The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the San Antonio Spurs. Keep reading to see how we think the Spurs will do compared to their regular season win total of 44.5.
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Offense
Victor Wembanyama won’t be a finished product for a few years, but he’s already pushing top-five status. The 7-foot-3 phenom averaged 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists last season, hitting 35.2% of his 8.8 threes per game before a blood clot ended his year. He burned opponents as a pick-and-pop threat, lob finisher, and even self-creator. A true three-level scorer at his size is almost unfair.
The question now is what kind of roster to build around him. In theory, surrounding Wemby with shooters would fast-track San Antonio into a top-10 offense. But that’s not exactly how this team looks today.
At last year’s deadline, the Spurs traded for De’Aaron Fox. He averaged 23.5 points and 6.3 assists, and he’s shown he can lead an elite attack — Sacramento was first in adjusted offensive rating in 2022-23 with Fox at the helm. His burst off the bounce and pull-up game should complement Wembanyama nicely. But Fox remains streaky from deep, shooting just 31.0% last season and topping 35.0% only twice in eight years. If the jumper doesn’t come around, the ceiling is capped.
The backcourt picture is even more complicated because San Antonio also has Stephon Castle, last year’s Rookie of the Year, and Dylan Harper, the No. 2 pick in the 2025 draft. Both are explosive athletes who thrive as drivers and playmakers but lack reliable outside shots. Balancing minutes — and spacing — among Fox, Castle, and Harper will be tricky.
On the wing, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Harrison Barnes all bring different strengths. Vassell disappointed after signing his extension, averaging 16.3 points on decent but unspectacular efficiency. He looks more like a solid third or fourth option than a budding star, spacing the floor and creating in small doses. Johnson remains an energy guy who attacks the rim hard, but his three-point shooting slipped to 31.8% and needs to rebound. Barnes is the steady vet, providing 12.3 points per game and high-level shooting (43.3% from deep). He won’t be a game-changer offensively, but his floor spacing and professionalism matter.
First-rounder Carter Bryant adds intrigue as a combo forward. He projects as a spot-up shooter who can cut and finish in transition. Whether he develops more off-the-dribble skills will determine his ceiling, but he should contribute quickly. Jeremy Sochan also remains part of the puzzle. He can’t shoot, but he’s athletic, versatile, and impacts games in subtle ways.
San Antonio also improved its frontcourt depth. Luke Kornet provides size, screens, and finishing, while Kelly Olynyk — when healthy — brings shooting and passing from the five. Both can keep things functional in Wemby’s minutes off the floor.
Ultimately, the Spurs have plenty of talent around their superstar, but the guards will dictate the ceiling. Mitch Johnson preaches spacing and high-volume threes, yet the roster isn’t naturally built to play that way. How flexible he is in tailoring the system to his players will be crucial. He’d be wise to lean on Gregg Popovich as much as possible.
Defense
As good as Wembanyama already is on offense, he’s even scarier defensively. Last season he averaged 3.8 blocks and 1.1 steals, finishing fourth in Defensive EPM (+3.2). He’s the best shot blocker in the world, alters every drive to the rim, and has the foot speed to switch onto perimeter players when needed.
Sochan pairs nicely with him in the frontcourt, adding versatility and toughness. Bryant should eventually slot in as a long, athletic wing stopper. Castle already looks like a Jrue Holiday–type at the point of attack, hounding ball handlers for 94 feet.
Still, not everyone fits the defensive mold. Fox, Johnson, and Vassell all fall short of expectations guarding their positions, and that will cause headaches. The Spurs also had glaring team issues last year: they allowed 14.4 made threes per game (fourth-worst) and ranked 26th in defensive rebounding (69.0%). Until those numbers improve, the defense will be inconsistent no matter how dominant Wemby is.
Outlook
The Spurs are stockpiling talent around a generational star, and their time will come. But it probably won’t be this season. The roster construction is messy, with redundant skill sets in the backcourt and questions about spacing and defense on the wings.
In a loaded Western Conference, San Antonio looks like one of the shakier postseason hopefuls on paper. Wembanyama alone ensures competitiveness, but the overall mix isn’t ready for prime time. The long-term future is blindingly bright; the short-term outlook is bumpier.
Prediction: Under 44.5 Wins
