UFC Vegas 99 – Hernandez vs. Pereira: Best Bets, Odds and Predictions:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 99 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 1-8 (-5.51 Units, 68.45% ROI)
Article History: 89-139 (-33.78 Units, -13.5% ROI)
Since 2020: 641-603 (+183.37 Units, 10.93% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 6-6 (50%)
Article History: 192-148 (56.47%)
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Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez (-135) vs. Michel “Demolidor” Pereira (+114)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)
Anthony Hernandez is an enigma in the UFC’s middleweight division. He basically never starts a fight well and almost always comes from behind to win. That is tough to do versus the best of the best in MMA’s top organization, but somehow it is working.
After beginning his UFC career with a 1-2 record, Hernandez has won five consecutive fights, with four of those wins coming inside the distance and none of those finishes coming in the first round. His gas tank is ever-present. He has absolutely zero quit and has made a career fighting himself out of positions that would have lesser fighters throwing in the towel.
His opponent in this main event is a unique finisher who makes a point to make sure the damage he does is the type you cannot come back from. Hernandez is an elite grappler and submitted former BJJ world champion Rodolfo Vieira as a +400 underdog. He also has two career knockout victories, including one in the UFC. However, his hands are most dangerous from a dominant grappling position and not standing at range.
Michel Pereira has found new life after moving up to the middleweight division after killing himself to make it down to welterweight. The cut was not good for his career for a number of reasons, #1 being he missed weight twice and was often looking shaky in the third round because he had to fully diminish himself to make weight.
Since moving up to 185 pounds, Pereira has been a force to be reckoned with. He has always been an exciting fighter, but he is joining the “must watch/don’t blink” tier. He has won all three fights at middleweight in 66 seconds or less. One of these victories has come via knockout. The other two have been submissions. But his quality of competition at 185 pounds has been far from elite, with only one of those opponents, the grappling maximalist Andre Petroski, having a winning record in the organization.
I do not necessarily think Hernandez has fought a murderer’s row of opponents. But his strength of schedule is hands down more impressive than that of Michel Pereira, especially in the middleweight division. Additionally, some of the statistics these guys have put on paper are mind-blowing: the first being that Anthony Hernandez is actually the slightly more accurate striker, the second being that Hernandez’s average UFC fight time is two minutes shorter than that of Michel Pereira, despite Pereira’s recent early finish streak.
FIGHT WINNER: Anthony Hernandez
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: Anthony Hernandez (-135) vs Michel Pereira, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
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Rob Font (+400) vs. Kyler “The Matrix” Phillips (-535)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Rob Font is an MMA legend despite never wearing the UFC belt. At 38 years old, this will be his 18th trip to the UFC cage and the first fight in his 10th year on the roster. He has sent numerous prospects back down to the bottom of the ladder and provided challenges to guys who have worn and fought for UFC titles. He is just 1-4 in his last five UFC fights, but all four losses were to elite, championship-level fighters. His win was a KO versus a young upstart on a winning streak, Adrian Yanez. Font showed the kid that there are levels to this game and won via first-round knockout. Font is known as a charter member of the New England Cartel gym, but for this camp, he spent time at Tristar and got some work in with upset specialist Aiemann Zahabi, so who knows which version of the veteran will take the cage…
Kyler Phillips is doing things the right way in the UFC. He is taking his time, building experience and stacking wins versus progressively more impressive opponents. Most recently, he cruised to a decision versus the veteran Pedro Munhoz. However, despite the three-fight win streak and 6-1 UFC record, I have real questions about Phillips’ game. He has elite grappling, and he can control virtually anyone on the ground. But his striking power is absolutely an outlier, for the wrong reasons, among elite UFC bantamweights. There just isn’t a lot of damage in his fists. Additionally, he is almost too patient in grappling exchanges. He’d rather ride out a decision than force a finish. That is usually smart, but it also allows opponents to stick around.
I have to make a play on Rob Font at this price. He has turned back plenty of young upstarts with much more finishing potential than Kyler Phillips. He has also seen his fair share of grapplers and found ways to get his hand raised. My biggest reservation about this position is the run of chalk we have seen over the course of the last several UFC cards.
FIGHT WINNER: Rob Font
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: Rob Font (+400) vs Phillips, Risk 1 Unit to Win 4
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Charles “InnerG” Johnson (-245) vs “The Tibetan Eagle” Sumudaerji (+200)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Charles Johnson was a guy scraping by near the bottom of the UFC’s flyweight division, but his fortunes have as of late. After losing three fights in a row, he has won three in a row as an underdog, including a KO victory over young upstart Joshua Van. He always had skills but it was rare for him to put together a clean 15 minutes and get his hand raised consistently. He now has confidence, highlights, and is getting a shot on another main card. The key to his recent success has been defense, specifically significant head strike defense. None of his last three opponents have come close to landing half their head shots. Meanwhile, he makes his shots count and lands more volume every time he enters the cage.
