On Tuesday, December 17th, the Milwaukee Bucks face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Emirates NBA Cup championship. This has been an exciting tournament thus far, and the finals shouldn’t be any different. These games have been highly competitive over the course of the event, but this is the one in which each player from the championship team will leave T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada with $500,000. That said, keep reading for odds, picks and player props for this game, and make sure you also check out our live VSiN programming for more analysis. Our talented hosts and analysts will surely spend some time talking about these games.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bucks vs. Thunder
When: Tuesday, December 17th at 8:30 pm ET
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
Channel: ABC
Bucks vs. Thunder Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, December 16th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Thunder -185, Bucks +154
Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-110), Bucks +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 215 (-108), Under 215 (-112)
Bucks vs. Thunder Analysis
The Thunder are now 17-2 straight-up with either Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein in the lineup. Oklahoma City is also first in the league in adjusted net rating (105.4), and that’s the best mark a team has posted since Milwaukee had a 103.1 adjusted defensive rating back in 2019-2020. It’s just unbelievably difficult to score against this Thunder group. However, Oklahoma City isn’t exactly perfect. The team is just seventh in adjusted offensive rating (114.9) right now, and the Thunder put a lot on the shoulders of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 26-year-old is averaging 30.3 points and 6.3 assists per game, so he can definitely handle it. But in a game like this, it’s a little hard to imagine Oklahoma City winning easily without somebody really stepping up. Perhaps Jalen Williams will. He’s having a career year for the Thunder, averaging 21.7 points and 5.0 assists per game. He’s a great No. 2 for Oklahoma City, and this would be a non-issue if the team had Chet Holmgren out there. But as things currently stand, if this one turns into the type of low-scoring affair that I think it will, it might make sense to grab the Bucks +5.5.
The reality is that the season-long advanced numbers don’t tell the whole story for Milwaukee. This has been a different team in the last month. In fact, since November 18th, the Bucks are 10-2 SU. In that span, Milwaukee is ninth in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (118.0) and 10th in overall efficiency differential (+5.0). But over the course of the entire year, the Bucks are just 11th in points per 100 possessions (115.0) and 15th in efficiency differential (+0.2). This team is starting to look like the Eastern Conference contender we all expected this season. That was evident when Milwaukee and Boston went down to the wire at TD Garden on December 6th.
It’s just not that crazy to think that the Bucks will rise to the occasion in a half-court game, and that’s exactly how all of these NBA Cup game have been played. On the season, Oklahoma City and Milwaukee have the exact same points per 100 plays (101.3) in half-court situations. The difference is that the Thunder have been much better defensively in that setting. But I tend to think that a playoff-like game will even things out a bit. Milwaukee might not have an answer for Gilgeous-Alexander, but the team will feel good about its chances of defending pretty much everybody else. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been locked in as a free safety-like weapon lately, which is why he has 15 total blocks and steals over the last three games. And Brook Lopez is still a good deterrent around the rim.
Offensively, Damian Lillard and Antetokounmpo will be able to create shots, even against a great Thunder defense. Realistically, they’re the best one-two punch in this matchup by a significant margin. And keep an eye on the lineups that include Lillard, Antetokounmpo, Lopez and sharpshooter AJ Green. Milwaukee is outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per 100 possessions with those four on the floor. Green’s improved defense has been a revelation this season, as he’s no longer a guy that teams are hunting off the floor. And as a 47.6% 3-point shooter, he gives the Bucks stars all the space in the world to operate.
I’d just be surprised if this game ends up being lopsided, so I don’t like the idea of playing Oklahoma City to cover. However, the Under is probably the best bet on the board in this game. The average amount of points scored in the six knockout-round games we have seen this year is 208.9 points per game. The Under is also 5-0 in the five Las Vegas games we have seen in NBA Cup history. And these teams both play styles that lean more towards the Under. The Bucks have actually gone Under in 14 of the 25 games they have played this year, and the same is true for the Thunder. Also, the Under is 3-0 in the three games Milwaukee has played against Western Conference opponents. It’s also 3-1 in the four games Oklahoma City has played against Eastern Conference opponents.
Bucks vs. Thunder Player Props
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+140)
I went to this play at +100 in the semifinals, so there’s no way I’m going away from it at +140. Antetokounmpo is averaging 5.0 “stocks” per game over the last three games, and that includes a total of 11 combined steals and blocks in the two games he has played in the NBA Cup knockout stage. When the lights are brightest, Antetokounmpo shows up defensively. I know the Greek Freak has slipped a little as a defender in recent years, but his block rate is actually up at 4.1% this year. That’s the highest mark he has posted since 2016-2017. And while his steal rate is down, he is going to be aggressive in playing the passing lanes against this Thunder team.
Bucks vs. Thunder Pick
The Under is 5-0 in the five knockout-stage games that have been played in Vegas in the history of the NBA Cup. With this final featuring two teams that primarily like to execute in a half-court setting, it’s hard to imagine that changing. That said, if I were playing anything in this game, I’d probably go with the Under. However, I’d also consider gobbling up Milwaukee at +5.5. The only reason I’m not touching it is that I have the Bucks to win the tournament at +600. I tweeted that play out immediately after the Franz Wagner injury news came out.
Lean: Under 215 (-112)
