The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Denver Nuggets. Keep reading to see how we think the Nuggets will do compared to their regular season win total of 54.5.
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Offense
The Nuggets raised eyebrows when they fired Mike Malone, the coach who guided them to the 2022-23 title. But behind the scenes, friction was building. Malone clashed with the front office over playing time for recent draft picks, and meanwhile Denver’s defense was slipping.
Since David Adelman had already been the architect of the offense, promoting him made sense. He wasn’t going to break what worked, and he might bring fresh ideas elsewhere.
That’s exactly how it played out. Adelman did a strong job as interim head coach, guiding Denver back to elite status and pushing eventual champion Oklahoma City to seven games in the second round. Now, instead of starting over, the Nuggets enter the season with continuity. Adelman will keep making life easy for Nikola Jokic, adding small tweaks without changing the formula.
Jokic, for his part, was brilliant again. His 29.6 points and 10.2 assists per game were career-best marks, and he added 12.7 rebounds per game. Jokic also shot a career-best 41.7% from three on increased volume. His +7.8 Offensive EPM led the league. He’s still the best offensive player in basketball — dominant on the block, automatic with his floater, improved as a shooter, and unmatched as a passer, regardless of position.
Jokic will continue to work with Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Christian Braun. The Murray-Jokic two-man game remains impossible to defend when Murray’s healthy. He battled through another up-and-down regular season but was there when it mattered, still a deadly pull-up shooter and clutch scorer. Gordon, meanwhile, reinvented himself as a sniper, jumping from 29.0% to 43.6% from three last year. He remains a lob threat and versatile playmaker. Braun keeps improving his jumper, adds rim pressure, and impacts games without needing touches.
The big offseason move was trading Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson. Porter was productive during the title run, but declining health and poor defense led to the change. Johnson averaged 18.8 points for Brooklyn on 47.5/39.0/89.3 splits. He’s one of the league’s elite shooters, but also a more versatile scorer and smarter decision-maker than Porter. Johnson attacks closeouts, makes quick reads, and has enough athleticism to finish plays as a cutter alongside Jokic. The fit looks seamless.
The bench features Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, and Jonas Valanciunas. Hardaway is streaky but offers shooting and secondary scoring. Brown returns to the role he thrived in during Denver’s championship run: cutting, driving, and feeding off Jokic. Strawther is a floor-spacer who should eventually push his three-point percentage into the high 30s. Watson is a high-energy athlete who’s learning to contribute consistently. Valanciunas provides legitimate low-post scoring, making him arguably the best backup center the Nuggets have ever had behind Jokic.
Denver now has the league’s best player surrounded by a balanced mix of shooting, cutting, and creation. Don’t be surprised if this team finishes first in aORTG.
Defense
Defense is the bigger question. After the All-Star break, Denver’s raw defensive rating was 117.8 — essentially as bad as Washington’s season-long number, which ranked 28th. That collapse was a big reason Malone lost his job.
Adelman won’t turn the Nuggets into a defensive juggernaut, but he brought more structure late last season and into the playoffs. Braun and Gordon are the only true plus defenders in the starting lineup, but Jokic is better positionally than his reputation suggests. Off the bench, Brown and Watson add energy and versatility.
The encouraging part: Adelman is willing to experiment. He threw zones at the Thunder in the playoffs and has tried Jokic both at the level and in deep drop during pick-and-roll coverage. Denver probably won’t be great defensively, but Adelman won’t accept stagnation. Expect him to mix schemes in search of league-average results.
Outlook
If this roster isn’t better than the one that won the 2022-23 title, it’s damn close. Jokic is surrounded by shooting and versatility, the bench is deeper than it’s been in years, and Adelman has already shown he can steady the group.
The Nuggets are legitimate contenders again, arguably the team to beat in the West. But they’ve only won 55+ games once in the Jokic era, and health for guys like Murray and Gordon is always a concern. Add in how loaded the conference is, and nightly battles could cap the regular-season win total.
The smarter angle is backing Denver with plus-money futures — whether to win the West or another championship — rather than betting their win total. Everything they want is on the table.
Prediction: Under 54.5 Wins
