The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Utah Jazz. Keep reading to see how we think the Jazz will do compared to their regular season win total of 18.5.
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Offense
Will Hardy hasn’t had the roster to prove it yet, but he’s one of the sharper tactical minds in the league. Coaches and diehards know it — just look at 2022-23, when Utah ranked 10th in adjusted offensive rating (115.6) despite a front office committed to tanking.
Unfortunately, the Jazz are still in that mode. Lauri Markkanen is the only established piece, and he’s a prime trade candidate. He averaged 19.0 points and 5.9 rebounds last year, then put up 23.1 and 8.1 in another strong EuroBasket run. “The Finnisher” remains an elite floor-spacing big who punishes closeouts and has improved as a self-creator. He’s also under contract for four more years, which makes him attractive to contenders. His presence almost makes Utah too competitive to tank — “almost” being the key word, especially after his frequent absences last season.
Utah doubled down on the youth movement by moving on from John Collins. Now, the franchise’s future hinges on Ace Bailey, the No. 5 pick. Bailey underwhelmed at Rutgers (17.6 points, 7.2 boards on 46.0/34.6/69.2 splits), but the eye test shows a 6-foot-8 wing with pull-up shooting, elite athleticism, and natural scoring instincts. In Hardy’s system, he should find easy looks as a cutter, spot-up shooter, and secondary pick-and-roll option. Expect plenty of growing pains, but the upside is real.
The guard play is shakier. Isaiah Collier flashed playmaking brilliance, ranking in the 97th percentile in assist percentage (34.1%), but his 25.1% turnover rate was disastrous. Keyonte George averaged 16.8 points but shot just 39.1% from the field and 34.3% from deep. He may profile better as a long-term sixth man if his efficiency doesn’t improve. Hoping to stabilize things, Utah spent the 18th pick on Walter Clayton Jr., the lead guard on Florida’s title team. A confident scorer and leader, he’ll get his chances right away.
Up front, Markkanen and Taylor Hendricks provide shooting and athletic finishing, while the center spot is a relative strength. Walker Kessler is more valuable defensively but finishes well and crashes the glass. Kyle Filipowski impressed as a rookie, shooting 35.0% from three and flashing creativity as a ball handler and post-up threat. Jusuf Nurkic is still around, though he’s unlikely to factor heavily into the equation.
Cody Williams is another swing piece. His rookie year was a disaster, but his mobility and ball-handling at his size remain intriguing. If Hardy can restore his confidence, there’s still upside.
Despite Hardy’s ability to preach the right types of shots — Utah ranked sixth in three-point attempts last season (39.8) — expect more sloppy, inefficient basketball. The guards make too many mistakes, and the spacing isn’t consistent. This will be another season of experimentation rather than results.
Defense
The defense was even worse. Utah gave up a league-high 14.9 made threes per game and allowed opponents to shoot 69.5% at the rim, second-worst in the NBA. They were also 29th in transition defense, giving up 119.9 points per 100 possessions. Simply put, they were bad everywhere.
Some of that was the byproduct of youth and tanking, but little has changed. The point-of-attack defense is soft, leaving Kessler exposed on the back line. He’s an excellent shot blocker, but there’s only so much he can do when guards get blown by.
If Williams earns rotation minutes, his length and agility could help a bit. The same goes for John Tonje, the 53rd pick, though he’s more likely to spend time in the G League. Realistically, though, this team is headed for another bottom-five finish on this end.
Outlook
You need to be really bad to win fewer than 18 games, but the Jazz could get there. Hardy can coach and Markkanen is an All-Star-caliber talent, but the rest of the roster is nowhere near playoff-level. If Markkanen misses time — or gets moved — things could get ugly fast.
That said, there will still be betting value. Utah has historically been strong against the spread at home, and that’s worth tracking early in the season. Player props will also be worth a look; someone has to put up numbers, even on a team this bad.
Prediction: Under 18.5 Wins
