In the opening round of the 2024-25 NBA Playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies clash in the loaded Western Conference. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Series Preview
The Grizzlies aren’t your average No. 8 seed. Before the All-Star break, Memphis had the NBA’s fifth-best record and fourth-best net rating. Things then flew off the handle a little bit, with the Grizzlies defense turning into a mess. Then, with a few weeks left in the year, Memphis shocked the basketball world with the decision to fire Taylor Jenkins. Now, the Grizzlies are a little hard to trust heading into the postseason. But any team with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., along with a relatively deep bench, will be a tough team to sweep. So, even at juiced odds, I’m taking the Over on the series’ 4.5-game total.
Memphis looked great in the Play-In Tournament. The Grizzlies fought extremely hard in a 121-116 road loss to the Warriors in the 7 vs. 8 showdown, and that was a game they really could have won. While there were some questionable calls that went Memphis’ way in the final couple of minutes, it felt like the Warriors had the whistle the rest of the game. After all, Jimmy Butler nearly shot as many free throws (18) as the entire Grizzlies team did (23). Then, after losing to Golden State, we watched Memphis obliterate Dallas at FedExForum. All in all, the Grizzlies looked exactly how they were supposed to look in both games, and they should now be feeling pretty good heading into this series.
Now, let’s start with the bad. Oklahoma City went 4-0 against Memphis during the regular season, and the smallest margin of victory in those games was 13. The Thunder have absolutely owned the Grizzlies. Also, this historically-good Oklahoma City team had a week to rest before Game 1, and Memphis will have only one day of rest to get prepped for Sunday’s series opener. That’s not ideal with Ja Morant having suffered a serious ankle sprain in the first Play-In game, requiring nonstop treatment just to try and numb the pain. On top of that, the Thunder are the league’s best defense when it comes to points allowed per 100 possessions (107.4) in transition. That could neutralize a big strength for the Grizzlies, who are sixth in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (118.3) in transition.
The argument for Memphis really comes down to the team’s ability to score. I don’t care how good the Thunder are defensively, it’s going to be hard to stop the Grizzlies four games in a row. Memphis had an offensive rating of 119.2 in two Play-In games, and the team also looked great on that end of the floor to end the regular season. The Grizzlies also went to more pick-and-roll looks with Morant than they did under Jenkins, so this isn’t exactly the same Memphis offense that Oklahoma City saw during the year. There was also a lot more Zach Edey, meaning the Grizzlies are playing bigger and have Jaren Jackson Jr. looking like a dangerous player at the four — on both ends of the floor.
Oklahoma City might be a well-coached team, with players that have the right mentality and want to win every single night, but it’s hard to keep up the intensity for four consecutive games. And that’s especially true with Memphis being a difficult place to play. I’d be surprised if we don’t see at least one huge performance from the Grizzlies at home, and I also expect a game or two in which Oklahoma City struggles offensively. This Thunder team was fourth in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (118.5) during the regular season, but there are still some question marks surrounding the group. We know Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to show up throughout the NBA Playoffs, but what about Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren? There were some bad moments for both in last year’s playoffs.
It’s also just hard not to think that Memphis stacks up quite well against Oklahoma City when talking about talent on the roster, which isn’t something that can be said about other squads. And that, combined with some of the fight we’ve seen over the last week, is enough for me to take the Grizzlies to win a game. I’m also putting a little something on Memphis to win two.
Series Best Bet: Grizzlies +3.5 Games (-180) & Grizzlies +2.5 Games (+240 – 0.5 units)
