The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Charlotte Hornets. Keep reading to see how we think the Hornets will do compared to their regular season win total of 25.5.
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Offense
Charles Lee won titles as an assistant with the Bucks and Celtics, and that experience shapes how he approaches the game. A disciple of Mike Budenholzer and Joe Mazzulla, Lee values quick decision-making, unselfish play, and a math-forward shot diet — the more threes the better.
Last season, Charlotte did a solid job getting attempts up, ranking 11th in the NBA in three-point attempts per game (38.3). The problem: the Hornets shot just 33.9% from deep, 28th in the league. They simply didn’t have the shooters Lee’s system demands, and LaMelo Ball missing 35 games didn’t help.
Ball, who averaged 25.2 points and 7.4 assists, is a legitimate offensive engine. When he’s unavailable, the entire offense sputters. Unfortunately, availability has been the story — he has played fewer than 52 games in four of his five seasons.
If Ball can’t stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine Charlotte improving much from the 29th-ranked adjusted offensive rating (106.9) they posted last year.
According to Cleaning The Glass, Charlotte scored just 107.4 points per 100 possessions in 2024-25. With Ball on the floor, though, that number rose to 114.3. And in lineups featuring Ball and Brandon Miller together, it jumped to 116.1. Miller, a smooth three-level scorer, averaged 21.0 points but also missed 55 games.
That duo simply needs better injury luck. When they’re on the floor, they bend defenses, create shots, and make life easier for everyone else.
If Ball and Miller stay healthy, Charlotte should see natural improvement in both three-point percentage and overall efficiency. The front office also added one of the draft’s best shooters in Duke’s Kon Knueppel, who averaged 14.4 points and shot 40.5% from deep in his lone season in Durham. Knueppel is deadly off the catch, lethal off movement, and doesn’t need heavy usage to make an impact. He’s also a sharp passer with an underrated in-between game.
There’s firepower off the bench, too. Tre Mann looked like one of the league’s top reserves last year and earned a three-year, $24 million extension. He’s electric off the dribble. Charlotte also added Collin Sexton and Spencer Dinwiddie — proven scorers, with Sexton in particular bringing a fierce competitiveness. Together, that trio cushions the blow if Ball misses time.
The frontcourt remains the big question. Miles Bridges is good for 16 points a night, and Grant Williams is a reliable floor-spacer and ball-mover. But Tidjane Salaun, the team’s 2024 first-rounder, is still raw. And the center depth chart should come with a warning, as it could induce vomiting.
Moussa Diabate will likely start. He plays hard and attacks the offensive glass but brings little offensive polish. Mason Plumlee, a former Hornet, is a solid locker-room presence but he’s no longer good enough athletically to warrant big minutes. The team is hopeful about Ryan Kalkbrenner, drafted 34th in 2025, but he projects as a defensive contributor before anything else.
It’s tough to imagine a team in worse shape at a key position, and the rest of the roster isn’t good enough to compensate. Expect Charlotte to keep building better habits under Lee, but offensively, a top-20 finish seems like the ceiling.
Defense
The Hornets held their own against above-the-break threes last year, but they were torched in the corners. Per Cleaning The Glass, opponents shot 43.0% on corner threes against them — worst in the NBA. That’s a backbreaker, given the value of those shots. Opponents also connected well from mid-range, which Lee may tolerate schematically, but the bigger concern is that teams scored efficiently from virtually everywhere.
Diabate offers some defensive value, so the center position looks a little sturdier on this end — especially with Kalkbrenner projecting as an immediate-impact rim protector in whatever minutes he earns. Beyond them, though, Charlotte lacks reliable stoppers.
Miller has the tools and desire to become a strong wing defender, but consistency remains an issue. Meanwhile, the backcourt is a problem. Ball, Sexton, Mann, and Dinwiddie are all vulnerable at the point of attack. On the wing, Bridges and Williams don’t inspire more confidence.
Ironically, Knueppel — an average athlete — may end up being one of Charlotte’s more dependable defenders. At the very least, he competes and consistently positions himself well.
Lee coaxed this group into finishing 24th in adjusted defensive rating (115.8) last year, which felt like overachieving. Realistically, it’s hard to project Charlotte as anything better than a top-20 defense this season.
Outlook
Charlotte projects as a bottom-10 team on both ends again, but that doesn’t automatically mean an Under on their win total. The Nets, for example, finished 28th in offense (108.4) and 22nd in defense (115.3) last season and still won 26 games. Charlotte has more talent.
If Ball and Miller stay on the court, 30 wins is within reach.
Ultimately, the Over is appealing because of Ball’s track record. Just four years ago, he led the Hornets to 43 wins and a Play-In berth. Now, with Miller alongside him and Knueppel fitting neatly between them, there’s reason for optimism.
The Hornets should be competitive on a nightly basis, but betting on them means betting on health — and that’s been a dangerous gamble.
Prediction: Over 25.5 Wins
