The 2024 NBA Draft features a class that is lacking in star power at the top. The Atlanta Hawks won the lottery and will be selecting first overall, but there are quite a few players that are under consideration in that spot. That’s not very common when it comes to basketball. We usually have a good idea of who will be going first, and casual NBA fans generally know a lot of the top prospects through the college game or social media hype. Well, one player that everybody knows is Bronny James, son of Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James. And while Bronny isn’t even considered a lottery pick, he has been the subject of a lot of the pre-draft conversations over the last couple of weeks. In fact, DraftKings Sportsbook has an Over/Under draft position up for Bronny, despite the fact that he’s not one of the top prospects in the class. With that in mind, Bronny continues to be discussed. And you can keep reading for our dive into the topic, as I have a pick on Bronny’s draft position.
(Written on June 3rd when Bronny’s O/U was 39.5 & updated on June 25th with his O/U at 49.5)
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Last season, Bronny averaged 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game for the USC Trojans. He also shot just 36.6% from the field and 26.7% from 3. It was a trying year for the highly-touted freshman, and the fact that he was coming off the bench for a USC team that went 15-18 only made matters worse. Bronny’s lousy numbers and inability to hold down a starting spot for a bad Pac-12 team have people questioning him heading into the draft. A lot of media personalities and casual fans will simply say that he stinks and doesn’t deserve any attention. But doing that ignores some really important context.
When talking about Bronny’s struggles in his freshman year, people don’t seem to factor in that he went into cardiac arrest in late July. Bronny was hospitalized for three days and later learned that he has a congenital heart defect. Doctors ultimately cleared Bronny to return to action, but not before the 6-foot-1 guard underwent some serious testing. And overall, he had to take quite a bit of time off to get himself healthy. Bronny got off to a late start and wasn’t able to work on his game like he would in a normal summer. And Andy Enfield, the former USC head coach that is now at SMU, eased Bronny into action, giving him 20 or fewer minutes in the first eight games of his college career.
If Bronny’s late start to the year wasn’t enough, he also wasn’t a great fit on the Trojans. Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis, USC’s starting guards, are both shoot-first players. So, there really wasn’t anybody out there that was directing traffic and getting everybody their touches. And while you might say Bronny was responsible for that, he’s more of a connective piece than a pure a point guard. On top of that, USC wasn’t a great 3-point shooting team last year. The Trojans were 84th in the nation in 3PT% and just 198th in 3-point rate. Why is that important? USC’s floor spacing simply wasn’t there, so Bronny was not getting great looks.
All in all, last season was a funky one for Bronny, but NBA teams are likely going to flush it and focus on his skill set. Offensively, Bronny has the potential to be a knockdown shooter, despite what his 3-point percentage at USC suggests. He has clean mechanics and shot the 3 well at every level before college. Bronny is also a bright player when it comes to moving the ball. Sure, he might not be able to run an offense by himself, but he can be a good secondary or tertiary playmaker. Defensively, Bronny is a good point-of-attack defender, capable of hounding opposing lead guards. I know NBA teams can occasionally pick on shorter guards, but Bronny’s 6-foot-7 wingspan should prevent that from happening. That makes him a good fit for a team that has a big lead ball handler. All of that means that Bronny has the potential to be a good role player, assuming the shot pans out. And that shouldn’t be surprising to anybody, as Bronny was the 20th-ranked player in the 2023 ESPN 100. So, while people want to treat him like some sort of charity case, he was actually ranked higher than Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard, a potential top-five pick, heading into the college season.
Bronny also impressed some people at the NBA Draft Combine. Bronny shot 19 for 25 in the 3-point shooting drill, showcasing why so many people believe in his jump shot. He also played very well in his second scrimmage, scoring a team-high 13 points in 23 minutes and making a bunch of winning plays.
Quite frankly, NBA teams look at Bronny a lot differently than casual fans do. And so do NBA players. Draymond Green, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce have all come out and said that they think Bronny will be a good pro.
All of that is why I ultimately like Bronny to be selected before the 50th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. And I don’t think it can be dismissed that Shams Charania reported that the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers are interested in Bronny. His agent, Rich Paul, confirmed that the Suns are interested. Well, the Suns are picking 22nd in the draft. They probably won’t take him there. But there has been some talk about Phoenix trading 22 to the Utah Jazz for 29 and 32. Perhaps the team would use the second of those two picks on Bronny. In fact, all of the teams the Suns are interested in trading with have picks in the 30s. When I originally wrote this up, I played the Under on 39.5. I obviously wish I waited a bit, as this is a much better number. But I still think it’s possible he’s taken in the 30s.
The fact that the Under 49.5 draft position is available at plus-money odds is the cherry on top. Of course, it’s only natural that people assume Bronny will be picked by the Lakers with the 55th overall selection. But picks in the 40s are generally crapshoots. So, why not get LeBron’s son in the building and hope there’s truth to the legend wanting to play with him — especially considering Bronny has plenty of game. Paul might have squashed that rumor publicly, but I don’t buy it. If Bronny lands in a big market, I think LeBron would be interested in joining him.
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