The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Milwaukee Bucks. Keep reading to see how we think the Bucks will do compared to their regular season win total of 42.5.
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Offense
The Damian Lillard trade didn’t work out the way Milwaukee hoped. The idea was that pairing Lillard with Giannis Antetokounmpo would reopen the championship window. But the two-man game never fully clicked, injuries kept stalling progress, and Lillard’s torn Achilles in the first round against Indiana was the final blow. The Bucks used the stretch provision to move off his contract, creating the cap space to sign Myles Turner away from the Pacers.
That pivot made it clear: the Bucks are all in on “Point Giannis.” Late last season, with Lillard sidelined by a blood clot, Milwaukee got hot by rolling the ball to Giannis and surrounding him with shooters.
After the All-Star break, the Bucks went 19-10 with the league’s eighth-best raw offensive rating (117.9). That gave GM Jon Horst a vision: swap out Brook Lopez for Turner and run everything through Giannis.
Turner was once defined by his defense, but at this stage he’s arguably better on offense. His Defensive EPM peaked at +3.0 back in 2019, but it has hovered near neutral since. Offensively, though, he’s been trending up. Two years ago he posted a +2.0 Offensive EPM, and last season he had a career year as a shooter — 2.2 threes per game on 39.6% from deep, at 5.5 attempts per night.
Going from Lopez to Turner should be seamless. Both are strong pick-and-pop threats, but Turner offers more variety and upside.
Beyond Giannis and Turner, the starting lineup is less clear. Options include AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr., Kevin Porter Jr., Kyle Kuzma, and Taurean Prince — the group that held things together late last season.
Green might have the inside track on one of the spots. He shot 42.7% from three, and lineups with him and Giannis scored 123.9 points per 100 possessions. Trent is another pure floor spacer, something you can’t have too much of around Giannis. Porter offers on-ball creation that Doc Rivers may value. Kuzma and Prince both slot in as stretch fours, though Kuzma tends to freelance while Prince embraces a defined role — which could make him the safer fit.
Off the bench, Bobby Portis and Cole Anthony will add some punch. Portis is a fearless scorer who thrives on confidence and can hurt defenses inside or out. Anthony is a shifty creator who should benefit from Milwaukee’s spacing; if not, Ryan Rollins is another option with juice.
Keep an eye on Amir Coffey and Andre Jackson Jr. too. Coffey shot 40.9% from deep with the Clippers and adds versatility on the wing. Jackson’s jumper remains shaky, but he’s an elite athlete with great feel — the kind of connective piece good teams need.
The concept works: Giannis averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists last season. Surrounded by shooting, he’ll put up MVP-caliber numbers again and keep Milwaukee operating like a borderline top-10 offense. The question is whether that’s enough.
Defense
The offense should be strong, but defense is the real question. After the All-Star break, Milwaukee’s raw defensive rating was 113.4 — roughly league average. Swapping Lopez for Turner should help. Lopez was pushing 40 and was no longer able to guard in space. Turner isn’t what he once was, but he’s still mobile enough to provide more resistance.
With Giannis and Turner, the Bucks will have two intimidating rim protectors. But perimeter defense is a glaring weakness. Of the rotation players mentioned above, only Jackson really digs in. That makes it too easy for opponents to get to the rim in the first place.
Rivers, however, is an asset here. For all his critics, he simplifies things defensively and consistently produces above-average results. The Bucks should be fine in the regular season. The postseason is another matter, when weak defenders are relentlessly targeted.
Outlook
Giannis’ future looms over everything. If the Bucks don’t improve, he could push for a trade. And Milwaukee might even decide to explore moving him if building a winner around a top-five player proves impossible. That’s why hypothetical Giannis trades flood the internet.
For now, though, this looks like a borderline playoff team in a weak Eastern Conference. That makes the Over on 42.5 wins appealing, and grabbing plus-money on 45+ wins could also be smart.
Whether this team can compete with Cleveland, New York, or Orlando is another story. That probably requires another move — and the Bucks are short on assets.
Prediction: Over 42.5 Wins
