The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Atlanta Hawks. Keep reading to see how we think the Hawks will do compared to their regular season win total of 46.5.
Make sure you download the 2025-26 NBA Betting Guide for full access to our entire season preview!
Offense
The Hawks finished 18th in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (113.7) last season, while Cleaning The Glass had them 14th in points per 100 possessions (115.2). But a leap could be on the horizon.
Even without factoring in offseason additions, better health alone might have pushed Atlanta toward top-10 production last year. When Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu shared the floor, the Hawks scored 126.1 points per 100 possessions.
Johnson is back healthy after labrum surgery in January, and he’s looking to build on a 2024-25 campaign in which he averaged 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. He’s a dynamic slasher, a good playmaker, and he’s making strides with his jumper. If he continues to progress, everything points up for Quin Snyder’s group.
The Hawks are more heliocentric than some of Snyder’s Jazz teams, but that’s the nature of having Young. The eighth-year pro put up 24.2 points and 11.6 assists last year, and the Hawks need to lean on his pick-and-roll creation. But, as The Ringer’s Zach Lowe likes to highlight, Young set more screens in 2024-25 than in his first six seasons combined. Snyder has convinced him to buy into being useful off the ball — a necessity, with Daniels and Johnson needing touches. The result: a more equal-opportunity offense with multiple ball-handlers. That shift helped Atlanta play at the league’s third-fastest pace (103.4), finish fifth in assist rate (68.2%), and establish tempo as a defining trait — something that should carry into 2025-26.
The front office also delivered one of the offseason’s best hauls, adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kennard.
Alexander-Walker brings secondary ball-handling and 38.1% three-point shooting. He’ll fit well next to Young and organize some second-unit groups.
Porzingis gives Young a true pick-and-pop partner. Okongwu is an effective finisher, but Porzingis is a different kind of weapon, averaging 19.5 points while shooting 41.2% from deep last year. He has cleared 37.5% from three in five of the last seven seasons, and his gravity should open driving lanes for everyone else. Encouragingly, he looked healthy with Latvia at EuroBasket, showing flashes of off-the-dribble creation and no signs of the illness that derailed his 2024-25 season.
Kennard is one of the NBA’s purest shooters, hitting at least 39.4% from three every year of his career. He adds movement shooting and can also steady an offense when needed.
Put it all together, and Snyder has a roster full of quick decision-makers, spacing, and versatility. With Young and Johnson at the center and more weapons around them, including an improved 2024 No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, this version of Atlanta could look more like Snyder’s top-five Jazz offenses — with more threes, more pace, and endless lineup options.
Defense
The defensive outlook is trickier. Building a top-10 defense around Young is tough, but top-15 metrics are possible if the roster stays healthy.
Daniels led the NBA in swipes last season (3.0 steals per game). At 6-foot-7, he’s one of the league’s better on-ball defenders and gives Atlanta a strong point-of-attack option. Johnson, despite some lapses, uses his length and athleticism to disrupt, and Risacher adds another long, active body. Together, those three can cause real problems.
Alexander-Walker should also be pivotal. He’s a quality perimeter defender, and pairing him with Porzingis opens up schematic flexibility. Snyder hasn’t had a rim protector like Porzingis in years, which limited his ability to replicate the Rudy Gobert-anchored drop scheme he thrived with in Utah. With Porzingis at the back line and Alexander-Walker and Daniels funnelling guards his way, that coverage could be viable in doses. Snyder won’t live in drop every night, but he has the option.
The priority must be defending the arc. Atlanta gave up 37.7% shooting from three last year — third-worst in the league. It’s hard to win consistently when opponents are comfortable taking the game’s most valuable shot.
Outlook
There’s plenty to like here. Young and Johnson are All-Star caliber talents, and the front office has surrounded them with shooting, defense, and depth. Add in Snyder’s tactical chops, and Atlanta looks like a legitimate player in what’s shaping up to be a wide-open Eastern Conference.
The question is timing. How fast can it all click? It needs to happen quickly, because this is likely Young’s last chance to prove he can be the engine of a winning team. Of course, what “winning” means to ownership is anyone’s guess.
Either way, the roster is strong enough to justify an Over on the season win total and the team merits a look in the big-picture futures market. Hopefully, some subscribers grabbed the Hawks at 90-1 to win the conference, which was posted to VSiN.com in June.
Prediction: Over 46.5 Wins
