The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Keep reading to see how we think the Thunder will do compared to their regular season win total of 62.5.
Make sure you download the 2025-26 NBA Betting Guide for full access to our entire season preview!
Offense
The Thunder enter 2025-26 as defending champions after taking down the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Pacers to win the franchise’s first title. Most of the talk around their 68-win season focused on the defense, but you don’t raise the Larry O’Brien without scoring. Oklahoma City finished fourth in adjusted offensive rating (118.5).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the engine. The 27-year-old averaged 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds on 51.9/37.5/89.8 splits. He ranked second in both Offensive BPM (+8.9) and Offensive EPM (+7.0), and his play drove him to a league-best 20.9 Estimated Wins and his first MVP award.
SGA is unguardable. He lives at the rim, drawing 8.8 free throws per game, dominates the mid-range with his stepback and mid-post game, and keeps improving from three. Add in his passing and calm demeanor in crunch time and there’s really no way to keep him down.
Gilgeous-Alexander is flanked by two budding stars. Jalen Williams averaged 21.6 points, 5.3 boards, and 5.1 assists. Like SGA, he scores at all three levels, but with more physicality. He’s a tank attacking downhill, and his jumper is smooth. Chet Holmgren put up 15.0 points and 8.0 rebounds, stretching defenses with his pick-and-pop shooting while also attacking slower bigs off the dribble. Despite being built like a mechanical pencil, Holmgren finishes inside with toughness.
Depth is another area Oklahoma City separates. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe could probably play bigger roles elsewhere. Here, they space the floor — most near 40% from three — and embrace supporting roles.
Before last season, the Thunder added Isaiah Hartenstein to supply interior toughness. He pairs with Holmgren against bigger teams, but he also fits their style with his floater, passing, and quick decision-making. He doesn’t stretch the floor, but he doesn’t clog it either.
The pipeline of talent is absurd. Nikola Topic, once a projected top-five pick before his ACL tear, and Ajay Mitchell are waiting in the wings. Topic in particular has the tools to be a high-level creator when his time comes.
All of this feeds into Mark Daigneault’s system, one of the most innovative in the league. It allows SGA the isolation time he needs while keeping everyone else moving and engaged.
If there’s a nitpick, it’s that the Thunder sometimes hesitate to bomb from deep. They launched threes at a top-10 rate in the regular season but were more reluctant in the playoffs. Then again, they still ended up with the trophy.
Defense
“Defense wins championships” was validated by Oklahoma City’s run. The Thunder posted a 106.7 adjusted defensive rating — the best mark since 2021-22 and even more impressive given the offensive explosion across the league.
They had two All-Defensive selections, Dort (First Team) and Williams (Second Team). But Wallace and Caruso might be even better stoppers, and Holmgren is elite as a rim protector. Add in Hartenstein’s size and even SGA’s capable work, and it’s no wonder opponents were suffocated.
The stats tell the story. Opponents averaged 17.0 turnovers per game against OKC, most in the league. The Thunder were the only team to average double-digit steals (10.3), finished second in blocks, and held foes to a league-low 34.2% from three.
This roster is loaded with defensive dawgs. They have size, athleticism, and versatility to match any style. They’re also built for playoff basketball. Dort and Caruso, in particular, play with a physical edge that refs often let slide in big moments. Against Minnesota in the West Finals, there were stretches when Wolves guards struggled just to advance the ball past half court.
Outlook
The Thunder looked more vulnerable in the playoffs than expected, but they rose to the occasion and claimed the title. SGA was brilliant throughout, while Williams and Holmgren earned their playoff Master’s degrees, emerging tougher and more polished after experiencing some ups and downs.
Oklahoma City enters 2025-26 as the betting favorite to repeat, and the case is obvious. Their core is young, improving, and surrounded by depth. The roster is balanced, the system works, and they’ve already proved they can finish the job.
That said, title defenses rarely come easy. The Thunder’s youth won’t exempt them from a championship hangover, and the Western Conference has only gotten tougher. Expect every opponent to treat them like the measuring stick. Another Finals run is very possible, but surpassing 63 regular-season wins will be difficult.
Prediction: Under 62.5 Wins
