The UFC closes out its 2025 pay-per-view schedule with a loaded UFC 323 card featuring a bantamweight title rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan, as well as a flyweight title fight between champion Alexandre Pantoja and rising contender Joshua Van.
With the end of year break around the corner and just one more event left on the calendar, bettors are looking to end the year strong.
Catch up with this week’s First Strike episode featuring both Zayd Hussein & Nick Kalikas. Big fights called for a bigger episode.
As always, we’ll lean on the numbers, model projections, and recent performance data to highlight where the edge might lie, especially with a few live underdogs worth a second look.
Let’s get into the UFC 323 predictions.
Maycee Barber (-175) vs Karine Silva (+150)
Maycee Barber comes into this one riding a six-fight win streak, even if her schedule’s been a little inconsistent. We last saw her in March 2024, and before that, back in June 2023…but wins are wins. Her last loss came all the way back in 2021 to Alexa Grasso, and since then, she’s put together a quietly strong run.
Karine Silva is 5-1 in the UFC since debuting in 2022, most recently bouncing back with a decision win over Dione Barbosa in August after dropping one to Viviane Araujo.
- Age advantage: Barber is 5 years younger.
- xR% edge: Slightly with Maycee at 64% vs 58%.
- Strength of schedule: Leans Barber, who’s faced the tougher lineup over the past few years.
Here’s some numbers:
- Striking output:
- Maycee Barber: 4.36 sig. strikes landed per minute, with a strong +1.55 differential. She keeps it clean defensively too, only 2.81 absorbed per minute.
- Karine Silva: Just 2.84 landed per minute, with a near-even +0.09 differential. She absorbs about 2.75 per minute, so she’s not getting tagged often, but she’s not doing much offensively either.
- Accuracy concerns:Karine lands only 39% of her significant strikes overall, and just 28% to the head — which is very low and limits her damage potential.
Where Karine might look to make this gritty is in the grappling:
- Control rates:
- Karine Silva: 59% control rate in clinch/ground time
- Maycee Barber: 39%, so less likely to dominate on the mat and clinch
- Takedowns:
- Karine: 10 takedowns (53% accuracy) and 6 sub attempts, with 3 submission wins in the UFC
- Maycee: 50% takedown defense. It’s not terrible, but not bulletproof either
- Karine herself has just 14% takedown defense, which makes it unlikely she can control this fight if it starts going the other way
El Modelo sides with Maycee Barber, and fairly strongly. It gives her a 70% win probability, while current odds of -175 imply just 63.64%. There’s a little value on Maycee, but she’s nearing the price ceiling. So if the line keeps climbing, tread lightly.
Terrance McKinney (+145) vs Chris Duncan (-165)
This one could be chaos.
Terrance McKinney is riding a two-fight win streak, a submission and a TKO win, both in 2025. He’s 4-1 in his last five and seems to be finding a better balance between his explosiveness and patience.
Chris Duncan is on a solid streak of his own, three wins in a row, and also 4-1 in his last five. His xR% sits slightly higher than McKinney’s at 67% to 62%, but style makes fights… and McKinney’s style is violence.
- Important note:Terrance McKinney has never seen the scorecards in his professional career. 17 wins, 7 losses. All by finish. You don’t get paid by the hour with T-Wrecks. Judges can take the fight off.
Let’s see what the numbers tell us:
- Striking:
- McKinney: A wild 6.96 significant strikes per minute, and an excellent +3.88 differential. Absorbs just 3.09 per minute.
- Duncan: 4.34 landed per minute, but only a +0.22 differential, and his 36% head strike accuracy raises concerns about efficiency and damage. Only 1 knockdown scored in his UFC career.
- Grappling & control:
- Both fighters are strong when the fight hits the mat. Both over 80% control rate in clinch/ground time.
- McKinney is more aggressive in pursuit though:
- He attempts 6.26 takedowns per 5 minutes
- 43% takedown accuracy
- Duncan also has 43% accuracy but has landed just 12 total takedowns across more minutes
- McKinney has only been taken down twice in his UFC career, holding 78% takedown defense
El Modelo likes the underdog here. Terrance McKinney gets a 73% win probability. He’s currently priced around +145, which makes this one of the stronger value spots on the card.
That said, there’s a pattern worth noting:
McKinney hasn’t won a UFC fight as an underdog since his debut in 2021. He typically cashes as a favorite, not as a dog. But the model sees an edge here regardless, and with McKinney’s finish-or-be-finished style, this could be a fun one to ride the wave.
Alexandre Pantoja (-240) vs Joshua Van (+200)
The final PPV of the year delivers with a fun clash of eras in the co-main.
On one side, you’ve got the reigning flyweight king, Alexandre Pantoja, riding an 8-fight win streak and defending his belt for what would be the fifth time. He’s methodical, vicious, and insanely experienced.
