Another week, another card and we’re down to the final stretch of the UFC calendar. This week, we make UFC Vancouver predictions, including a middleweight main event between Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen.
As always, these insights come directly from the betting model, which went 3-3-1 last week and now sits at 144-77-11 on the year (65.16%). It’s been a strong 2025 campaign, and as we close in on the final eight events, We stay focused on smart and selective betting.
You can catch more detailed discussion on this week’s episode of First Strike, dropping every Wednesday. Find us everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube. Make sure to subscribe today! Dave Ross and I are joined by James Lynch this week to talk through matchups, market movement, and where the value lies.
Now let’s dig into UFC Vancouver and what the model sees.
Cody Gibson (-180) vs Aoriqileng (+150)
I’m going to be honest: this isn’t exactly a “prospect showcase” fight. Both men come in trying to halt momentum in the wrong direction.
- Aoriqileng hasn’t won since 2023, with a no contest in 2024 (after a low blow stopped him in his tracks) and a decision loss to Raul Rosas Jr. nearly a year ago. His UFC record stands at 3-4 with 1 NC.
- Cody Gibson is coming off a submission loss in March, but before that, had a short two-fight win streak. He’s 2-3 in the UFC overall.
Not much shine here, but someone’s leaving with a win.
- Reach edge goes to Gibson, who will have a 3-inch advantage (71”).
- Both men grade poorly on the model’s efficiency scale: Gibson holds a 47% xR%, and Aoriqileng just 38%.
- On the feet, Gibson lands 3.61 sig. strikes per minute with a +0.43 differential, while Aoriqileng lands more (4.65) but with a negative differential (-0.81)—he’s absorbing 5.46 strikes per minute.
Defensively, the warning signs are there for Aoriqileng:
- 3 career knockdowns suffered
- 58% takedown defense
- Only 31% control rate in grappling exchanges
Gibson’s not dominant by any stretch, but he does hold a 70% takedown defense, and controls 55% of ground/clinch time.
The model gives a clear edge to Gibson here, rating him B+ with a moneyline price around -160. It’s not flashy, but sometimes you take the small wins and move on.
Manon Fiorot (-230) vs Jasmine Jasudavicius (+190)
Now this? This is a strong matchup.
- Manon Fiorot returns after failing to capture the flyweight title in May, snapping a 12-fight win streak.
- Opposite her, Jasmine Jasudavicius is surging. She’s won five straight in the UFC and holds an 8-2 UFC record.
From a data perspective, this is one of the best matchups on the card:
- Fiorot’s xR% sits at 76%
- Jasudavicius close behind at 71%
Neither fighter has ever been finished. I hope we get a full 15 minutes of chess here.
Stylistically:
- Fiorot fights at distance 83% of the time, preferring to strike. She lands 5.58 sig. strikes per minute with a fantastic +1.99 differential.
- Jasmine fights at distance just 49% of the time, preferring a more mixed approach. She lands 3.61 per minute with a barely positive differential (+0.05).
- Defensive numbers? Both absorb right around 3.5 per minute—very close.
Where this gets fun is in the grappling:
- Jasmine: 22 takedowns landed at 43% accuracy, with a 94% control rate when she’s in grappling positions.
- Fiorot: 9 takedowns at 29%, with 80% control rate in clinch/ground time—but she spends only 14% of her fight time in control. Most of that control rate happens up against a fence, in the clinch.
Jasmine attempts nearly 4 takedowns per 5 minutes, and that pressure could be something Fiorot hasn’t dealt with at this level. It could be a whole new world for Fiorot.
The model still scores this fight for Manon Fiorot, but it’s close enough that Jasmine could be a value play at dog odds. We found her at +210 on Monday, and by midweek, it’s dropped to +190. If she drifts back above +200, she’s likely worth a small dog ticket here.
Marlon Vera (+105) vs Aiemann Zahabi (-125)
Another interesting style clash here.
- Marlon “Chito” Vera is on a two-fight losing skid—falling to both Sean O’Malley and Deiveson Figueiredo by decision. And now return after a year layoff.
- Aiemann Zahabi has quietly put together a six-fight win streak, including a decision over Jose Aldo earlier this year.
The model is not in love with either guy:
- Vera: 41% xR%
- Zahabi: 54% xR%
But this one comes down to style and damage.
- Vera has never been finished in the UFC, and has only been knocked down once in his entire run.
- He also has 11 UFC finishes and 12 career knockdowns landed—he thrives in chaos. But that same chaos can be his downfall at times.
On the other side:
- Zahabi prefers clean distance striking (92% distance time), landing 4.42 sig. strikes per minute with a small +0.29 differential.
- Vera absorbs a massive 5.37 strikes per minute, leading to a -1.10 differential.
Defensively:
- Zahabi defends 77% of head strikes
- Vera defends just 59%
Grappling could show up here too:
- Zahabi only has 1 career takedown, but controls 65% of clinch/ground exchanges.
- Vera: 11 takedowns, 18 submission attempts, and a below average 39% accuracy.
The model grades this very close, but leans slightly to Zahabi—around a 56% win probability from the model. With Vera at +105, this might be a dog-or-pass spot. Let’s monitor the line movement and weigh in late if we see value.
Reinier de Ridder (-198) vs Brendan Allen (+164)
This fight was a late shuffle, as Brendan Allen steps in to replace Anthony Hernandez.
- Reinier de Ridder has been on fire since entering the UFC last November. He’s 4-0 with finishes over Bo Nickal, Kevin Holland, Gerald Meerschaert, and most recently a decision over Robert Whittaker.
- Brendan Allen is also a vet, with 17 UFC fights, but has struggled against top competition.
Stat check time:
- De Ridder: 74% xR%
- Allen: 58% xR%
Striking-wise:
- De Ridder is low volume (2.95 sig. strikes per minute) but efficient with a +0.51 differential.
- Allen lands 3.85 per minute but has a slightly negative differential (-0.07).
In grappling:
- De Ridder: 76% control rate
- Allen: 55%, but has attempted 14 submissions in the UFC. 7 of those turned to victories. (14 submission victories in his MMA career).
This is where some danger lies. Allen may look to engage on the mat, where de Ridder has 14 career submission wins of his own. But the Dutchman has only faced 3 takedown attempts in his UFC run and defended 67% of them.
Odds have moved: de Ridder opened -190, now -205. The model supports him, but the price is a bit rich for a straight play at this point. Parlay piece or prop angles could be the move:
- De Ridder by KO/TKO is +400 in some markets
- Could this stay standing? Maybe. Allen’s sub game may make de Ridder hesitate to grapple. We could see ourselves with a grappling stalemate.
- Otherwise, de Ridder by submission is +185 and decision is +350
No fade here. We’re backing de Ridder to win, and may circle back later in the week if a prop opportunity opens up.
Full Model Report Card Predictions | Model Imp. Win %
El Modelo has 9 fights modeled in total this week. It’s a stat stacked card but we’ll move carefully through it.
- Drew Dober | 72.98%
- Hyun Sung Park | 67.25%
- Davey Grant | 60.71%
- Matt Frevola | 56.38%
- Cody Gibson | 69.59%
- Manon Fiorot | 56.62%
- Aiemann Zahabi | 59.88%
- Mike Malott | 66.54%
- Reinier de Ridder | 64.61%
