The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Indiana Pacers. Keep reading to see how we think the Pacers will do compared to their regular season win total of 37.5.
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Offense
Indiana was one game from an NBA title last year, with Tyrese Haliburton seemingly ready to carry the Pacers to the finish line. In Game 7 in Oklahoma City, he came out firing, hitting three triples in the opening seven minutes.
Then disaster struck. Playing on a bad calf, Haliburton tore his Achilles with 4:55 left in the first quarter. From there, Indiana simply didn’t have enough firepower. Because the injury came so late, the Pacers not only watched the Thunder lift the trophy but are also likely facing a lost 2025-26 season without their franchise star.
Indiana’s offense is what made the Pacers special — their pace, unselfishness, and balance forced rival front offices to rethink roster building. And Haliburton’s vision, passing, and shot creation can’t be replaced. He averaged 18.6 points and 9.2 assists on 47.3/38.8/85.1 shooting splits last season, with a +4.9 Offensive EPM that ranked fourth in the league.
To compound things, the Pacers also let Myles Turner walk. His salary was too big for a team no longer contending, but losing a 39.6% shooter from deep at the center spot hurts. Stretch bigs of that caliber are rare.
Down their offensive engine and a floor-spacing big, a steep decline seems inevitable. Still, Rick Carlisle has depth and creativity on his side, and Indiana should be able to field a top-15 offense.
Pascal Siakam will be massive this season. The three-time All-Star averaged 20.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists last year, and he got stronger as the playoffs progressed. A skilled scorer who punishes mismatches, Siakam should thrive with an expanded role.
Point guard won’t be the black hole you’d expect without Haliburton. Andrew Nembhard would start on plenty of teams. He averaged 13.9 points and 6.9 assists per 40 minutes on just 16.3% usage last year. With his role set to expand, a jump in production should follow. Behind him, T.J. McConnell remains an instant-energy spark.
Aaron Nesmith returns at the two as one of the NBA’s best three-and-D wings, shooting 43.1% from three last season. And then there’s Bennedict Mathurin — the X-factor. He averaged 16.1 points but only took 11.8 shots per game last year. This season, he’ll be asked to take 17 or 18. Mathurin has always been more isolation-heavy than Carlisle prefers, but Indiana doesn’t have the luxury of holding him back anymore. With his size, athleticism, and smooth game, he could emerge as a dangerous three-level scorer.
Obi Toppin is a valuable bench piece, a high-flyer who has become a reliable shooter. Younger players like Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, and Jarace Walker will also see more opportunity. Walker, in particular, is intriguing. He’s been working to add perimeter skills but will likely get minutes as a small-ball big now that Turner’s gone.
The center spot will be filled by committee. Isaiah Jackson provides rim-running and energy. Jay Huff is a stretch five who can sometimes throw down highlight dunks. Tony Bradley is a serviceable, no-nonsense player that did his job in the postseason. James Wiseman has expanded his range and is a big body around the basket. None can replace what Turner did. But like Billy Beane, Kevin Pritchard might have been able to “recreate him in the aggregate.”
Haliburton’s absence is a gut punch, but this can still be a tough group to guard. And a Mathurin breakout could give fans in the Hoosier State some life — making things palatable in the short term and offering hope for a return to contention down the road.
Defense
The Pacers might not regress much defensively — in fact, they could get better. Turner’s reputation as a rim protector exceeds his actual impact these days, and he’s not the same covering in space. Haliburton, meanwhile, was the weakest defender in the rotation. Removing him helps raise the floor of the entire group.
A starting backcourt of Nembhard and Nesmith gives Indiana one of the league’s better defensive duos. Both can guard the ball and switch across multiple assignments. At the forward spots, Carlisle will always have length and athleticism to lean on. Walker could earn serious time if his offense allows, because his defense is a major positive.
At center, Jackson, Huff, and Bradley all bring something useful defensively. Jackson was on his way to becoming a real game-wrecker before tearing his Achilles last November.
Indiana already had positive defensive markers last year, tied for fifth in threes allowed (12.9 per game) and top-10 in opponent turnovers (15.0 per game). They contest well and punish lazy ball movement. That identity should carry over.
Outlook
It’s a shame the Pacers won’t contend in 2025-26. Their playoff run was one of the stories of the season, and they were close to capping it with a championship. Without Haliburton — and with Turner gone — that dream is on the backburner.
But don’t count them out entirely. Carlisle still has a deep, versatile roster. A 40-win season is very realistic, and at plus-money odds, Indiana to make the playoffs isn’t a bad wager.
There’s also value in the awards market. Nembhard and Mathurin will both see major usage spikes, making them intriguing candidates for Most Improved Player.
Prediction: Over 37.5 Wins
