The First Strike team is here for UFC 320 with a stacked card featuring two title fights — and we’ve got your full betting breakdowns right here. Below, you’ll find detailed model analysis, key stats, and value plays for your fight night.
🎧 Catch the full breakdown with Dave Ross, Rob Moreno, and special guest Reed Kuhn on this week’s episode of First Strike:
After a 2-1 performance at UFC Perth, El Modelo (The First Strike predictive model) holds steady at 65.5% and now stands at 135-71-10 on the year. This week, we’ve got a deep card with a few decisive plays and others that toe the trap line. And with two title fights, including a rematch in the main event, we’re going to be tested on where the numbers stop and the narrative begins.
Let’s get it going.
Josh Emmett (+380) vs Youssef Zalal (-500)
Does Josh Emmett still have it?
At 40 years old, Emmett enters this one 1-3 in his last four, most recently dropping a decision to Lerone Murphy. It’s not the worst loss by any means, but it’s part of a troubling trend. Three of his five total losses have come in the last two years, all against top-flight competition — Topuria, Yair, and Murphy. It’s been a tough run, and the wear is starting to show.
Across from him, 29-year-old Youssef Zalal is quietly red-hot. He’s riding a 7-fight win streak, hasn’t lost since 2021, and appears to be ascending while Emmett fades.
Let’s go to the numbers.
- xR% heavily favors Zalal at 68%, while Emmett checks in at just 47% — a red flag for any fighter.
- Emmett spends 88% of his time at distance, relying heavily on power. He’s landing 3.75 sig. strikes/min, but with a -0.71 differential.
- Zalal’s output is slightly lower at 3.07 sig. strikes/min, but with a far cleaner +1.27 differential.
What Emmett does bring is power — 12 career UFC knockdowns — and that cannot be ignored. He’s only been stopped twice and did go five rounds with Ilia Topuria. He’s as gritty as they come.
But defensively, the numbers are tough:
- Emmett absorbs 4.46 sig. strikes/min, while Zalal only absorbs 1.80.
- Emmett’s head strike accuracy sits at a poor 28%.
And then there’s the grappling — a potential fight-shifter:
- Zalal has landed 19 takedowns in 4 UFC fights, with 12 submission attempts and a 61% control rate.
- Emmett’s takedown defense? Just 47%.
The model loves the younger fighter here. Zalal debuts with a score of 77 — a full A+ grade. He’s a strong parlay piece at -395, and there may be value in submission (+550) or even a safer decision prop (-190) depending on your risk tolerance.
Jiri Prochazka (-175) vs Khalil Rountree Jr. (+145)
Two men. One shared nemesis: Alex Pereira.
Both Jiri and Khalil have been stopped by Pereira — Jiri twice — but both are coming off wins over another shared opponent, Jamahal Hill.
Jiri is the more accomplished of the two. Far superior strength of schedule.
- A former champ. 5 UFC wins by stoppage, no decisions.
- Coming off a TKO win over Hill in January.
Khalil’s been on a quieter run:
- 6-2 since 2021, with a decision win over Hill as well.
- A total of 7 UFC knockouts, 4 stoppage losses.
But statistically? It’s messy.
- xR% is rough for both: Jiri at 53%, Khalil at 46%.
- Jiri lands 5.74 sig. strikes/min but absorbs 5.70 — nearly even.
- Khalil lands just 3.79/min with a -0.45 differential.
So while Jiri creates chaos, Khalil relies on precision. But despite 14 knockdowns, Khalil’s head strike accuracy is just 29% surprisingly. He just makes those punches count when they do land.
Grappling? Don’t count on it.
- Khalil: 1 takedown attempt, 0 landed.
- Jiri: Only 3 takedowns in his UFC career.
This one’s a stylistic clash. Chaos vs Calm. Volume vs Power. And while the model usually dislikes fighters like Jiri Prochazka — ones who eat shots and live dangerously — it still goes his way here.
- C-grade score, but he’s currently around -180 to –160 depending where you shop.
I find it a playable number for a volatile fighter. I’ll be keeping Jiri on my slip and hoping the chaos favors the model this time.
Merab Dvalishvili (-400) (c) vs Cory Sandhagen (+310)
Bantamweight Title Fight
There’s no denying it — Merab is known as The Machine for a reason. Undefeated since 2018, now going for his third straight title defense in 2025, and coming off a submission win over Sean O’Malley in June. He is relentless, suffocating, and deceptively effective on the feet.
Sandhagen is no slouch. He’s long been on the verge of breaking through, and is 4-1 in his last five with only a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in that stretch. His most recent win came via TKO (knee injury) over Deiveson Figueiredo.
Let’s go stat-for-stat:
- xR%: Sandhagen sits at 71%, but Merab is even higher at 81%.
- Merab lands 4.31 sig. strikes/min with a +1.83 differential.
- Cory’s numbers are also sharp: 5.06 sig. strikes/min with a +1.72 differential.
So what separates them?
Grappling.
- Merab has landed 97 takedowns, the most in UFC history. He could be the first to hit 100 this weekend.
- His pace is absurd: 9.44 attempts per 5 minutes, landing 3.37 of them.
Once again, Cory’s no slouch, either:
- 18 takedowns, 65% control rate, and 63% takedown defense.
But he hasn’t dealt with anyone quite like Merab Dvalishvili.
The model is all in on the champ.
- A+ grade, one of the highest of the card.
He’s a big favorite at -400, so it’s a prop or parlay spot. Merab by decision sits around -200, but if you’re feeling frisky, submission at +700 could be a fun sweat.
Another market I’ll be looking for is Total Takedowns Landed in the fight for Merab Dvalishvili. He should blow past 100 this weekend.
Magomed Ankalaev (-260) (c) vs Alex Pereira (+210)
Light Heavyweight Title Rematch
We’ve seen this one before — back in March, when Ankalaev took the belt from Pereira by decision. Now, they run it back.
Since then, not much has changed — except that Ankalaev is now a larger favorite.
The numbers are tight:
- xR%: Ankalaev at 77%, Pereira at 59%.
- Pereira lands 5.00 sig. strikes/min with a +1.50 differential.
- Ankalaev lands 3.66 sig. strikes/min with a +1.20 differential.
- Both absorb under 3.50 sig. strikes/min, which is elite for strikers.
Ankalaev has the grappling edge:
- 89% control rate in clinch/ground time.
- 10 total takedowns, low volume but calculated.
- Pereira has an impressive 79% takedown defense. Even forcing Ankalaev to go 0 for 12 in their first matchup.
So what does the model say?
Still leans Ankalaev, but gives him an F grade.
The score improved slightly after the win in March, but not nearly enough to justify the -260 price tag. He was only -120 in their first meeting.
This one fits the Trap Favorite mold for the model. It’s not about fading the model, it’s about finding bad grades from the model we can attack. Cut your unit down and jump on an underdog.
I’ll be looking at Pereira +210 as a live ‘dog — especially with that game-changing left hook always lurking.
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