfield. I can already imagine Scousers across Merseyside burning the midnight oil scribbling up some witty songs to sing at their rivals.
Andoni Iraola has gotten off to a solid start on Merseyside, unbeaten in his seven competitive fixtures across all competitions with the Reds winning four of the last five. Only one of those five games saw four or more goals though, as the former Bournemouth manager looks to tighten up what has been, for a while, a leaky defense.
Replacing the ultra-attack-minded Jeremie Frimpong with the more balanced Ronald Araujo at right-back has had the desired impact and has drawn my eyes to playing the unders here. Even more so when you consider what Iraola has to deal with at the other end of the pitch.
Alexander Isak has rediscovered his Newcastle form with four goals. Cody Gakpo has shown why Liverpool were keen to hold on to him despite lots of interest from elsewhere with a goal and three assists. Both scored in their respective nations’ opening fixtures before returning to their club with injuries and are severe doubts for this clash.
There are also issues for the visitor’s attack. Erling Haaland played every second of Norway’s first three Nations League fixtures, scoring three times but looked really labored in the 2-1 defeat to Wales. He then gestured to go off 67 minutes into the final match against Portugal. Alarm bells are ringing, especially with Antoine Semenyo pulling out of Ghana’s squad due to the injury he picked up against Sunderland and Phil Foden still suspended.
A mix of new transitional management/personnel/tactics at both clubs, injury concerns, and a dip in scoring rates immediately after extended breaks, means the Asian Under 3 looks the value. Looking at the first game back for both clubs after the first two breaks last season saw Liverpool win 1-0 at Burnley and lose 2-1 at home to Manchester United. City beat United 3-0 and Everton 2-0 in two home games.
Maybe a tough position to take, but in my opinion, the right one.
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool vs Manchester City — Under 3 Asian Total at -125.
Arsenal vs. Leeds United
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
It is the champions that restart the Premier League action as they host Leeds in the early Saturday kick-off. It is a slot that none of the elite managers are particularly fond of, even more so following a three-week international break and ahead of a Champions League fixture on Tuesday.
Having swept all before them in their opening seven games of the season, it was something of a surprise that the Gunners were beaten by an impressive Brighton side. However, more concerning was the manner in which they fell apart in sliding to a convincing 3-0 defeat. The three-week break will have done little for Mikel Arteta’s mood.
We can’t overreact to one poor result/performance, as Arsenal have been exceptional for some time now and they remain strong -265 favorites here. Leeds sit fifth, are one of five unbeaten sides built on a miserly defense that has only conceded three times, but their recent record against Arsenal is woeful.
Since 2020, the two sides have met 10 times, with Arsenal winning nine, including each of the last eight. The aggregate scoreline is 27-5, with last season’s results reading 4-0 and 5-0 to the champions. However, I’m not betting on the moneyline or Asian Handicap here, but the man I think offers a better value route into getting the hosts onside.
Viktor Gyökeres has had a bit part to play in the Premier League so far this season, with limited minutes (29) and no goals. The international break has changed the picture. He scored in all four Nations League appearances for Sweden, extending a remarkable streak and rediscovering rhythm and confidence.
The 28-year-old has now scored in nine of his last 10 Nations League appearances, racking up an incredible 13 goals in the process. With Kai Havertz managing a knock, the door opens for a start or significant involvement against a Leeds side that has already shipped six goals against Chelsea in the League Cup.
Arsenal’s home record after internationals has historically been strong. They beat Nottingham Forest 3-0 immediately after the first break last term with Gyökeres on the scoresheet, and he also scored in both fixtures vs Leeds last season.
The Swede’s recent finishing form for country, combined with the likely increase in opportunity against a side that defends deep but can be stretched, makes the anytime scorer price attractive. Leeds will be organized, but one clear chance for a striker in this kind of form is often enough.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal vs Leeds United — Viktor Gyökeres to score @ +120.
Aston Villa vs. Brentford
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Aston Villa finally got a win before the break when they beat Tottenham 3-2, but their season has so far seen them leaky defensively and blunt in attack. Brentford have been compact and efficient, mixing positive results while staying difficult to break down, which means they travel to the Midlands unbeaten.
It was always likely to be a tricky start for Unai Emery, having seen a host of established players depart the club. The replacements have been impressive and will take a little time to settle, but the excellent Spaniard will get things right as he did last season after a slow start.
One of those new faces has caught my eye immediately with some excellent performances. Normally it is the flair players that take the headlines but, in this case, it is goalkeeper Zion Suzuki. The Japanese international is great with his feet but equally good with his hands, and he forms part of the reason why I am betting the unders in this game.
International breaks test the depth of squads in the Premier League, with most having a double-figure contingent scattered all over the globe. Neither Villa nor Brentford have the luxury of rotation the elite sides in the EPL have, and a combination of injury and fatigue could well bite in this first fixture back.
Recent head-to-heads have been tight; Brentford recorded 1-0 wins at both venues last season, while the League Cup tie last September ended 1-1. The previous four meetings have all comfortably cashed the under.
The Bees have been excellent under Keith Andrews and have an underrated defense, often posting low-scoring, controlled performances against similar opposition to the Villains. They were the first team to shut out the prolific Chelsea attack prior to the break and have only conceded four goals across the opening five match days.
Villa need points and will try to control the game at home, but apart from Spurs, their attacking fluency has been missing. Brentford are content to frustrate and counter. Post-break games often lack rhythm, so the under 2.5 at plus money offers solid value in a match that is expected to be cagey rather than open.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Brentford – Under 2.5 goals @ +120.
Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Selhurst Park hosts two sides still finding their feet under new management. Crystal Palace sit 15th with four points; Nottingham Forest are one point and two places better off. Both have shown defensive vulnerability at times, but their main problems are that they have both struggled to score goals.
This will be a big match for Oliver Glasner, who returns to the club he guided to an FA Cup and European trophy. He will be frustrated to have gone into the break having been the first side to fail to score against and beat newly promoted Coventry.
The Austrian ended the game with Liam Delap, Chris Wood and Igor Jesus on the pitch to illustrate he does have several striking options. There will also be relief that talisman and most creative player Morgan Gibbs-White only made four substitute appearances for England, totaling 44 minutes and returns injury-free.
At the other end, the well-organized Glasner has quickly stamped his mark on the defense. No side has faced fewer shots (52) than Forest and only Arsenal (14) fewer on target (15). He will be confident he has the know-how to shut out the struggling Eagles, and this is another game I love the look of the unders.
The history of this fixture more than backs that up. Since Forest were promoted back to the Premier League for the 2021/22 season, these clubs have met eight times, with every meeting cashing Under 2.5 goals. Five have ended 1-1!
Neither has the current momentum or personnel to force an open game to buck that trend, and both would be delighted to sign for a 1-0 win right now. As previously mentioned, the international break further tilts the market toward fewer goals.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest – Under 2.5 Goals @ -110.
