The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Memphis Grizzlies. Keep reading to see how we think the Grizzlies will do compared to their regular season win total of 39.5.
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Offense
The Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins in March after defensive struggles and reported tension inside the organization. Locker-room spats didn’t help, and Jenkins clashed with GM Zach Kleiman on philosophy. Kleiman turned to Tuomas Iisalo, the Paris Basketball coach known for his offensive creativity. Initially brought in as an assistant to rework the offense, Iisalo showed enough as interim head coach for Kleiman to remove the tag.
One of Memphis’ organizational goals last year was to become less heliocentric — reducing Ja Morant’s heavy on-ball load while empowering others to create. That diversification worked statistically: the Grizzlies ranked fifth in adjusted offensive rating (117.1) and played at the league’s fastest pace (103.7). But Morant wasn’t thrilled with how little the ball was in his hands. The offense didn’t feature enough pick-and-rolls, neutralizing one of the game’s most explosive drivers. Jenkins tried to adjust, but the damage was done.
Iisalo’s system should be the compromise. His Paris teams thrived in transition and ran plenty of pick-and-rolls — often initiated with high ball screens. Once Zach Edey returns from ankle surgery, he’ll be a massive screener carving out space for Morant. Just as important, Iisalo’s sets involve off-ball movement around the main action. That means Morant gets his pick-and-rolls, but teammates are actively relocating, clearing space, or even running secondary actions. It’s all designed to manipulate the floor for open lanes and better spacing.
Morant, who averaged 23.2 points and 7.3 assists, should thrive. He’ll be unleashed in transition and set up to attack in the half court. The challenge will be staying on the floor — he hasn’t played 65+ games since his rookie season — and improving on last year’s 30.9% from three.
Jaren Jackson Jr., sidelined briefly with a toe injury, also fits perfectly. He shot 37.5% from three and will get clean pick-and-pop looks, plus space to attack closeouts with floaters or finishes.
The big loss is Desmond Bane, dealt to Orlando after averaging 19.2 points and 2.4 threes per game. Memphis believes it can replace much of his production with Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Wells was steady as a rookie, averaging 10.4 points on 35.2% from deep. Jerome nearly won Sixth Man of the Year, averaging 12.5 points and 3.4 assists on 51.6/43.9/87.2 shooting splits for Cleveland, and his on-ball numbers without Donovan Mitchell suggest untapped upside. Caldwell-Pope struggled in Orlando’s clunky offense (34.2% from deep) but is a career 36.7% shooter who should bounce back.
Santi Aldama, Cedric Coward, and Edey are also key. Aldama averaged 12.5 points and hit 36.8% from three on high volume, earning a $52.5 million extension as part of the long-term core. Coward, a big wing Memphis has long coveted, brings shooting and a mid-post game without needing many touches. Edey averaged 9.2 points and 8.3 rebounds, but looked far better once paired with Morant in pick-and-rolls. His size and soft touch make him a tough cover, and there’s even hope he develops a jumper.
Beyond that, Memphis has plenty of youth and depth. Vince Williams, John Konchar, GG Jackson, and Cam Spencer can all contribute. Scotty Pippen Jr. could even force his way into a starting role with his playmaking and crafty scoring. Brandon Clarke’s eventual return from a knee injury would add an energetic finisher, rebounder, and short-roll passer. Iisalo’s teams normally crash the glass hard, so he’ll be hoping Clarke and Edey help there.
Without Bane, there’s some doubt this group can be top-10 offensively. But the mix of Morant, Jackson, shooting at the two-guard spot, and Iisalo’s system suggests otherwise. If healthy, this team can still be one of the league’s tougher covers.
Defense
Jenkins’ dismissal was ultimately about defense. Through January 15, Memphis was fifth in points allowed per 100 possessions (110.2). From then on, they slipped to 19th (116.3), becoming far too beatable.
Iisalo’s defensive vision emphasizes pressure: picking up full court, sticking to assignments in transition, and shrinking the floor in half-court settings. Execution will be tricky, especially with Morant’s inconsistent on-ball defense and Edey’s slow feet. But help is there. Pippen Jr. brings energy at the point of attack, Jackson remains an elite rim protector who can cover ground, and Iisalo’s drop coverage could hide Edey’s limitations.
Losing Bane actually helps a little on this end. Wells, Caldwell-Pope, and Coward should all be stronger defenders.
Memphis probably won’t get back to the top 10 defensively, but reaching league-average is realistic. With fewer breakdowns and a more coherent scheme, that should be the target.
Outlook
The Grizzlies will look different without Jenkins and Bane, but expectations shouldn’t crater. When Morant and Jackson are healthy, this team wins games. And the Bane replacement committee of Jerome, Caldwell-Pope, and Coward is better than most realize.
This roster still profiles as top-10 offensively and top-15 defensively, which translates to 40+ wins. With better injury luck, Memphis could push 45+ and emerge as the best of the West’s non-contenders. The sky isn’t falling.
Prediction: Over 39.5 Wins
