The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Miami Heat. Keep reading to see how we think the Heat will do compared to their regular season win total of 36.5.

Make sure you download the 2025-26 NBA Betting Guide for full access to our entire season preview!

 

Offense 

Erik Spoelstra is one of the sharpest basketball minds on the planet, but his Heat teams have gone cold offensively. Miami has finished outside the top 20 in adjusted offensive rating three straight years, and breaking that trend will be a challenge.

The Heat actually shot the ball well from deep last season (36.7%) but were only 16th in attempts (37.3 per game). They also ranked 25th in rim frequency (28.3%) and took the fourth-fewest free throws per game (20.2). Instead, they leaned heavily on the mid-range, ranking 10th in frequency (31.7%). It’s a shot profile badly in need of modernization, but so far, talk of change hasn’t materialized. Miami played at 97.2 possessions per 48 minutes last season — barely faster than the year before — and the shot diet looked the same.

Tyler Herro is trying to push things forward. He averaged a career-high 23.9 points and 5.5 assists, while upping his threes to 8.7 per game. But foot surgery will sideline him for at least the first month of the season, leaving Miami in a tough spot early.

Bam Adebayo’s offense remains an issue. He settles for too many inefficient mid-range jumpers. Only six players attempted more 10–14 foot shots per game than Adebayo’s 3.1, and all six converted at a higher rate than his 43.3%. He also shot just 41.3% on 5–9 foot attempts. If he’s going to remain an offensive hub, his shot selection must improve.

The addition of Norman Powell should help. The veteran averaged a career-best 21.8 points with the Clippers while shooting 41.8% from three on 7.1 attempts. Powell also brings downhill pressure, able to finish at the rim and draw fouls — something Miami sorely lacked.

Development from Nikola Jovic and Kel’el Ware is another key. Jovic showed flashes of being a floor-spacing big with off-the-dribble potential, averaging 10.7 points on 45.6/37.1/82.8 splits. He needs consistency, though his strong EuroBasket stint for Serbia suggests a leap could be coming. Miami seems to agree, as the team locked him down with an extension right before the season. Ware, drafted as a stretch big, shot just 31.5% from deep as a rookie. If he pushes that to 35%, he’ll play more next to Adebayo. That frontcourt pairing had strong metrics last season. 

Growth from Pelle Larsson and Jaime Jaquez Jr. would also help. Larsson impressed as a rookie three-and-D wing, while Jaquez struggled through a sophomore slump. Both are rotation wild cards.

Finally, Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins are players that did well for the Heat last year, and they might have more to give. Mitchell is a steady shooter and playmaker, while Wiggins — who has 20-point scoring talent — might benefit from a full summer dose of “Heat Culture.”

With Powell’s rim pressure, Herro’s shooting, and potential growth from the supporting cast, a climb into the top 15 offensively isn’t out of the question. But given the roster makeup and reliance on mid-range-heavy stars, there’s not much ceiling here.

Defense

Defense is where Miami thrives. The Heat have finished top-10 in adjusted defensive rating in each of the last five years, and that shouldn’t change in 2025-26.

Butler may be gone, but the team replaced him with Wiggins, a plus-level wing defender. They also added Mitchell, a gritty point-of-attack pest nicknamed “Off Night.” Adebayo remains the defensive centerpiece, capable of anchoring the paint while switching onto guards — versatility that has earned him five All-Defensive selections.

Ware looms as the X-factor. Spoelstra wants him on the court for his rim protection, and the numbers back it up: lineups with Ware and Adebayo gave up only 110.4 points per 100 possessions last season (85th percentile per Cleaning The Glass). Adebayo prefers guarding fours, Ware protects the rim, and together they’re suffocating.

Like a good rug, Spoelstra’s aggressive system will tie the whole room together — forcing turnovers, scrambling to disrupt stars, and contesting shots. If Ware can handle heavier minutes, Miami should also improve on the glass, where they ranked just 20th in rebound rate (49.6%).

Outlook

The Heat’s championship window looks closed. Riley and Spoelstra always chase stars, but Miami has stopped short of going all-in, and the roster reflects it. A successful season now means making the playoffs — a sharp comedown for a franchise that spent over a decade in the East’s spotlight.

That said, the floor is high. Continuity, competitiveness, and Spoelstra’s leadership matter, especially in a weak conference. Miami has topped 36 wins in each of Spoelstra’s 17 seasons, and with the win total set at 36.5, history leans in one direction.

The biggest risk is Herro’s recovery dragging longer than expected. But in a league where plenty of teams don’t mind losing, Miami’s refusal to tank makes the Over the more appealing side.

Prediction: Over 36.5 Wins