UFC Vegas 97 Picks & Predictions:

Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC Vegas 97 card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.

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MAIN EVENT:

Gilbert “Durinho Burns” (+154) vs. Sean Brady (-185)

Over 4.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+100)

Gilbert Burns has been a professional mixed martial artist since 2012 and is now 38 years old. He has done his time in the UFC, putting together a 15-7 record in the organization dating back to July of 2014. He was at the height of his power between December 2018 and May 2020 when he put together six wins in a row, including a victory versus former champion Tyron Woodley on his way to getting a title shot versus Kamaru Usman. He lost to the champion, and has proceeded to lose three of his six fights in the last three years. Every fighter he has defeated in that span has been 35 or older, and each fighter he has lost to has been at least two years his junior, and has not been over the pivotal age of 35 (Sean Brady is 31). In Burns’ last fight he was beating Jack Della Maddalena, and two out of three judges had him up two rounds to none on their scorecards before the third. He just needed to survive the final frame to get his hand raised as a +150 underdog. Instead he ate a knee with under two minutes left in the fight and was TKO’d by an opponent who literally had a broken arm (after blocking a kick).

Burns is highly skilled, highly dangerous, and has a veteran savvy that can only come from making nearly two dozen trips to the octagon. He also couldn’t keep it together for the last two minutes in a fight that would have put him on a path to a title shot. He has one victory via finish in his last eight fights, and is nowhere near as dangerous as the guy who had a run to a title shot. He still has power, he still is a black belt in BJJ, but how much does he want the championship at this point? He has branched out and has started spending time on ventures outside of the cage while telling reporters he still sees a path to winning the belt. You cannot be pursuing other ventures while trying to make it to the top of this organization. Right now I think he is trying to hold on, not move forward.

Brady is 16-1 as a professional mixed martial artist and 6-1 in the UFC. His one loss in the organization was a head scratcher at the time, he was knocked out as a -140 favorite versus an opponent who hadn’t won via KO in the previous six years. However, that loss came two years ago, and we know a bit more about just how good that opponent was. Since finishing Brady, Belal Muhammad has gone on to beat Burns via decision, and manhandle Leon Edwards for the welterweight title. Losses are never good, but this one has aged about as good as possible.

Brady has three submission victories, and three via decision. He is an extremely dangerous grappler, and most recently submitted Kelvin Gastelum, who was rag-dolled in exchanges on the mat for the majority of that fight. Brady also has a victory in a grappling match versus Craig Jones, a world class BJJ practitioner who has defeated no shortage of UFC fighters in submission wrestling matches, including Rinat Fakhretdinov, Gerald Meerschaert, Phil Rowe, Jake Shields, Chael Sonnen, Donald Cerrone, Anthony Johnson and, of course, Burns.

Both of these competitors have faced the current champ in recent history but overall Burns’ strength of schedule is much more impressive. Burns has more power in his hands, or at least he did at one point. Brady lands more volume but his striking defense is far from elite at distance, absorbing 5.81 significant strikes per minute at range. Burns will be very dangerous in this fight for at least a few rounds and I am concerned about Brady making his main event debut, entering a five round fight for the first time in the UFC. But I do not expect this fight to go the distance, and I do expect Brady to find a way to wear out Burns.

Fight Winner: Sean Brady

Bet: Burns/Brady Fight Does Not Go The Distance (-110) – Risk 1.1 units to win 1
Parlay Piece: See Below

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Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade (+250) vs. Natalia Silva (-310)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)

Jessica Andrade is a UFC veteran who will be walking into the octagon for the 28th time in her career against Natalia Silva. Five years ago she briefly wore the UFC Strawweight belt. She has since bounced up and down between fighting as a 115 pounder and as a 125 pound women’s flyweight. She has won her last two fights, one in each division. She is just 5’1” with a 62” reach and will be the stockier fighter in this fight at 125 pounds. Overall she lands an impressive 6.62 significant strikes per minute in the cage while also being an active grappler, landing 2.37 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. Defensively, she gets hit more than you’d like, with 5.37 significant strikes absorbed per minute while having just an okay takedown defense rate at 72%.

Silva is 17-5-1, but 5-0 in the UFC and still just 27 years old. Her future seems to be bright, she has two knockout victories as a member of the roster, and she won her UFC debut two years ago as a +200 underdog versus the always game Jasmine Jasudavicious. She has a three inch height and reach advantage and is also the more defensive sound striker, only absorbing 2.10 significant strikes per minute. That said, I have serious concerns about her strength of schedule. Since losing the strawweight belt, Andrade has mostly been big game hunting, taking fights with ranked opponents in whichever division the matchmakers give her. Sometimes the price is right to take a stand on a veteran that the market is disrespecting. This is one of those occasions for me.

