The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Keep reading to see how we think the Timberwolves will do compared to their regular season win total of 49.5.
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Offense
Just before the start of the 2024-25 season, Minnesota traded Karl-Anthony Towns to New York for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and a pick. Many saw it as a cost-cutting move — and maybe it was — but president of basketball operations Tim Connelly knew exactly what he was getting.
Replacing Towns, the second-leading scorer in franchise history, was no small task. He averaged 21.8 points and 8.3 rebounds in 2023-24, made four All-Star Games, and while his “greatest big man shooter” claim drew laughs, his career 40.0% mark from three does a decent job of backing it up. Losing that kind of floor spacing raised fair concerns.
Early returns weren’t pretty. In their first 19 games, the Wolves scored just 113.2 points per 100 possessions, Randle and DiVincenzo struggled to find their fit, and the offense looked clunky.
But Chris Finch adjusted. From December 1 through the end of the season, Minnesota averaged 117.9 points per 100 possessions — seventh-best in the league.
Anthony Edwards shouldered more of the perimeter load and blossomed as a shooter. He hit 4.1 threes per game on 39.5% shooting, leading the NBA with 320 made triples. Around him, Naz Reid, DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Mike Conley all shot at least 37.9% from deep. Randle and Jaden McDaniels did their part in spacing the floor, too.
The Wolves finished fifth in makes (15.0 per game) and fourth in percentage (37.7%), improving from 12.6 makes per game the prior season.
Beyond the shooting, Randle gave Minnesota something Towns didn’t: a true No. 2 shot creator. His downhill force, physicality, and tough shot-making took pressure off Edwards and helped the team win two playoff series.
Looking ahead, there’s no reason Minnesota can’t rank top-10 in offensive efficiency again. Alexander-Walker is gone, but the Wolves believe Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. can cover that ground. Shannon, in particular, looks like a fit: athletic, explosive in transition, improving as a shooter, and tailor-made to run alongside Edwards and Randle.
Edwards himself should keep ascending. He has been hard at work trying to add some mid-post moves, knowing that a back-to-the-basket game is something that can make the team dangerous when games are tight down the stretch. Edwards is also primed to boost his assist percentage and trim turnovers. At 24, the game should start slowing down for him.
With Edwards as a superstar, Randle as a proven No. 2, and everyone else knowing their roles — including Rudy Gobert as a play-finisher — Finch’s read-and-react system should continue to keep opponents off balance.
Defense
Gobert doesn’t need to be mentioned much on offense, but defensively he remains one of the league’s premier anchors. Last year, the Frenchman made the All-Defensive Second Team, marking the eighth time in the last nine years in which he has made one of the two squads.
Gobert doesn’t block as many shots as he used to (1.4 per game last year, down from 2.1 in 2023-24), but his verticality, rim deterrence, and immaculate positioning remain elite. He powered Minnesota to a top-five defense last year (110.5 adjusted defensive rating) and can surely do it again.
McDaniels is outstanding on the wing, using his length to smother scorers. Edwards has grown into a committed defender who can handle his man while digging to help. And even the Wolves’ less-athletic pieces take pride in being in the right spots and staying connected.
Losing Alexander-Walker stings — he was a feisty, versatile guard defender. But Minnesota’s identity on this end is still intact: size, pressure, and competitiveness. They’ll remain one of the toughest teams in the league to score on.
Outlook
The Wolves stumbled out of the gate last season, opening 9-10 as they adjusted to life without Towns. But once Randle settled in, they played at a 50-win pace and stormed to the Western Conference Finals.
That context makes the Over appealing. Minnesota may not carry the flash of some West rivals — especially some of the ones that shook things up in the offseason — but their continuity and chemistry raise their floor. Add in growth from Edwards, Shannon, and Dillingham, and there’s upside beyond just stability. Jaylen Clark, who has three-and-D potential, could be part of the equation, too.
Don’t forget: the Wolves won 56 games in 2023-24. An average of 52.5 wins over the last two seasons should give bettors confidence in 50-plus wins again.
Prediction: Over 49.5 Wins
