A lot was made of Boston’s favorable path to the NBA Finals last year. However, what truly matters is that the Celtics enter this season as defending champions, and it’s hard to argue they aren’t deserving. Boston finished first in the NBA in net rating (+10.8), first in adjusted offensive rating (122.0) and second in adjusted defensive rating (111.2) last season. The Celtics were nearly flawless, winning 64 games in the regular season and handling their business with ease in the playoffs. They were historically dominant all year, which is why they’re understandably the betting favorites to win back-to-back titles.
The Celtics retained all of their key players from last year’s squad. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Al Horford are all back, along with bench contributors like Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman.
The only real concern heading into this season is Porzingis potentially missing the first half due to an injury that required surgery after last year’s playoffs. While Porzingis played through the injury in the Finals — the medical staff didn’t think he risked further damage — he eventually needed surgery. The Celtics will undoubtedly miss his two-way presence. Last season, Porzingis averaged 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game while shooting a career-high 51.6% from the field. His floor spacing (37.5% from 3) and shot-blocking were key assets for the team.
With Porzingis sidelined for a couple of months, it’s tough to envision the Celtics matching last season’s win total or advanced stats profile. However, Boston is still capable of elite play without him. The Celtics went 31-6 in games Porzingis missed last season, and the team remains a force with Horford and Kornet stepping into larger roles. Holiday and White still form the best defensive backcourt in the league, and no team boasts a better two-way duo than Tatum and Brown. When you combine those strengths with Joe Mazzulla’s innovative coaching, Boston maintains a significant advantage on most nights.
Offensively, Mazzulla’s system relies heavily on 3-point shooting. The Celtics play a five-out offense, meaning every player on the floor can knock down open shots — and they’re not shy about taking them. Last season, Boston led the NBA in 3-point rate, attempting triples on 43.7% of their possessions, and they ranked second in 3-point accuracy, hitting 39.3% of their non-heave attempts. This team can break games wide open with its shooting, and that perimeter threat creates a lot of isolation space for players like Brown and Tatum, who are three-level scorers.
Defensively, Boston excels at guarding the 3-point line, forcing opponents into taking shots the Celtics themselves avoid. They defend the corners particularly well, with only one team allowing a lower shooting percentage on corner 3s. Boston was also fifth in rim defense, holding opponents to 63.6% shooting at the basket — an area where Porzingis’ absence will be felt. He was an elite rim protector last season.
Ultimately, there’s no reason to view the Celtics any differently this year. As long as Porzingis doesn’t suffer any setbacks, they remain the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. The Sixers, Knicks, Bucks, Cavaliers and Magic will all have a say, but until someone knocks off this version of Boston, the road to the Finals runs through Beantown. If you want to temper expectations for the Celtics during the regular season due to Porzingis’ absence, that’s understandable. But don’t expect any struggles to last. This team will be firing on all cylinders when it matters most, and last year’s title run only made Boston more dangerous. The Celtics now have championship DNA.
Celtics Win Total Prediction
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics have the best record in the Eastern Conference this season. This team won 64 games last year and took home the 18th NBA Championship in franchise history. However, with Porzingis likely to miss a couple of months, along with several conference foes pushing the chips in this summer, it’s hard to expect 59 wins out of Boston. Even some of the non-contenders in the East will be tougher on a night-by-night basis. So, I’d suggest going Under on this win total, but the Celtics can still accomplish all of their goals in the long run.
Lean: Under 58.5 Wins (-110)