Fight Winner: Jessica Andrade

Bet: Jessica Andrade (+250) – Risk 1 unit to win 2.5

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Kyle Nelson (+154) vs. Steve Garcia (-185)

Over 1.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-166)

Kyle Nelson looked to be on his way out of the UFC after beginning his career in the organization 1-4. But he made a breakthrough finding a draw versus Doo Ho Choi, and has since won three fights in a row, all as a +200 or worse underdog. He is not a fighter that jumps off the page with fluid athleticism or acrobatic striking. He is a grinder, he has a chin, and he stays in his opponents face from the first minute of the fight until the last. He also showed finishing power for the first time in several years versus Bill Algeo in March of this year. His recent results are much better than his fight statistics. He has sub 50% striking accuracy for his career, and gets hit nearly 5 times per minute. Nelson Missed weight by 2.5 pounds on Friday which is generally less than ideal for success on Saturday.

Steve Garcia was in a similar situation to Nelson when his UFC career began. He started 1-2 in the organization, then was paired with young phenom Chase Hooper which had the potential to be the beginning (and end) of Garcia’s farewell tour. But he won that fight via first round KO as +250 underdog, and has knocked out his subsequent three opponents as well. In his four fight finish streak he has been the underdog three times.

I think Garcia has the striking to win this thing on the feet with a KO, but Nelson is a tough opponent and should not be viewed as an easy out. I am cautiously optimistic Garcia can once again find the finish, but I am more comfortable just playing the moneyline.

Fight Winner: Steve Garcia

Bet: Steve Garcia (-185) – Risk 1.85 units to win 1

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Matt Schnell (+235) vs. Cody Durden (-290)

Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)

Recent memories from Matt Schnell fights have not been favorable for the 34 year old flyweight. He has been finished in three of his last four fights. However he did get a wild submission win versus Sumudaerji in the middle of the losing streak. That fight showed the best of Schnell, toughness, scrambling, and opportunistic submission attempts. Overall he is 6-6, 1 NC in the UFC and has been a game opponent for the absolute best of the best in the division. Three of his losses in the organization have come to eventual flyweight belt holders or title challengers. Three of his wins in the UFC are via submission, and nine of his 16 pro wins have also come via sub.

Cody Durden is 5-4-1 in the UFC and coming off consecutive losses. He was knocked out versus Bruno Silva in his last fight in a pick’em fight in which he was in control early. He seemingly ran out of gas and his lack of technical striking ended up being his downfall. Additionally, Durden is a replacement opponent for Schnell after Alessandro Costa withdrew and he did not get the full camp which may have been helpful when preparing to face an opponent with Schnell’s unique style.

This fight has the potential to be a frenetic affair. Durden is going to try to wrestle, and Schnell is going to chase submissions. Durden has been submitted in three of his four UFC losses. Schnell will have a slight height and reach advantage. He has also unquestionably faced much tougher competition.

Fight Winner: Matt Schnell

Bet: Matt Schnell (+245) – Risk 1 unit to win 2.45
Matt Schnell to win via submission (+750) – Risk 0.5 units to win 3.75 units

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Trevor Peek (-122) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+102)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)

This is one of the more old school fights the matchmakers have given us this summer. Until very recently, Trevor Peek didn’t know how to fight in any other style but to charge straight forward and wildly swing while getting tagged. He has recently mixed in wrestling to keep opponents honest and conserve energy, but no one is confusing him for a former All-American. He lands a lot, and gets hit alot.

Yanal Ashmouz is perhaps a bit more powerful than Peek while also being a little less accurate in his short, two fight UFC sample size. He made waves upsetting Sam Patterson as a +225 underdog with a first round KO, but returned to earth after losing a decision as a slight dog. Overall this fight should be fun to watch, but I am not sure which fighter Ashmouz is, the guy who can land walk off KO’s versus legit UFC opponents, or is he the guy who got out struck 2 to 1 in his second fight while also being taken down twice?

Fight Winner: Trevor Peek

Bet: Pass

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Rongzhu (-250) vs. Chris “Taco” Pedilla (+205)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+205)

I was at the UFC Apex for Chris Padilla’s UFC debut. He was +340 underdog and proved to be the more durable and well rounded fighter for the four and a half minutes the fight lasted. Padilla won via submission against James Llontop. Padilla also has beaten fringe UFC level competition in lesser organizations and even had a loss in Bellator to now five-fight UFC  veteran Gabe Green. His record is a relatively modest 14-6, but not all regional competition is created equal. He is on a four fight win streak, and has finished his opponents in his last six victories.

