Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Series Preview:
In the 2024-25 NBA Finals, we’re going to see the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers battle it out for the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which have all of our NBA Finals betting content!
Thunder vs. Pacers Series Preview
After a poor offensive showing in Game 5, Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and the Pacers got whatever they wanted in a 125-108 closeout win over the Knicks. Haliburton had 21 points and 13 assists on 9 for 17 shooting from the floor, and Siakam, who was the MVP of the Eastern Conference Finals, had 31 points on 10 for 18 shooting in 36 minutes. As a whole, Indiana shot 54.1% from the floor and 51.5% from deep. And defensively, the Pacers played the same type of in-your-face defense the Knicks played on them in Game 5. Andrew Nembhard was in Jalen Brunson’s shirt all evening, and Indiana did nothing but frustrate New York for 48 minutes. Having Rick Carlisle didn’t hurt either. He outclassed Tom Thibodeau all series.
Indiana is going to need more masterful coaching and offensive execution in order to stand a chance against Oklahoma City. The Thunder are -700 to win the NBA Finals at DraftKings Sportsbook, and it’s now difficult to see this team being denied its destiny. After all, Oklahoma City was fourth in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (118.5) and first in adjusted defensive rating (106.7) this season, according to Dunks & Threes. Indiana was ninth in adjusted offensive rating (115.4) and 16th in adjusted defensive rating (113.8). So, while we tend to hype this Pacers team up as an elite offensive team, the Thunder were better on that end of the floor while also being historically good on the other.
The half-court pressure New York applied against Indiana in Game 5 wasn’t something that the team was able to replicate in enough games in the series. But the Thunder are going to be able to do it every single night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace can all get right up on Haliburton — and Nembhard — right from the opening tip, and they all play with a physicality and edge that could get to the two-time All-Star.
Dort and Williams are also going to spend their fair share of time on Siakam. Dort’s sturdy frame and low center of gravity should allow him to push the 31-year-old off his spots, while Williams’ length and anticipation will give Siakam problems. And when those two aren’t on the Indiana wing, Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren will be. Both players might be lacking in foot speed when looking at those matchups, but they make up for it with length, timing and overall defensive instincts. Also, both players will feel good about guarding a floor-spacer like Myles Turner, but that’s especially true with Holmgren. I think it’ll primarily be Holmgren that handles the assignment, and I think we’ll see a lot of lineups with the 23-year-old as the lone big on the floor for Oklahoma City. One of the only ways the Thunder can consistently get hurt in this series is by going too big, allowing the Pacers to play at a breakneck tempo to try and run them out of the gym.
Oklahoma City is also going to like its chances of doing damage offensively in this series. Indiana has been a top-10 team defensively since December, according to Cleaning The Glass’ points allowed per 100 possessions. However, there are ways to exploit the lineups the Pacers are putting on the floor. Some of Indiana’s guards did a great job of slowing Brunson down in the Eastern Conference Finals, but Gilgeous-Alexander is a whole different beast. He does have Brunson’s ability to draw fouls, but he also has more size to score around the basket, or in the mid-range area. He’s going to be able to shoot over the top of a lot of the Pacers’ backcourt players, and he’ll also be able to blow by them.
I do, however, think that Holmgren will be the X-factor in this series. His ability to knock down triples will pull Turner away from the basket, allowing the Thunder to attack the rim with no backline defender there to contest. Also, Holmgren is great at putting the ball on the floor and attacking the basket, so he’ll be able to do a lot of the things Karl-Anthony Towns did as a downhill driver. He just won’t be a liability on the other end of the floor.
I say all of that to say that there’s very little value when looking at the Pacers on the moneyline in these NBA Finals. I was as high as anyone on this Indiana team, and I took longer than most to come around on Oklahoma City. But I saw what I needed to see from the Thunder in wins over the Nuggets and Timberwolves, and that was mainly Williams and Holmgren showing that they have what it takes to step up and be the wingmen Gilgeous-Alexander needs. I also think this is a brutal matchup for Indiana stylistically.
Despite all of that, I do think that Over 5.5 games is worth a look at +115. Oklahoma City might have answered a lot of questions, but a poor shooting game on the road isn’t out of the question for a young team. We could also get a blistering-hot shooting night from Indiana in one of these games, and Carlisle is fully capable of scheming up a game plan that allows the Pacers to steal one of the earlier ones. I love the way Mark Daigneault coaches, but he has had some questionable moments in these playoffs. Meanwhile, Carlisle has been here before.
It just feels like anybody that missed out on backing Oklahoma City is out of opportunities now. You have to deal with a -275 price if you want to take the Thunder to win in six or fewer games. And -130 for the -2.5 games, or -135 for Under 5.5 games, doesn’t feel worth the risk. Indiana is a good basketball team, despite what all the TV ratings fanatics have to say. You don’t want to be sitting there hoping the Pacers don’t make this acceptable.
Series Pick: Over 5.5 Games (+115)
