After a rough week at UFC 321, the model sits at 150-86-12 (63.56%) as we enter the final stretch of the year. It’s a smaller-scale fight night this Saturday, headlined by Steve Garcia vs. David Onama at the UFC Apex, but the betting opportunities remain.
As always, these predictions are powered by the model I share each week on the First Strike podcast and across social media. Below, you’ll find statistical breakdowns, betting angles, and model win probabilities for key fights on the card.
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Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (+280) vs Alice Ardelean (-355)
Neither fighter has made a huge splash in the UFC, but the stats tell a surprisingly clear story here. And it doesn’t favor Conejo.
- Montserrat Conejo Ruiz is on a three-fight losing streak, all by TKO. She hasn’t fought since November 2023, marking a 2-year layoff as well.
- Alice Ardelean is 1-2 in the UFC, but her most recent outing was a decision win this past May. She enters this matchup with a 69% xR%, a strong number, especially compared to Ruiz’s shocking 22% xR%. (A bad number).
Let’s talk output:
- Ardelean lands 6.72 significant strikes per minute, but with a low differential (+1.69), meaning she also absorbs quite a bit.
- Ruiz, however, lands less than one strike per minute, just 0.79 significant strikes with a -4.16 differential. She’s absorbing nearly five per minute, and offers very little return fire.
So can Ruiz rely on her grappling?
- She has 5 takedowns in the UFC, landing them at an 83% accuracy rate. However, her control rate is only 47%, and her defense is shaky with just 33% takedown defense.
- Ardelean may not be an offensive grappler (just 3 takedowns total), but when she gets control, she holds it. 91% control rate in clinch/ground time.
- More importantly, she’s only been taken down once and owns an 88% takedown defense.
If Ruiz can’t dominate the grappling, her chances to win disappear quickly.
The model gives Alice Ardelean a 91.19% win probability. That’ll be be the strongest rating this week. With odds around -355, there’s still value to be found in method of victory props or parlays. Ruiz has shown she can be finished, and Alice has done it before. But this absolutely finding it’s away into a parlay for me this week.
Model Prediction: Alice Ardelean | 91.19% Win Probability
Ketlen Vieira (+145) vs Norma Dumont (-175)
We’ve got a fun one here between two veterans in the women’s divisions.
Ketlen Vieira is fresh off a decision win over Macy Chiasson in May, although it came with a catch…she missed weight for that bout. That was her second time missing weight in the UFC, and what’s more surprising is that happened at featherweight. She’s back at her natural bantamweight here.
Vieira’s had a pretty inconsistent UFC run overall. She’s 9-4 in the promotion, 15-4 as a pro, and just 2-2 since the start of 2023. On the other side, Norma Dumont has been more steady. She’s won five in a row, including a decision over Irene Aldana in September 2024. It’s been a bit of a layoff since then, but her UFC record stands at an impressive 8-2.
Statistically, things start to separate.
- xR% gives Dumont the edge: 70% to Vieira’s 52%. Now, that 52% for Ketlen comes against a tough schedule — she holds wins over Holly Holm and Miesha Tate, and dropped decisions to Raquel Pennington and current champ Kayla Harrison. But still, 52% is below our comfort zone.
- Striking volume and defense favor Dumont. Vieira lands 2.84 sig. strikes per minute with a negative differential (-0.87). She absorbs 3.72 per minute. Dumont’s numbers are cleaner: 3.86 landed per minute, with a +1.70 differential. She’s shown solid defense too, only absorbing 2.16 per minute and scoring a couple knockdowns along the way.
Things get tighter in the grappling.
- Both fighters have 17 takedowns in the UFC, and both maintain around a 60% control rate in clinch/ground time. Dumont has the accuracy edge (57% vs 44%), but Vieira is tough to hold down.
- Ketlen has seven submission attempts in the UFC and owns a 90% takedown defense rate. That’s elite. Dumont holds a respectable 72% defensive rate herself.
If this one stays standing, the edge goes to Dumont. If it hits the mat, it’s likely to be competitive, maybe even cancel each other out. So we turn to El Modelo.
And it agrees with the books. Norma Dumont comes in with a model win probability of 73.54%. The betting line currently sits at -175 (62.26%), which is still playable.
This is the type of value we’re looking for on a post-PPV week.
Model Prediction: Norma Dumont | 73.54% Win Probability
Steve Garcia (-135) vs David Onama (+114)
No, these aren’t the household names we’re used to seeing at the top of a UFC poster. But we’re back at the APEX, and this main event has all the ingredients for fireworks.
Steve Garcia enters on a six-fight win streak, five of those coming by knockout. He’s lived up to the nickname “Mean Machine.” Most recently, he earned a decision win over Calvin Kattar in July. His pro record now sits at 18-5.
David Onama, “The Silent Assasin”, has quietly built momentum of his own. He’s riding a four-fight win streak, now 14-2 as a pro. While the casual name recognition isn’t there yet, both men are trending in the right direction and have finishing potential.
Let’s talk nerdy.
- xR% is close, with Garcia holding a 68% mark, Onama at 62%. Garcia’s strength of schedule is slightly better, and it shows up in the damage metrics.
- Garcia lands 4.56 significant strikes per minute with a fantastic +2.60 differential. He only absorbs 1.95 per minute. That’s impressive, especially considering he spends just 38% of his fight time at distance.
- Onama’s output is a touch higher — 5.25 landed per minute — but the differential tells a different story. Just +0.51, and he’s absorbing 4.73 per minute. That’s a lot of damage coming back at him against a power puncher like Garcia.
- Speaking of, both fighters bring power. Garcia has scored seven knockdowns in nine UFC fights, while Onama has four of his own.
The concern for Garcia? Despite being hard to hit, he’s been knocked down five times in the UFC. Durability questions are fair.
On the ground, there’s not a lot to break down.
- Garcia has four takedowns at 57% accuracy.
- Onama has seven, but only at 30%.
- Onama’s takedown defense is shaky at 53%, having already been taken down 18 times in his UFC career.
This might not be a casual-friendly main event, but stylistically, it’s a good one.
The model runs the numbers and gives the edge to Garcia and it’s not particularly close.
Steve Garcia comes in with a win probability of 75.74%. The odds are only -135 right now, meaning there’s still a solid slice of value on this price.
We’ve grown accustomed to main events with steep price tags, but this is one we’re happy to get behind.
Model Prediction: Steve Garcia | 75.74% Win Probability
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Full Model Predictions | Win Probability %
- Steve Garcia | 75.74%
- Themba Gorimbo | 66.65%
- Norma Dumont | 73.54%
- Alice Ardelean | 91.19%
- Talita Alencar | 67.81%
- Cody Durden | 61.18%