Rongzhu is getting a second chance at UFC stardom. He went 1-2 in the Organization in 2021-2022, returned to the regional scene, then began his ascent back into the club through the Road to UFC tournament that gives Asian fighters a shot at climbing to the top of the sport. He is just 24 years old, has a 25-5 record with 14 knockouts and seven submissions. I do not consider the strength of competition he faced in his first UFC stint all that impressive and veterans of the Road to UFC promotion more often than not flame out on the big stage. Additionally there is enough data on Rongzhu to see that his striking defense is a real liability in a 155 pound weight class full of fighters with hand speed and power.

Fight Winner: Chris Padilla

Bet: Chris Padilla (+220) – Risk 1 unit to win 2.2

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Isaac “The Midwest Choppa” Dulgarian (-2800) vs. Brendon Marotte (+1300)

Over 1.5 Rounds (+250) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-345)

Isaac Dulgarian was the next big thing in the featherweight division, until he faced known hype killer Christian Rodriguez in his last fight. Dulgarian lost that bout as a -225 favorite via split decision. Overall he is still young and relatively inexperienced with a 6-1 professional record. He is a great grappler and has two wins via ground and pound, and another two via submission. Dulgarian’s striking numbers are perhaps a bit suppressed due to the nature of his two fights in the organization but regardless, just 2.08 significant strikes landed per minute over the course of nearly 20 minutes in the cage is an outlier number and not the good type.

Brandon Marotte got a shot in the UFC as a late replacement opponent for Terrance McKinney. He lost that fight 20 seconds into the first round via knee and ground strikes. Prior to that he fought in low level MMA organizations. However, he is a member of the famed New England Cartel team so I would not expect him to be quite as bad as he looked in his debut. His gym is known for high paced, volume striking, and Dulgarian does have sub par striking defense numbers.That said these odds are ridiculous, and there is too much unknown to take a shot on either side.

Fight Winner: Isaac Dulgarian

Bet: Pass

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Andre “Mascote” Lima (-162) vs. Felipe dos Santos (+136)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-245) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+185)

Andre Lima became a minor UFC celebrity earlier this year when he made his debut in the organization. His opponent was disqualified in that fight for biting. And it wasn’t just a nibble, there were defined teeth marks in Lima’s arm, they were so visible he had the indentations preserved as a permanent tattoo. Despite the dramatic and strange finish, that fight was looking like it would be a highly competitive contest. And in his most recent fight versus Mitch Raposo he went to a split decision after missing weight as -320 favorite.

Felipe dos Santos is 1-1 in the UFC and also coming off of a split decision victory as a -300 favorite. Prior to that he lost his debut as a big underdog to Manel Kape via decision. Statistically the striking advantage should go to Andre Lima, but part of that is due to the extreme divergence in the level of UFC competition the fighters have faced. That said, I am not ready to commit to either one of these fighters.

Fight Winner: Felipe dos Santos

Bet: Pass

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Gabriel “Mosquitinho” Santos (-270) vs. Yizha (+220)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)

Gabriel Santos is a former LFA champion but has quickly learned that belt doesn’t count for much in the UFC. He is now 0-2 in the organization and most recently was knocked out as a -230 favorite versus David Onama. But before that he forced a split decision versus the still undefeated and surging Lerone Murphy. That fight was a bit controversial, 17 of 19 media scorecards on MMADecisions.com scored the fight for Santos. Before joining the UFC roster he was 10-0 and he actually has some worthwhile wins on his resume from lesser organizations, including versus Elves Brenner who is currently 3-2 in the UFC.

Yizha is another fighter getting a second shot at the UFC. He navigated the Road to UFC tournament, lost via split decision. Then returned to Road to UFC to repeat the process. Yizha is 25-4 at 27 years old, like most emerging Chinese fighters he has had no problem finding a fight in his home country. That said there is lots of data on him because Road to UFC stats are tracked, he wants to wrestle more than strike, which is probably not the answer versus a guy like Santos. “Mosquitinho” needs to get the monkey off his back and this is the right matchup to make a statement.

Fight Winner: Gabriel Santos

Bet: Gabriel Santos to win inside the distance (+165) – Risk 1 to win 1.65

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Jaqueline “Jacque” Amorim (-325) vs. Vanessa “Lil Monster” Demopoulous (+260)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)

Jaqueline Amorim is a true finisher, which is an adjective that is hard to come by in the women’s strawweight division. She is 2-1 in the UFC, and 8-1 as a pro. All of her victories have come inside the distance, six via submission and her lone loss came in her UFC debut via decision. She is a former LFA strawweight champion and although her run to the title in that organization was against even worse competition than usual. That said I am an Amorim believer, in her last fight she was a +150 underdog versus Cory McKenna and won via armbar in under two minutes.

