For the first time in NBA history a 10 seed made it through the play-in tournament and earned a playoff berth. Of course, it was Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat which achieved that goal. It seems that no matter what, Spoelstra is destined to earn a playoff spot, no matter what trials and tribulations his team endures throughout the regular season. Miami’s reward is a series with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is a massive favorite in this series for good reason, but would it really be that shocking if Coach Spo were to have one or two rabbits in the hat?
Cavaliers vs. Heat Series Preview
Miami enters this series with some strengths on which it can lean to make this series difficult for Cleveland. The Cavaliers allowed the eighth-fewest point per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season (112.8). In halfcourt settings it was fifth-best (95.3). The Heat ranked 21st in offensive efficiency (113.6). That looks like a mismatch on paper, but Miami can give a good defense headaches with the way it plays on offense. Specifically, how Tyler Herro plays on that end of the floor.
Herro is a mid-range scorer. He took 36% of his shot attempts from that area of the floor and he shot 52.3% on all mid-range attempts, according to Cleaning The Glass. Cleveland allowed opponents to take 31.1% of shots from mid-range. That is mostly by design. The Cavaliers play mostly drop coverage when Jarrett Allen is on the floor. Herro should have his fill of mid-range jumpers, and he can make this team pay when the Heat involve Allen in pick-and-rolls. He only played the Cavaliers twice, but he averaged 26.5 points on 48.6% shooting in those contests.
Miami will also try to flummox this offense with its defensive schemes. Spoelstra loves to play zone defense. According to NBA data, the Heat played zone defense on 14.6% of their defensive possessions this season, which was by far a league-high. Zone defense isn’t usually something teams see in the NBA, and Spoelstra’s zone usually gives opponents some trouble. But, Cleveland does have the ability to break Miami out of that zone.
The Cavaliers put their foot on the gas from beyond the arc this season. They took the fourth-highest frequency of shots from deep (42.4%) and finished second in shooting percentage (38.7%). Cleveland is more than capable of shooting over the top of Miami’s zone whenever it appears. Evan Mobley is also skilled enough to work in the teeth of the defense and find shooters around the floor.
It also seems that the Cavaliers have a massive edge in terms of scoring balance. Donovan Mitchell is an elite scorer, but he also has Darius Garland to help create looks for both himself and the rest of teammates on the floor. Herro scored nearly 30% of the Heat’s points in the two play-in games. Where else is the scoring going to come from for Miami in this series? Outside of Herro and potentially Adebayo, this team lacks shot creators.
Cleveland deserves its status as a massive favorite in this series. It has the skeleton key to unlock one of Miami’s biggest defensive strengths, and it has more depth to its offense. However, as is the case with most matchups like this, the series price is too big for most bettors to lay. Instead, it’s worth looking at the exact series results of either Cavaliers in four or five games. Bettors are getting +170 or +160 respectively, and those are the two likely outcomes.
Series Pick:Cavaliers to win series 4-1 (+160)
