The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Golden State Warriors. Keep reading to see how we think the Warriors will do compared to their regular season win total of 45.5.
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Offense
Jimmy Butler’s arrival on February 8 changed everything for Golden State. Before the trade — which sent Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, and a protected first to Miami — the Warriors were 25-26 and ranked 21st in offense (112.2 points per 100). With Butler in the lineup, they won 23 of their final 31 games and posted the league’s seventh-best offensive rating (119.4). They knocked off second-seeded Houston in the playoffs and were up 1-0 on Minnesota before Stephen Curry’s hamstring ended the run.
Butler’s 17.9 points per game don’t tell the story. His rim pressure, free-throw volume (7.7 attempts), and playmaking (5.9 assists) lifted Curry’s burden and gave the Warriors an attacking dimension they sorely lacked.
With Butler, Curry, and Draymond Green back, Golden State should again flirt with top-10 production offensively. Curry remains the sun everything orbits. While he’s turning 38 in March, he averaged 24.5 points and 6.0 assists on 44.8/39.7/93.3 shooting splits last year. The numbers dipped a little with age, but the gear-shifting magic is still there when it matters. Green, turning 36, has also slowed, but his passing, instincts, and competitiveness still elevate everyone around him.
The Warriors also addressed a long-standing need by signing Al Horford. At 39, he’ll need his minutes managed, but he’s the stretch-five Steve Kerr has been wanting for years. Horford hit at least 41.9% from three in back-to-back seasons before slipping to 36.3% last year, and he’s still a clever passer who will thrive in Golden State’s read-and-react system.
Depth is a luxury here. Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, and Jonathan Kuminga could all be starters elsewhere. Podziemski handles and shoots, Hield is one of the league’s deadliest movement shooters (39.7% career from three), and Kuminga brings elite athleticism. If he sharpens his cutting and improves his jumper a touch, he could be either a long-term building block or a cleaner trade chip after his messy restricted free agency summer.
Beyond that, Kerr can sprinkle in De’Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Quinten Post, and even Seth Curry in spot minutes. It’s a deep, flexible roster.
In Curry, Butler, and Green, Golden State has three basketball savants with diverse skill sets, surrounded by a mix of vets and youth. The biggest obstacle is age. This group is fighting Father Time.
Defense
Butler didn’t just balance the offense — he gave Golden State its edge back. After his arrival, the Warriors allowed just 109.9 points per 100 possessions, best in the NBA. His ability to lock down wings freed others to be more aggressive, and after the All-Star break, opponents coughed up 17.6 turnovers per game, more than against any other team.
Green remains an All-Defense pillar, capable of neutralizing bigs, blowing up pick-and-rolls, and letting Kerr toggle between lineups of all sizes. Horford, while not a great rim protector, posted a +1.1 Defensive EPM last season (87th percentile). He positions himself perfectly, rotates on time, and can still switch competently.
Factor in scrappy bench options like Melton, Payton, and Moody, and the Warriors should comfortably stay in the top-10 defensively.
Outlook
Adding Horford to what Butler brought makes this roster more complete, even if it’s graying fast. Kerr has a deep toolbox to lean on if bodies break down. And if any of the stars miss time, Golden State can break the glass in case of emergency and let Kuminga shoulder more of the offense.
This franchise has topped 46 wins in eight of Kerr’s 11 seasons. Don’t expect it to change now. And GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. is committed to giving Curry another shot at a Western Conference run. If the Warriors are anywhere near the mix at midseason, expect them to be aggressive at the deadline.
Prediction: Over 45.5 Wins
