The first conference finals series is set. New York is in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in 25 years. Ironically enough, the Knickerbockers were eliminated by the Indiana Pacers in that series. Indiana – the team which eliminated New York last season in the conference semifinals – is back on this stage for the second straight season.
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Knicks vs. Pacers Series Preview
There are many statistics which can decide how this series plays out, but it is poetic that the one that could have the most impact is pace.
These two teams are on opposite sides of the spectrum when it comes to how many possessions they prefer to play with. In the regular season Indiana was seventh in pace at 100.76 possessions per game. New York was 26th at 97.64 possessions per game. In the postseason the Pacers have played at the third quickest pace (99.27) and the Knicks have been even slower than they were in the regular season (95.31).
Indiana is not lost when a game bogs down – it owns the best halfcourt offensive rating among playoff teams at 108.5 points per 100 plays – but it prefers to play at a faster tempo without a doubt. In a series in which a berth in the Finals is on the line, it is likely the pace favors New York’s, which is an advantage for the home team.
The Pacers could also be living on borrowed time, for lack of a better term. Indiana’s offense has been tremendous. It is second in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (119.5) in the postseason. Not only does it have the highest halfcourt offensive rating in these playoffs, but it has the best offensive rating in transition off live rebounds (139.2). But, there are plenty of metrics that point to impending regression for the Pacers.
Indiana owns the best effective field goal percentage in non-garbage time in the playoff field by a mile (59.1%). Its overall effective field goal percentage (58.3%) through the first two rounds would be the highest in NBA history, according to NBA.com. Cleaning The Glass’ location effective field goal percentage is a metric which tells us what a team would shoot if it shot league average from location of its shot attempts. That number is much lower for the Pacers at 53.3%. According to Second Spectrum shot quality data, Indiana is just seventh in shot quality, but it has outperformed the quality of looks more than any other team in the postseason.
Just look at some of the playoff performances of the Pacers’ individual players.
Andrew Nembhard has gone from averaging 10 points, 3.3 rebounds and 5 assists per game on 45.8% shooting from the floor and 29.1% from deep to 14.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 6 assists on 50.5% shooting overall and 50% on 3-point attempts.
Aaron Nesmith has improved his shooting from deep dramatically. In the regular season he shot 43.1% on 4.3 3-point attempts per game. In the playoffs he has hit 48.2% of 5.6 attempts from deep per contest.
Pascal Siakam has greatly improved his 3-point jumper the last two years of his career. Even still, he has gone from 38.9% on 4.2 attempts per game in the regular season to 44.1% on 3.4 3-pointers per contest.
These are all statistical jumps which one would assume do not continue over the course of the postseason, however long it lasts. There is certainly a chance the hot shooting lasts in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it is not worth counting on.
The improbability of this run for Indiana also extends to the wins which it has earned on its run to the conference finals. Coming into this postseason teams were 1-1,640 when down by 7+ points with less than a minute left in the fourth quarter or overtime. As of 10 days ago that record was 3-1,640 with the Pacers accounting for both of those victories.
It might not be as obvious, so I will state it plainly: I believe the New York Knicks will win this series. I do not think Indiana can continue its seemingly unsustainable offensive run. I also believe the Pacers will have trouble defending Karl-Anthony Towns like they did in the regular season when he averaged 30.3 points, 12 rebounds and 2.3 steals and blocks on 56.6% shooting.
Indiana has also been a very average rebounding team in this postseason. It last among all teams in offensive rebounding rate (19.9%). It is also last in points per 100 putback plays (92.1). That is not likely to improve against New York. Meanwhile, the Knicks have grabbed 30.8% of their missed shot attempts and are seventh among playoff teams in the same category (110.7).
Despite the edges I believe the Knicks to have, I do believe this is going to be a long series. I do also believe the strengths that the Pacers boast – namely bench scoring, a category in which they have a very big edge – will help extend this series out. This series is also priced right where I expected it to be.
So, there are two markets in which I would look to make a wager: total games and a player prop for the series.
Not many books have an over/under set for the series when it comes to total games. DraftKings has 5.5 with the over priced at -165 while MGM has 5.5 with the over at -200. I believe the price should be closer to -180 on 5.5 games, so a play on the DraftKings price would be worth a bet in my eyes.
For the player prop, I’m shopping around for Josh Hart to lead the series in rebounds. As previously mentioned, the Pacers have not been a good rebounding team. In the regular season series the Knicks grabbed 53.6% of all rebounds. Hart himself had 30 rebounds in three games. Towns ended up with 36 in the series. He is the rightful favorite to lead the series in rebounds, but I think he is being priced too high at -900 or better.
Towns has been known to deal with foul trouble. If there is a game or two in which he must sit for stretches that increases the rebounding opportunities for Hart. The Knicks guard is also an elite rebounder at his position. He ranked in 100th percentile at his position in defensive rebounding rate (20%) and the 91st percentile in offensive rebounding rate (6%). If I can get +500 or better on Hart to lead the series in rebounds I will take a piece of it.
Series Pick: Knicks in 7
Best Bets: OVER 5.5 Games (-165) | Josh Hart to lead series in rebounds (+500)