The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Dallas Mavericks. Keep reading to see how we think the Mavs will do compared to their regular season win total of 39.5.
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Offense
The big question for Dallas is when Kyrie Irving will return from the torn ACL he suffered in March. That will ultimately determine how good this offense can be. With Irving — who averaged 24.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on 47.3/40.1/91.6 shooting splits — the Mavericks have everything they need to look like a top-10 offensive team.
Irving is one of the greatest isolation scorers in league history, a deadeye shooter, and a willing passer. Even if he was brought in as Luka Doncic’s co-star, he’s capable of running an elite offense himself.
Of course, Dallas also needs Anthony Davis to stay healthy. The former Laker was bothered by a groin injury late last year and required offseason eye surgery, adding to an already lengthy injury history. But when he’s available, Davis is still a dominant face-up scorer and finisher. In 51 games between Los Angeles and Dallas last season, he averaged 24.7 points, 11.6 boards, and 3.5 assists.
Together, Irving and Davis give Dallas one of the best guard-big duos in basketball. And GM Nico Harrison, who has to wear a fake mustache around Dallas after shipping Luka away, has done good work filling in around them.
Klay Thompson, Max Christie, P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin, Naji Marshall, and Dante Exum are all back. Thompson isn’t the versatile scorer he once was, but he remains deadly as a catch-and-shoot threat (39.1% on 7.7 attempts per game). Christie, an underrated piece of the Luka trade, averaged 11.2 points and is reliable both spotting up and creating a little off the dribble. Washington provides floor spacing (38.1% from deep) and the ability to attack closeouts. Lively and Gafford are both dangerous lob targets. Martin and Marshall are versatile glue guys who fit in any lineup. Exum is a steady backup guard who defends, moves the ball, and knocks down open shots.
Harrison also added D’Angelo Russell on a bargain two-year, $13 million deal. Russell’s pull-up shooting and playmaking should hold down the fort until Irving returns, and he’ll transition into an instant-offense sixth man afterward. Jaden Hardy could also get some reserve creator minutes.
And then there’s Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft. The Duke product has long been billed as a generational prospect, and his combination of length, athleticism, and IQ should make him an immediate contributor. At 6-foot-9, Flagg is an explosive driver, a crafty mid-range scorer, and a better-than-expected shooter (38.5% at Duke). He’s also a sharp passer, giving Jason Kidd the option of using him as a point forward.
All told, Dallas has the depth to function like a top-20 offense without Irving. Once he’s back, the ceiling rises dramatically.
Defense
If Davis stays healthy — always the caveat — this Mavericks team could be elite defensively. He’s been in the 95th percentile or better in Defensive EPM in four straight seasons and 10 of 13 overall. Davis remains a top-tier rim protector, post defender, and switch option. Lively has the tools to become similar, which gives Dallas the chance to mirror Cleveland’s twin-towers look.
Flagg also projects as a special defender. His instincts as a help-side rim protector are elite, he plays passing lanes well, and his size and quickness allow him to guard multiple positions. There’s a non-zero chance he develops into somebody that can guard one through five.
Dallas is stacked with wings who embrace defense. Martin, Marshall, Christie, and Washington all compete, giving Kidd flexibility in how he deploys lineups. The one weak spot is at point guard, where Irving and Russell are both shaky. Irving, at least, competes, and while he’s out, Kidd can lean on Exum’s size and defensive chops off the bench.
Kidd’s system will help, too. He asks his players to pressure the ball and stay aggressive, which pairs well with one of the biggest, most athletic rosters in the league. With Davis, Flagg, and Lively, this group has the potential to suffocate opponents.
Outlook
The Mavericks will be a strange team this season. Without Irving, they’ll look like a Play-In squad. With him, they can beat anybody — including the Thunder.
That upside makes them worthy of a small play in the futures market. At 22-1 to win the West and 40-1 to win the title, there’s value in taking a chance and crossing your fingers for good health. You might even get a better number if Dallas starts slow.
For the regular season, the Over on 39.5 wins looks appealing. The West is loaded, but this roster is deep, competitive, and built to grind out wins. With Davis anchoring the defense, Flagg developing on the fly, and Irving eventually returning, Dallas should be a problem.
Prediction: Over 39.5 Wins
