The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Los Angeles Lakers. Keep reading to see how we think the Lakers will do compared to their regular season win total of 49.5.
Make sure you download the 2025-26 NBA Betting Guide for full access to our entire season preview!
Offense
The internet nearly broke when news dropped that the Lakers had traded Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 first for Luka Doncic. In Dallas, fans wanted Nico Harrison’s head on a stick. In L.A., Rob Pelinka was being paraded down Figueroa.
Now Luka is the face of the franchise, and Pelinka’s challenge is threading the needle — putting together a roster that matches both Luka’s long-term timeline and LeBron James’ short-term window. JJ Redick, in his second year on the sidelines, will do everything possible to make sure this group competes immediately.
On this end of the floor, Luka, LeBron, and Austin Reaves make up a dangerous trio. In 50 combined games between Dallas and Los Angeles last year, Luka averaged 28.2 points, 8.2 boards, and 7.7 assists. He might be the most productive offensive engine in the sport, equal parts point guard and scoring wing, with an off-the-dribble three, bully-ball drives, and crafty finishes. He’s also in his best shape in years, so MVP buzz is already swirling. LeBron, somehow still explosive at 41 in December, can still go for 25-8-8 with deep shooting, mid-post scoring, and downhill rim attacks. Reaves continues to blossom, coming off a season of 20.2 points and 5.8 assists on 46.0/37.7/87.7 splits. He’s got a clean jumper, real off-the-bounce juice, and the ability to score at all three levels.
That core already showed promise. Together, Luka, LeBron, and Reaves scored 121.6 points per 100 possessions last year. Now it’s about finding the right complementary pieces.
There’s reason for optimism with the perimeter role players. Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura, Dalton Knecht, and Gabe Vincent can all play. Smart is the wild card. He knocked down 39.2% of his threes in Washington but just 32.2% in Memphis, and he hasn’t cleared 35% in six straight years. If the shot is there, he could actually make sense as a starter. LaRavia is a big wing who runs the floor, cuts hard, and has the athleticism to finish plays. Hachimura has quietly become one of the league’s better spot-up shooters, hitting at least 41.3% from deep the past two years, while also providing closeout attacking and some mid-range polish. Knecht and Vincent are meant to stretch defenses, though the former disappeared after a blistering start to his rookie season and the latter has been extremely disappointing since coming over from Miami.
Pelinka also landed Deandre Ayton as the new starting center. He averaged 14.4 and 10.2 in Portland but hasn’t posted a positive Offensive EPM since 2022. At 27, there’s still time for him to turn his career around, and he’ll get every opportunity here. The blueprint is simple: finish plays, avoid bad shots, and bring consistent effort. Even if he never looks like the player he was in Phoenix, he’s still an upgrade over last year’s carousel of Jaxson Hayes, Maxi Kleber, and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Redick has his work cut out managing rotations and egos, but his emphasis on spacing and positionless basketball fits well around Luka and LeBron. If Ayton clicks, Los Angeles will be very tough to stop.
Defense
The problem is obvious. Luka, LeBron, and Reaves lit up opponents offensively but got lit up themselves — allowing 120.3 points per 100 possessions. That’s why their net rating together barely scraped +1.3.
At this stage, LeBron just isn’t a plus defender anymore, which leaves all three stars as negatives on that end. That’s why there’s some noise about Smart starting, even if it means pushing Reaves to a sixth-man role. Realistically, that feels unlikely; Reaves has earned the right to start.
If the Lakers start Luka–Reaves–LeBron–Hachimura–Ayton, they’ll struggle in a big way. Ayton was once a solid rim protector, but it’s been a while. Without him rediscovering that form, that lineup features five questionable defenders. The bench doesn’t offer much relief either.
Defense killed the Lakers against Minnesota last spring, with the Wolves torching them night after night. It’ll be on Redick to make sure the same flaws don’t define an entire season.
Outlook
Having Luka and LeBron on the same team should mean success. They’re too skilled and too versatile to fail offensively. But defense is an important piece of the puzzle, and Pelinka hasn’t quite nailed the build around his star duo.
Long term, the mission is clear: preserve flexibility and maximize Luka’s prime, even if it means waiting out LeBron’s exit. But in the present, expectations are sky-high, and that sets the stage for a beautiful disaster.
There’s also the injury factor. LeBron is a prime candidate to miss time, and Bronny isn’t ready to fill the GOAT’s shoes when that happens.
If Ayton looks like the guy from Phoenix’s Finals run, maybe this team flirts with 50 wins. But that’s a big “if” for a player teetering on journeyman status. More likely, the Lakers are a top-5 offense paired with a bottom-tier defense — and that math rarely works out in the West.
Prediction: Under 49.5 Wins
UPDATE: This was all written in our NBA Guide, which came out before the LeBron injury news. Check out our quick update on Los Angeles’ season-long outlook now that LeBron is out 2-4 weeks with sciatica.