Sumadaerji is 3-3 in the UFC and on a two-fight losing streak, with both losses coming inside the distance. He was recently submitted in the first round by Tim Elliott, and before that, was submitted in a wild back-and-forth brawl versus Matt Schnell. That said, Sumadaerji is a more efficient fighter with a better striking accuracy rate than Johnson, and he has landed 100% of the takedowns he has attempted in the cage. I do look for this to change in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Charles Johnson
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Jake Hadley (-500) vs Cameron Smotherman (+380)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Jake Hadley was a flyweight that I considered overrated for the last few years. But he is no longer a flyweight. As a bantamweight, he took a short-notice fight versus a hyped-up prospect in Caolan Loughran. He won an easy decision despite virtually everything being stacked against him. He was supposed to fight Brady Hiestand on this card, but Hiestand withdrew, and now Smotherman is getting a second shot at UFC glory.
At his best, Hadley is a striker who controls range and pace, and mixes in takedowns to keep his opponents on the back foot. He is not much of a finish threat, but he has no trouble scoring a ton against defensively deficient fighters. He is also a guy who is never looking for a way out of the cage and will go all out to the final bell regardless of how the bout is trending.
Smotherman loss in Contender Series to Charalampos Grigoriou which is a bit concerning because Grigoriou has proven to be nowhere near UFC quality in limited opportunities. Smotherman is still relatively young at age 27, so his MMA story is far from over. I do not think this is the spot for him to prove he is UFC quality. And a lot will be determined when we see the matchmaking for the second fight on his new UFC contract.
FIGHT WINNER Jake Hadley
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Darren “The Damage” Elkins (-122) vs Daniel “The Pit” Pineda (+102)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Although Darren Elkins nickname is “The Damage,” there is a good chance he has received more damage than he has given out in the UFC. That doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of hurting opponents, but the overwhelming theme of his matchmaking is someone is usually looking absolutely terrible before the final bell. Overall, Elkins is 18-10 in the UFC, so experience is not a question. How much is left in the tank is perhaps a bit more relevant. He is 2-2 in his last four fights, but he is just 4-6 in the last six years. Generally speaking, he dispenses of opponents in the bottom quarter of the UFC roster with ease and struggles with opponents in the top quarter. So the question becomes, where does Daniel Pineda rank?
Pineda is another UFC veteran who is perhaps on the wrong trajectory. He is 1-2 in his last three fights dating back to 2023. If we go back to his return to the UFC in 2020, he is 2-3, 1 NC, with the wins coming against Herbert Burns (2-4 UFC Record) and Tucker Lutz (1-3 UFC record). He lost to Nathaniel Wood as a +350 underdog via decision in July, but his other two losses in this streak have come versus over-the-hill fighters in Alex Caceres and Cub Swanson. Additionally, on paper, Elkins is the more effective volume striker, the more defensive striker, and more effective at both landing and defending against takedowns.
FIGHT WINNER: Darren Elkins
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: Darren Elkins (-122) vs Pineda, Risk 1.22 Units to Win 1
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Matheus Nicolau (+180) vs Asu Almabayev (-218)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
It is rare for a fighter to make me think of classic German literature, but Matheus Nicolau’s UFC career has been a Faustian Dilemma… “Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it…” Nicolau got a second chance at the UFC after a forgettable run in the organization after a stint on The Ultimate Fighter. He came back and won four fights in a row versus fighters with much better reputations and resumes. He got what he wished for, ranked competition, in his next two fights. And that’s exactly why he should have been careful because he was matched versus two guys with power and bad intentions and got his head knocked off versus Brandon Royval and Alex Perez. Now he is back to being an underdog, a role in which he is 3-0 in the UFC. Almabayev isn’t the power puncher he saw in his last two trips to the cage.
Asu Almabayev is 3-0 in the UFC. He won via rear naked choke in his debut versus Ode Osbourne, but has gone to the cards in his last two fights (as a -600 and -560 favorite versus CJ Vergara and Jose Johnson). He is 20-2 as a professional with three wins via knockout, all of which have come in tiny promotions versus opponents who won’t be lighting the MMA world on fire anytime soon. That said, he is a dangerous grappler and can control virtually any opponent. A BJJ practitioner at Nicolau’s level will be a unique challenge.
FIGHT WINNER: Asu Almabayev
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: Pass
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Brad Katona (+185) vs Jean Matsumoto (-225)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-375) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+270)
Brad Katona is all heart. It is admirable and impressive and a trait that can’t be picked up in the gym, no matter how many hours you spend on the mats. But his physical ability is his limiting factor. He is not overly strong, does not possess difference-making striking power, and is not a guy who can impose his will on opponents unless the fight is in its final phases and he has sufficiently depleted his opponent’s gas tank.
Jean Matsumoto had every reason in the world to gas out in his UFC debut versus Dan Argueta. Young fighters regularly crash after the first round when breaking the seal on their UFC career. The pace Argueta set was absolutely grueling, and Matsumoto had to use a ridiculous amount of grappling defense to avoid getting finished. But he didn’t gas out. He didn’t get finished. He turned the tables on the veteran Argueta and won via guillotine in the final second of round 2. Matsumoto opened my eyes because he showed a veteran will in a fight where errors would have been excused due to him being green.
