The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Keep reading to see how we think the Cavaliers will do compared to their regular season win total of 56.5.
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Offense
The Cavaliers were the best offensive team in basketball last year, finishing with a league-best adjusted offensive rating of 120.7 — just shy of Boston’s historically excellent 122.0 in 2023-24.
Kenny Atkinson did exactly what he was hired to do. Cleveland wasn’t bad under J.B. Bickerstaff, who guided them to a 48-34 record in his final season. But the Cavs ranked only 18th in adjusted offensive rating (114.6), and the front office wanted more. Atkinson, who patiently waited for the perfect head coaching opportunity, believed he had the blueprint.
Atkinson didn’t get any major roster changes, but that wasn’t a problem. He preached faster pace, quicker decisions, constant off-ball movement, and less dependence on Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell still thrived, averaging 24.0 points and 5.0 assists while finishing ninth in Offensive EPM (+3.9). But what made Cleveland elite was the rest of the roster. Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen all posted career-best OEPM numbers, with Garland and Mobley joining Mitchell at the All-Star Game. Mobley, in particular, was a revelation.
Unlocking Mobley was Atkinson’s top priority. He averaged 18.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, but more importantly, he expanded his shooting. After attempting just 1.2 threes per game at 37.3% in 2023-24, he upped that to 3.2 attempts at 37.0%. By stretching defenses, Mobley not only became a bigger scoring threat but also created space for cutters and drivers.
The depth helped, too. Ty Jerome, De’Andre Hunter, Max Strus, Sam Merrill, Isaac Okoro, Craig Porter Jr., and Dean Wade all contributed, with Jerome standing out in a Sixth Man of the Year-caliber season (12.5 PPG, 3.4 APG, 51.6/43.9/87.2 shooting splits).
This year, the Cavs expect more of the same all around. Regression is possible as teams adjust, which happened in the second half of the year. But this still profiles as a top-five offense.
Losing Jerome to Memphis was one of the few blows to this roster over the summer. But Cleveland dealt Okoro for Lonzo Ball, who could be an upgrade as the first guard off the bench if he can stay healthy. Ball isn’t quite as good as Jerome from three, but he has shot at least 37.5% from deep in three of his last four seasons. He’s also a much better playmaker.
Health is the main concern here. Garland needed surgery for a toe injury that derailed the end of his season, and Strus — who hit 38.6% from deep — will miss a few months with a broken foot. Others will need to step up, and Jaylon Tyson could be the one. The 2024 first-rounder was so good at the Vegas Summer League that the front office decided to shut him down.
The biggest variable, though, remains Mobley. Atkinson will keep demanding more, the way Christopher Walken demanded more cowbell. Mobley already made a huge leap, but he has top-10 player potential. Playing with more assertiveness and less deference to teammates could prevent the playoff stagnation that forces Mitchell into Superman mode.
Defense
Cleveland’s trees were a nightmare for opponents last year. With Allen and Mobley on the floor together, opponents managed just 110.3 points per 100 possessions. Both protect the rim at a high level, and both can survive on the perimeter, which is rare.
Allen finished in the 96th percentile in DEPM (+1.8), slightly above Mobley (+1.6). Still, Mobley claimed Defensive Player of the Year and his second First-Team All-Defense nod. His agility is what makes the pairing viable, allowing him to guard quicker forwards while Allen mans the paint.
Ball adds intrigue. His health will always be a question, but before injuries, he was one of the league’s best perimeter disruptors. Even last season in Chicago, after two years off, his metrics were very favorable defensively (+1.4 DEPM). Normally, Cleveland lacks backcourt stoppers. Ball could change that.
Hunter, Wade, and Tyson give Atkinson some capable defenders on the wing, while Strus, despite athletic limitations, competes hard. The reality, though, is that Mitchell and Garland cap the defensive ceiling. In the playoffs, when teams relentlessly hunt weak links, that’s the Cavs’ biggest vulnerability.
Outlook
The Eastern Conference is considered wide open, but Cleveland has the talent to slam that window shut. This team wasn’t healthy when Indiana sent them packing in the second round, but most of the talk was about the Cavaliers’ shortcomings. Run it back healthy, and they could flip the narrative.
For the regular season, health concerns make the Under 56.5 wins the safer call. Still, Cleveland has a great shot at winning the East (+240) and an outside shot at winning the title (+800). So, after last year’s extraordinary regular season turned into a playoff flameout, there’s only one thing left to do: win the whole f****** thing.
Prediction: Under 56.5 Wins
