Thunder vs. Timberwolves Western Conference Finals Series Preview:
In the 2024-25 NBA Playoffs, we’re going to see the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves battle for a spot in the NBA Finals. These two splits wins in their four games during the regular season, so it’ll be interesting to see them scrap in the Western Conference Finals. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Series Preview
The Thunder had a lot of trouble with the Nuggets in the second round, as Denver took Oklahoma City to seven games. And honestly, the Thunder weren’t all that impressive against the Grizzlies either. If you zoom out, the postseason advanced stats will tell a different story. Of the 16 teams in the NBA Playoffs, Cleaning The Glass has the Thunder first in Efficiency Differential (+12.9), first in points allowed per 100 possessions (104.1) and third in points per 100 possessions (117.0). However, it’s hard not to feel like three games — a 131-80 win over Memphis, a 149-106 win over Denver and a 125-93 win over Denver — skewed those numbers in a big way. The eye test showed that the Grizzlies had real shots at winning Games 3 and 4 in the first series, and they played the last 1.5 games of that series without Ja Morant. And the Nuggets could have easily won the second-round series. Game 7 ended in a blowout, but it was a back-and-forth series throughout.
Things were a lot smoother for the Timberwolves. Minnesota whooped Los Angeles in a straightforward five-game series in the first round, and the team then beat Golden State in five games in the next round. Of course, it has to be noted that Stephen Curry missed Games 2 through 5, and the Warriors won the only game in which he was healthy. But all in all, Minnesota did what it needed to do with very few problems. And sifting through the Cleaning The Glass numbers shows that the Timberwolves continue to look like an elite basketball team. In the playoffs, they’re fourth in Efficiency Differential (+7.5), second in points allowed per 100 possessions (108.2) and seventh in points per 100 possessions (115.6). Sure, that last one is a little disappointing. But Golden State is an elite defensive team, and the team had no choice but to defend like there was no tomorrow with Curry missing to lift the offense.
My strong feeling is that this Thunder team is nothing like the one we saw in the regular season, and I continue to think the Timberwolves are right there when compared to some of the league’s top-tier squads. I have futures on Minnesota to win the Western Conference at 14-1 and 20-1, so this is not a series I’m personally looking to get in on. I’m actually looking to hedge this. But the price is right for the Timberwolves to win two games at -160.
From December 1st to the end of the regular season, the Timberwolves were seventh in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (117.9) and fifth in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.3). On top of that, they’re 30-6 in the last 36 games that Julius Randle has played, which is good for a 68-win pace. Perhaps those numbers can be misleading, depending on how you look at them. But they’re not as misleading as the No. 6 next to Minnesota when looking at the Western Conference standings. This was a top-three team in the conference this year, and they’re going to like their chances of beating the Thunder. And as previously mentioned, Minnesota did win two games against Oklahoma City during the year, and Randle wasn’t there in the wins.
One thing that can prevent the Timberwolves from competing in this series is turnovers. Minnesota is 13th in the NBA Playoffs in turnover rate (15.8%), and Anthony Edwards can be a mistake-prone player. That’s going to need to be cleaned up a little here, as Oklahoma City is first in the NBA Playoffs in opponent turnover rate (17.6%).
The flip side of that is that there’s a lot Minnesota can do to disrupt Oklahoma City. One of those is that the Timberwolves can hit the offensive glass and really set the tone on the boards. Minnesota is third in the postseason in offensive rebound rate (33.7%) while Oklahoma City is 13th in opponent offensive rebound rate (30.8%). That said, Rudy Gobert and Randle can push the Thunder around a bit, creating second chances for themselves and the guards.
Another thing that stands out is that the Timberwolves were third in opponent 3-point makes per game (12.7) during the regular season, and we just saw that this Thunder team can’t be trusted to consistently knock down 3s. Well, if Minnesota shuts Oklahoma City’s water off from behind the 3-point line, there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Speaking of Gilgeous-Alexander, I’m interested in seeing how he looks in the mid-range area this series. We know the MVP frontrunner is the master of hitting contested mid-range pull-ups, but the Wolves are going to be able to throw some length on him. And he’s also going to be dealing with Gobert, one of the league’s all-time great drop defenders, getting a late contest on all of his jumpers. If that disrupts him, Jalen Williams better be prepared to play better than he did against the Nuggets. He was borderline invisible in that series.
It just shouldn’t surprise anyone if Edwards holds his won with Gilgeous-Alexander in the battle of the top dogs in this series, even with the Thunder having a ton of options to throw at him defensively. And you know what? Randle is easily the most reliable No. 2 when looking at these rosters. The 30-year-old is having a legendary postseason run, averaging 23.9 points, 5.9 assists and 5.9 rebounds per game, and he’s doing so on 50.9% shooting from the floor and 34.5% shooting from 3. This has been the best postseason of his career, and he has been the perfect running mate for Edwards. Teams used to be able to blitz the Wolves guard, knowing that nobody else on this Minnesota team was going to be able to create offensive consistently. Not anymore. Randle is playing bully-ball on smaller forwards, either putting his head down and going to the rim or using his big body to create space and hit mid-range shots. He’s also hitting a good amount of his triples.
The Timberwolves also happen to be the better 3-point shooting team. We might see a few ugly games in this series, so perhaps shot making won’t be the story of this best-of-seven set. But Minnesota’s role players can be counted on to hit open 3s, whether that’s at home or on the road. Oklahoma City’s can’t.
The Thunder also happen to have a coach in Chris Finch that has now proven he’s excellent when it comes to X’s and O’s, motivation and adjustments. Two years in a row this Minnesota team has been there late in May. That can’t be discounted when looking to the other sideline and seeing Mark Daigneault, who is a very bright mind but has a lot to prove when it comes to his playoff acumen.
Overall, this is a series that Oklahoma City is deservedly favored to win. But people are about to see that Minnesota has been slept on for way too long, and this could very well go six or seven games. The Timberwolves also have what it takes to win.
Series Pick: Timberwolves +2.5 Games (-160 – 1.5 units)
