In the opening round of the 2024-25 NBA Playoffs, the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves clash in the loaded Western Conference. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Series Preview
I have some futures on the Timberwolves to win the Western Conference, so I’m not running to the window to add anything on Minnesota. However, I will say that there’s very little value in backing Los Angeles in this series. BetMGM’s John Ewing tweeted that the Lakers opened at -160 to win this series, but they quickly moved up to -190 with 99% of the money coming in on Los Angeles. So, that’s a sportsbook saying that there’s an implied probability of 61.5% the Lakers will win, but the public love for the Purple and Gold bumped that up to 65.5%. DraftKings Sportsbook also has lopsided action for this one, with nearly 80% of bettors backing the Lakers.
Just the early shift in pricing makes Minnesota a solid play based on nothing but numbers. However, I genuinely view this as a 50-50 series, so getting a plus-money payout on the Timberwolves was always going to be enticing to me. And with +166 odds out there, it’s a no-brainer to play Minnesota for a least a little something.
When looking at the on-court matchups in this series, a lot of people are going to point out that Luka Doncic absolutely cooked the Timberwolves in last year’s playoffs. And there’s no denying he did. Over five games, Doncic averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game, and he also shot 47.3% from the floor and 43.4% from 3 (on 10.6 attempts per game). He wasn’t just putting up big numbers, but he was doing it efficiently. And honestly, Minnesota tried everything in that series. They threw every defender they had at Doncic, but it didn’t work. However, a lot of that had to do with the Mavericks having a perfect supporting cast around the Slovenian. That includes some awesome pick-and-roll partners in Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. Those guys killed the Timberwolves with their ability to finish and make quick decisions with the basketball, as well as their ability to block shots and dominate the glass. Jaxson Hayes is a great athlete at the center position, but he doesn’t have as much skill or force as the Dallas bigs had. He also doesn’t have a high basketball IQ.
The center position will be interesting to watch in this series. If Los Angeles can’t trust its big men, there won’t be as many good screens set for Doncic. That could help Jaden McDaniels defend him. I know that was a problematic one-on-one matchup last year, but McDaniels should be able to do a better job of guarding Doncic without having to worry about as many picks. Also, for as much as people like to hate on Rudy Gobert, he is capable of dominating games when the opposing team doesn’t have a quality center. And even if that’s not the case in this series, Naz Reid should have a ton of success in his minutes. And Julius Randle could even have some big moments as a small-ball five.
I also don’t see the Lakers doing as good of a job defending Anthony Edwards as the Mavericks did. Dallas had Derrick Jones Jr., a lengthy wing with all-world athleticism, to tire Edwards out in last year’s postseason. Los Angeles has nothing like that. Dorian Finney-Smith is the closest thing the Lakers have in the rotation, but I’m not sure the 31-year-old has the foot speed required to lock Edwards up over the course of a seven-game series.
I have also said all year that Minnesota is better equipped to score in the playoffs this year. For as good as Karl-Anthony Towns can be, he wasn’t reliable offensively for the Timberwolves. Sure, he’s an unbelievable shooter and can score when driving to the rim. But more often than not, Towns was passive in the playoffs. And that’s when the talented big man wasn’t getting himself in foul trouble. In fact, in last year’s series against Dallas, Towns shot 37.9% from the floor and 24.2% from 3. Randle can do better than that, and he can do a lot more to take pressure off Edwards. There will be some bad moments with Randle defensively, but he’s an awesome passer that can play some bully-ball against this Lakers defense. That should make it hard on Los Angeles to force the ball out of Edwards’ hands. The presence of Donte DiVincenzo should also do that. Minnesota didn’t have a 3-and-D two-guard like DiVincenzo last year. If the Lakers leave him open, he’ll make them pay.
Speaking of DiVincenzo, it’s hard not to like him and Nickeil Alexander-Walker as defensive options for Austin Reaves, who has been tremendous all year long. LeBron James and Doncic will be the talk of this series for Los Angeles, and that’s understandable given their pedigrees. But Reaves must be accounted for and the Timberwolves will likely feel good about who they have for him.
It’s also worth mentioning that Minnesota has simply been a better basketball team than Los Angeles since the Doncic trade. The Slovenian played his first game with the Lakers on February 10th. Since then, Los Angeles is 19-13 with an Efficiency Differential of +2.0, according to Cleaning The Glass. In that same span, Minnesota is 19-10 with an Efficiency Differential of +6.6. The Timberwolves have also been a top-10 team in both points per 100 possessions (119.4) and points allowed per 100 possessions (112.7) since that date.
Overall, I understand how important it is to have the best player in a series, and a strong argument can be made that Doncic is that. But Edwards is pretty damn good himself. And unlike last year’s Mavericks series, he has a better supporting cast than Doncic. Minnesota is also the tougher defensive team, as well as the deeper team. Downplaying depth is a thing you’ll see a lot of in the coming days, but the Timberwolves rotation isn’t like others. A lot of deep teams think they go 8-9 players deep, but usually 2-3 of those rotation guys aren’t playable in the postseason. That’s not the case with Minnesota. Alexander-Walker, DiVincenzo and Reid can play with anyone. And Los Angeles is actually a team with serious question marks outside of its top four or five players.
Series Pick: Timberwolves To Win (+166)