On the other side? Joshua Van, just 24 years old, stepping into his first UFC title fight after going 3-0 in 2025, including a short-notice win over Brandon Royval. He’s brash, confident, and ready to scrap.
The UFC is clearly betting on Van’s potential, but is this too much too soon?
Let’s start with a few stats:
- xR% is dead even: 65% for Pantoja, 67% for Van.
- Pantoja has 8 UFC finishes: 2 by KO, 6 by submission. Including back-to-back RNC wins in title defenses.
- Van’s fight experience? He turned pro in 2021. Pantoja’s been fighting since 2007. That’s… a massive gap.
Striking Numbers:
- Pantoja:
- 4.36 significant strikes landed per minute
- +0.49 differential
- 3.88 absorbed
- 4 knockdowns scored
- Van:
- Insane 8.86 significant strikes per minute
- +2.49 differential
- But a big red flag: 6.36 strikes absorbed per minute
- 5 knockdowns scored
Joshua Van can crack, no doubt, but absorbing that much damage at the flyweight elite level is concerning. Especially when the guy across from you thrives in the chaos.
And when it comes to grappling:
- Pantoja has a 75% control rate in clinch/ground situations
- He’s landed 40 takedowns at 48% accuracy
- 14 sub attempts (with 6 finishes)
- Van has solid defense (81% takedown defense), but hasn’t faced someone with this type of pressure over five rounds.
The model couldn’t split them apart enough.
- First run gave Pantoja a 57% edge
- Second run leaned Van at 54%
That basically tells us: it’s competitive.
From a betting perspective, Joshua Van at +200 is the side with value… but not strong enough to play. The model historically needs a stronger lean to pull the trigger on dogs in title fights. I think the experience factor weighs heavy in this one. Pantoja is walking in to handle his business as usual. Hard to see Van finding success getting into a shootout.
Verdict: We’ll be watching, but the bankroll might sit this one out.
Merab Dvalishvili (-415) vs Petr Yan (+335)
The UFC closes out the 2025 PPV season with a wild stat:
**Merab Dvalishvili is about to enter his fifth title fight in just 15 months. Fourth title defense of 2025.
Let that sink in.
The Machine is going for his 4th title defense of the year, having already beaten Umar Nurmagomedov, Sean O’Malley (twice), and Cory Sandhagen. That pace is insane and so far, he’s shown no signs of slowing down.
This week, it’s a rematch with former champion Petr Yan, who’s rebuilt a bit of momentum with three straight wins since their first meeting in 2023. But is it enough?
Let’s look back:
- In that first fight, Merab outlanded Yan 147 to 75 in significant strikes
- He also scored 11 takedowns
- All three judges had it 50-45 Merab
Stat Breakdown:
- xR%: Merab 81% vs Yan 65%
- Striking Differential:
- Merab: +1.78 (4.33 landed / 2.55 absorbed)
- Yan: +0.99 (5.12 landed / 4.14 absorbed)
- Knockdowns: Yan has 10 in his UFC career, but Merab’s output suffocates most striking threats. Along with his outstanding ability to avoid getting hit.
Where things tilt heavily:
- Takedowns:
- Merab: 117 career takedowns, 38% accuracy
- Petr Yan: 85% takedown defense… but Merab got him down 11 times last time
- Merab’s control rate in clinch/ground situations? 89%
People will point to Merab’s missed takedowns (he went 11-for-49 last time). But that’s part of his game. He overwhelms you with volume and every failed shot just sets up the next. He is doing multiple things, everywhere, all at once.
El Modelo continues to ride with The Machine:
- 89.39% win probability
- Current odds: -415 (implied 80.58%)
- So yes…technically still value at that price
That doesn’t mean we’re playing it. But it shows just how dominant Merab’s style is, even in rematches.
Safest path? Merab via decision, but even that is sitting at -250, so not much meat left on the bone.
If Yan wins, it’ll be via knockout or something wild. But based on what we’ve seen… we’re not betting on the outlier.
No reason to doubt The Machine. Model stays with Merab. Come Saturday night we’ll find a way to have the Bantamweight king on our betting slip one way or another.
That wraps it up for UFC 323.
With just one more card left before the UFC’s extended break, it’s a good time to stay selective, manage exposure, and make the most of these final spots before the six-week hiatus.
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We’ll be back next week to break down the final UFC event of the year — UFC Vegas 112, before we all take a well-earned pause from the octagon.
Model Prediction | Win Prob.%
- Merab Dvalishvili | 89.39%
- Alexandre Pantoja | 57%
- 2nd Run: Joshua Van | 54%
- Tatsuro Taira | 62.24%
- Payton Talbott | 56.97%
- Jan Blachowicz | 58.15%
- Grant Dawson | 59.45%
- Terrance McKinney | 73.73%
- Maycee Barber | 70.32%
- Fares Ziam | 68.95%
- Marvin Vettori | 62.80%
- Jalin Turner | 70.12%
- Mairon Santos | 62.11%
*in BOLD means the model says GO.
