In 2022, the Hornets finished with a 43-39 record and made the Play-In Tournament, thanks in large part to LaMelo Ball playing 75 games. The team ranked ninth in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating that season, and Ball’s fun, uptempo brand of basketball made Charlotte unique. However, in the past two seasons, Ball has only appeared in 58 games due to injuries.
If Ball stays healthy, the Hornets could once again compete for a Play-In spot, though that’s undoubtedly a big “if.” But Ball will reportedly wear ankle braces this season, which is a good start. Ball suffered three ankle injuries in 2022-23, so he realizes he needs to try something.
Despite his limited playtime in 2024, Ball posted the highest EPM of his career at +3.2, which placed him in the NBA’s 93rd percentile. His stats last season (23.9 PPG, 8.0 APG, 5.1 RPG), and really all throughout his young career, show he can be the engine of a great offense.
Ball’s strengths include his exceptional passing and consistent 3-point shooting, which he has maintained despite a significant increase in volume. If he can improve his finishing as a driver, he could be an All-NBA player.
Defensively, Ball needs to recapture his 2022 form, as he posted a -0.2 Defensive EPM. That number is far from impressive, but Charlotte will be fine defensively as long as Ball isn’t killing his team on that end of the floor. New head coach Charles Lee will play a crucial role in guiding Ball and the rest of the team.
Lee, 39, has already made a name for himself as an assistant for two championship teams: the 2021 Bucks and 2024 Celtics. Both teams were Top 10 in the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and Lee’s experience should help foster a winning culture in Charlotte. His leadership and attention to detail make him a promising fit for this Hornets roster, which isn’t in as rough of shape as you might think.
Lee is also very in tune with the modern style of basketball. Last year’s Celtics shot more 3s than any team in the league, and Lee understands the importance of that shot. That alone will be big for a Hornets team that was just 16th in the NBA in 3PT frequency (35.9%) and 22nd in 3PT shooting (36.1%) in 2023-24. Perhaps the shots won’t fall right away, especially given the look of this roster. But Charlotte’s shot profile will be a lot healthier from Day 1.
One player to watch this year is second-year forward Brandon Miller, who averaged 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists as a rookie while shooting 44.0% from the floor and 37.3% from 3. Miller is a smooth three-level scorer, and with Ball setting him up, he’s only going to get better. Lee could also help Miller become a more effective wing defender, building on his length and willingness to compete.
Mark Williams is another player that should thrive in a better overall environment. The 22-year-old rim runner is an ideal pick-and-roll partner for Ball and a very impressive rim protector. However, he needs to stay healthy after appearing in only 19 games last season. He already sprained his foot and missed time in training camp, but it doesn’t seem like an injury that will bother him once the real games start.
Miles Bridges, despite being a polarizing figure, remains a key player. Last year, he averaged career highs in points (21.0) and rebounds (7.3) per game, though his shooting percentages dropped, and his defense was a mess. But the team having real aspirations to compete could light a fire under Bridges, who has proven he is capable of being a two-way contributor.
The Hornets also boast decent rotation pieces in Grant Williams, Josh Green, Tre Mann and Nick Richards. Williams, who spent four years in Boston, brings floor spacing, good decision-making and leadership to the team. Green, acquired from the Mavericks, is a 3-and-D player with athleticism. Mann is a dynamic ball handler with an elite ability to create space, though he still needs development. Richards, a high-energy backup center, averaged 9.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.1 blocks last season and stepped up when Williams was injured.
First-round pick Tidjane Salaun is another intriguing prospect. At 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan and a solid jumper, Salaun has the tools to develop into a very good player, though he needs time to refine his skills.
With a new head coach, a balanced roster and low expectations, the Hornets could surprise some people this season. The young guys will just need to listen to Lee and be willing to battle on the defensive end on a nightly basis. Without a pretty big defensive turnaround, Charlotte isn’t going anywhere. But this team has the right pieces and system to be good enough on that end of the floor, and the goal within the organization is to be competitive immediately.
Hornets Win Total Prediction
I love the Hornets to go Over 29.5 and I’m also going to put a little something on them to win 35+ games at +245 odds. I’m aware this is essentially a bet on Ball’s health, but I’m fine with that. Players generally figure out how to stay healthy eventually, and Ball seems like he’s willing to make some changes in order to get there this season. If he plays a decent number of games, this could be the most improved group in the league.
Bet: Hornets Over 29.5 Wins (-110) & Win 35+ Games (+250 – 0.5 units)
