The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the New Orleans Pelicans. Keep reading to see how we think the Pelicans will do compared to their regular season win total of 30.5.
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Offense
The Pelicans have become a punchline. Usually, the jokes center on Zion Williamson’s weight, but the front office gave critics fresh material. Trading CJ McCollum — a proven 21.1-points-per-game scorer on an expiring contract — for Jordan Poole, an inefficient gunner with an extra year left on his deal, was widely mocked. The draft-night move raised even more eyebrows: packaging the No. 23 pick and an unprotected 2026 first to move up to No. 13, where they selected Derik Queen.
Queen could turn into a very good center, and pairing him with first-round guard Jeremiah Fears makes for an intriguing rookie class. But mortgaging a potential top-10 pick in a loaded 2026 draft (with Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and AJ Dybantsa headlining) was a huge gamble. For Troy Weaver, in his first year as GM, the margin for error is slim.
The optimism is that this roster can compete for a postseason spot. That starts with Williamson, who finally appears in the best shape of his career. He averaged 24.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in just 30 games last season, finishing in the 94th percentile in Estimated Plus-Minus. When healthy, he’s been one of the league’s most dominant players, bullying his way to the rim, creating for teammates, and injecting energy into the building. The challenge is durability: he’s topped 70 games only once.
Williamson does have ideal running mates. Herb Jones saw his three-point percentage dip from 41.8% in 2023-24 to 30.6% last year, but when he’s making shots he’s a smart, versatile piece who cuts, drives, and makes quick reads. Trey Murphy III, meanwhile, is a perfect complement. He averaged 21.2 points while launching 8.3 threes per game at a 36.1% clip. His shooting stretches defenses, opening lanes for Williamson, and Murphy is also improving as a pull-up scorer and finisher. Jordan Hawkins could carve out minutes for the same reason: spacing.
The center group looks stronger, too. Yves Missi contributed 9.1 points and 8.2 rebounds as a rookie and fits as a lob target in pick-and-rolls. Kevon Looney adds screening, offensive rebounding, and grit. Queen, though undersized for a five, is a skilled face-up scorer, crafty around the rim, and an excellent passer. If his jumper comes along, he could be special.
Point guard is the real swing spot. Poole can fill it up, but he’s far better suited as a sixth man than a lead guard. Jose Alvarado offers steadier table-setting and defense, so Willie Green may lean on him. Long term, the future belongs to Fears, who brings dynamic shot creation, smooth playmaking, and a fearlessness with the jumper.
Help is on the horizon, too: Dejounte Murray is targeting a January return from a torn Achilles. He’s the one guard on this roster who can organize an offense, hit pull-ups, and close games with poise. Until then, the Pelicans will be missing that stabilizing force.
Green’s “0.5” offense — built on quick decisions and ball movement — will be tested by Poole’s ball-stopping habits. But with Williamson attacking, Murphy spacing, and some intriguing depth, this group has more balance than people think.
Defense
For New Orleans to overachieve, Williamson must finally show something defensively. At Duke, he looked like a future switchable stopper; in the NBA, that promise hasn’t materialized. Now in shape, he should have the agility to guard wings and the strength to battle bigs, but it’s time to prove it.
Otherwise, the defensive framework is solid. Poole will be the weak link, but Jones and Murphy bring the length and instincts to form one of the league’s better wing tandems. Missi flashed natural rim-protection instincts as a rookie and should improve with added muscle.
Alvarado gives the backcourt a defensive spark, pressuring full court and living up to his “Grand Theft Alvarado” nickname. That energy makes him a candidate to close games.
Last year’s Pelicans gave up 14.6 threes per game, the second-worst mark in the league. But with Poole replacing McCollum and better defensive pieces around Williamson, this team should at least trend toward competence on this end.
Outlook
On paper, this roster isn’t bad. A fit, All-Star-level Williamson surrounded by shooters, a lob target in Missi, and Murray returning midseason is a reasonable formula. But durability and fit issues remain glaring. Even slimmer, betting on Williamson to play 60+ games is dicey. And Poole is a questionable fit on both ends.
If Murray were healthy from Day 1, 40 wins would be in play. As it stands, 30 feels more likely than 40. That makes the Under the sensible lean — not a slam dunk bet, but the most realistic call for a flawed roster with too many variables.
Prediction: Under 30.5 Wins