I am not sure if Jean Matsumoto can finish Brad Katona. I am sure he can survive Katona’s death by 1,000 cuts style and is the much more likely fighter to do damage.
FIGHT WINNER: Jean Matsumoto
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: PARLAY: Johnson/Hadley/Matsumoto (+144), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.44
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Joselyne Edwards (-250) vs Tamires Vidal (+205)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-410) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+290)
Joselyne Edwards looks terrible in the cage virtually every time she makes the walk, win or lose. She is 4-4 in the organization, with two wins via split decision after missing the bantamweight limit of 136. I have won money betting on her as a dog. No more. She is just too inconsistent, and is in too many close fights. She isn’t a finisher, and given the state of UFC judging, the idea of laying -250 with her versus absolutely anyone is not something I would wish on my worst enemy.
Speaking of enemies, Edwards’ enemy in this bout is also a fighter who struggles with consistency. Tamires Vidal won her UFC debut as a short favorite via Ramona Pascual. She got it done in the first round with a flying knee, and the sky was the ceiling. Also, consider the fact she has a (controversial) win versus Allin Perez in Samurai Fight House and a win over PFL veteran Martina Jindrova in another small organization. There is perhaps a resume you can sink your teeth into. But her more recent history is a bit concerning. She lost to Melissa Gatto via body shot in the third round in May, but Gatto was a late replacement opponent after Hailey Cowan dropped out. Prior to that, she lost a split decision as a -250 favorite versus Montserrat Rendon after dealing with a medical issue that forced her out of a fight scheduled to take place a few months earlier.
FIGHT WINNER: Tamires Vidal
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: PASS
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Jessica Penne (+154) vs Elise Reed (-185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Jessica Penne has been around since the beginning of the UFC’s women’s flyweight division. She was a part of Season 20 of The Ultimate Fighter that birthed her career and those of future champs Carla Esparza and Rose Namajunas. Penne also fought for the belt versus Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2015 (loss via KO). This is all to say, politely, she has been around for a while, and also not so politely, she is old at age 41. She also has fallen on some tough times. Since 2022, she is 0-2 and was submitted by Tabatha Ricci in her most recent bout in March 2023. She won twice in 2021, but before that, she hadn’t been active since 2017!
Elise Reed is on no one’s short list to contend for a belt (well, maybe her direct family considers her elite). She is 3-4 in the UFC and has traded wins for losses since joining the organization in 2021. She is coming off a loss 13 months ago versus Lupita Godinez. She has 0 marquee wins and 0 quality losses. The best thing she has going for her versus Penne is a 10-year age advantage.
FIGHT WINNER: Jessica Penne
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: Pass
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Melissa Martinez (-148) vs Alice Ardelean (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-375) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+270)
Melissa Martinez is 0-1 in the UFC, a loss to Elise Reed on September 10th…. 2022. She had another bout fizzle out but has mostly been outside the cage. Her previous UFC resume is a bit concerning as she mostly fought fighters with five pro fights or less, none of which had overwhelming records in a Combat organization not exactly known for the depth of its women’s divisions.
Alice Ardelean was supposed to be a layup for local favorite Shauna Bannon back in the UK in late July. That fight ultimately ended up as a split decision loss for Ardelean but she represented herself well as Bannon failed to capitalize on available openings. That said, she doesn’t have a winning record in any organization she has fought for 3+ times.
FIGHT WINNER: Alice Ardelean
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: PASS
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Austen Lane (+275) vs Robelis Despaigne (-345)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+190) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-250)
I can’t help but think the UFC is trying to send a message to Austen Lane, and that message is not, “We believe in your potential, and we cannot wait to see you win a belt one day!” Lane keeps paired up with strikers with absolutely terrible intentions. He was knocked out in his first Contender Series bout versus the terrible Greg Hardy. He then got a second chance and beat an inexperienced foe. Since then, he had a fight versus Justin Tafa cut short due to an eye poke, a rematch in which Lane was KO’d in the first round, then a fight versus Jhonata Diniz where he was again knocked out (this time in the second round after landing a takedown round 1).
If you are tracking at home, Lane’s UFC opponents have been a one-punch knockout master in Justin Tafa and a decorated kickboxer in Jhonata Diniz. Both guys imposed their will. Now, he is fighting an Olympic Taekwondo medalist in Robelis Despaigne. Lane will want to try to get his takedowns going. That is what he did for a round versus Diniz, but when the second round started, the takedowns didn’t come, and the finish followed. Despaigne won his UFC debut with his striking but lost the follow-up when Waldo Cortes-Acosta successfully implemented a grappling gameplan. I do not think Lane has the striking to close the distance, and I expect Despaigne’s hype train to be re-railed.
FIGHT WINNER: Robelis Despaigne
UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BET: PASS
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UFC VEGAS 99 BEST BETS RECAP
– PARLAY: Charles Johnson/Jake Hadley/Jean Matsumoto (+144), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.44
– Darren Elkins (-122) vs Pineda, Risk 1.22 Units to Win 1
– Rob Font (+400) vs Phillips, Risk 1 Unit to Win 4
– Anthony Hernandez (-135) vs Michel Pereira, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