Vanessa Demopoulous is 5-2 in the UFC. She has been the underdog in six of her seven fights. This woman shows up to scrap everytime the organization calls her name. In May she was a +290 underdog versus Emily Ducote but edged out a decision, prior to that she was +250 versus Kanako Murata. There will be many Demopoulous fans tempted to take her in this spot because she is once again facing a younger, hyped-up opponent with a better finishing pedigree. She has turned away almost every prior opponent who fit a similar bill. That said the numbers indicate that Vanessa has been winning with unsustainable metrics. She eats almost two more significant strikes per minute than she lands, her striking accuracy number is poor at 41%, and her strike defense rate is also 41%, her grappling numbers are abysmal, just 11% takedown accuracy and 30% defense rate. Additionally she is just 5’2” with a 59” reach and 35 years old.

Fight Winner: Jacqueline Amorim

Bet: Jacqueline Amorim inside the distance (+215) – Risk 1 to win 2.15

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Andre Petroski (-325) vs. Dylan Budka (+260)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | under 2.5 Rounds (+135)

I’ve got a love/hate relationship with Andre Petroski, mainly due to his style coupled with his gas tank. He is a great wrestler, early in fights he almost always is controlling the grappling exchanges. But as the fights get into the final frame he slows down, and is usually sucking air just trying to avoid getting finished. And there is also his fight versus Jacob Malkoun where he won the first round as a +200 underdog then knocked himself out on his opponents hip in the first minute of round 2. That said, he rebounded nicely and dominated Josh Fremd for the majority of three rounds just under two months ago. His grappling aggression is unique in the 185 pound weight class, landing 4.07 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. His striking is just enough to keep his opponents honest, 50% accuracy and 50% defense rate. And despite him gassing out late in fights, he still usually gets the job done and is 8-2 in mixed martial arts’ top organization.

Dylan Budka has N.F.L. (Not For Long in the UFC) written all over him. He made his debut versus Cesar Almeida, tried to win a grappling match versus the elite striker, gassed out in round two and was knocked out in straightforward fashion. He also missed weight on Friday by 2.5 pounds which indicates he isn’t taking this seriously, he is sick or injured, or he thinks he needs the extra weight to deal with Petroski’s wrestling. I truly believe Petroski handles this opponent nine out of 10 times. These odds only indicate the books believe it happens 76% of the time.

Fight Winner: Andre Petroski

PARLAY: Andre Petroski + Sean Brady (+103) – Risk 1 to win 1.03

Zygmantas Ramaska (+110) vs. Nathan Fletcher (-130)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)

This fight was scheduled to take place two weeks ago but was delayed due to an unknown medical issue on the side of Fletcher. Since then the odds have shifted towards Ramaska. These men were competitors on the most recent season of the Ultimate Fighter, but sustained injuries and had their dreams dashed out due to bad luck. Nathan Fletcher is getting this chance because he has an 8-1 record in Cage Warriors which has fed plenty of fighters to the UFC roster. Ramaska has mostly fought in Eastern European regional organizations that generally lack high potential talent. These fighters have 17 combined professional wins, with only one reaching the scorecards. I think we are getting a big discount on Fletcher here. But I don’t necessarily want to trust the smoke when I don’t have any actionable intel. We are getting a discount on the betting favorite.

Fight Winner: Nathan Fletcher

Bet: Nathan Fletcher (-130) – Risk 1.3 units to win 1

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Best Bets Recap

• Burns/Brady Fight Does Not Go the Distance (-110) – Risk 1.1 units to win 1
• Parlay: Andre Petroski/Sean Brady (+103) – Risk 1 unit to win 1.03
• Jessica Andrade (+250) vs Silva – Risk 1 unit to win 2.5
• Steve Garcia (-185) vs Nelson – Risk 1.85 units to win 1
• Matt Schnell (+245) – Risk 1 unit to win 2.45
• Matt Schnell to win via Submission (+750) – Risk 0.5 units to win 3.75
• Chris Padilla (+220, SuperBook) vs Rongzhu – Risk 1 unit to win 2.2
• Gabriel Santos to Win Inside the Distance (+165) vs Yizha – Risk 1 unit to win 1.65
• J. Amorim Inside the Distance (+215) vs Demopoulous – Risk 1 unit to win 2.15
• Nathan Fletcher (-130) vs Ramaska – Risk 1.3 units to win 1

*ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK