Denver Nuggets season preview
This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.
Nuggets Betting Odds
NBA Finals: +475
Conference: +250
Division: -475
Win Total: 54.5
Playoffs: Yes (-4000)
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Team Analysis
The reigning champions head into the 2023-2024 regular season in a great position to repeat as champions. There are some changes to the depth of this roster, but the best starting lineup in the NBA returns, and with a perennial MVP on the floor in Nikola Jokic the Nuggets are primed to make another run at a championship.
Last season, when Denver had Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets outscored opponents by 12.7 points every 100 possessions. That net rating was the best among lineups that played at least 1,000 possessions together, according to Cleaning The Glass. In the postseason that crew posted a +10.0 net rating and averaged 121.0 points per 100 possessions.
That starting lineup will be among the best in the NBA again this season, so it is safe to assume that Denver will compete again for a top seed in the Western Conference. However, the changes to this team – while minimal – could have a massive impact on their place in the standings.
Bruce Brown’s departure is the most obvious change to this roster. Brown was incredible in his time with the Nuggets. He averaged 11.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 80 games last season. His efficiency differential on Cleaning The Glass ranked in the 21st percentile (-6.3), but that is a symptom of playing with the best player in the NBA. Denver still outscored opponents by 1.1 points per 100 possessions with Brown in the regular season, and his postseason impact was insane.
The Nuggets outscored opponents in the playoffs by 9.4 points per 100 possessions with Brown on the floor. When he played with the starting lineup in place of Caldwell-Pope, they posted a +50.9 net rating and averaged 1.463 points per possession. He even closed out a win in the Finals over Miami, dropping 21 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the floor.
Not only is Brown gone, but so too is Jeff Green who averaged 7.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 56 regular season games last season. And while Brown and Green might not register as massive losses for some, their departures are magnified by who is taking on their roles this season.
In the frontcourt behind Gordon and Jokic is a mix of unproven talent, as Zeke Nnaji and Peyton Watson are currently penciled in as the primary backup options for Jokic and Gordon.
Nnaji averaged only 14.7 minutes last season, and when he played center, which were 80% of his minutes, the Nuggets were outscored by 7.8 points per 100 possessions. Nnaji is athletic enough to get up the floor in transition on offense, and he is good enough from distance that he needs to be respected from the perimeter, but he is slight for a five and has never been an effective rebounder. Watson appeared in only nine games his rookie season and is a massive unknown from a production standpoint.
Bettors might remember Christian Braun playing impactful minutes in the Finals, but the reality is Braun averaged only 4.7 points and 2.4 rebounds in 15.5 minutes per game. His role will be exponentially larger this season. Of the three players penciled in on the two deep only one – Nnaji – has more than two years of experience. Rookie Jalen Pickett, who signed a four-year, $8.3 million deal, will even play a role for this team in the regular season.
There is a core of veterans on this bench too. However, they do come with their flaws.
It has been eight seasons since DeAndre Jordan positively impacted a team’s net rating (-17.2 efficiency differential last season). Reggie Jackson will also take on a much bigger role for the Nuggets this season now that Brown is gone. Jackson can be an effective offensive player and off-ball guard, but having him as the primary scoring guard is not ideal. He has not finished better than the 29th percentile in points per shot attempt in the last two seasons.
Once the postseason begins, this team will be as formidable as it was last season. But, this regular season will be about developing young players for larger roles once the postseason begins, and that could lead to an overall decline from the production this team had last season.
Win Total Analysis
The bench might be worse than it was last season, but Denver’s schedule might allow it to still finish as one of the top three seeds in the Western Conference.
According to Positive Residual, the Nuggets have the lowest strength of schedule (.485). Denver’s net rest advantage is even, with only nine games with an advantage and nine with a disadvantage, and it is also among the 10 teams with the fewest back-to-backs (13) this season.
As bettors also know, they have one of the stronger homecourt advantages in the NBA. Last year the Nuggets went 44-8 SU/30-21-1 ATS in both the regular and postseasons. Denver outscored opponents by 11.0 points per 100 possessions at home in the regular season in non-garbage time. That was the second-best net rating at home in the league. Should they hold serve at home once more this team will push to surpass its win total.
But, this is not the same team. At the top, the elite talent remains, but the depth is unproven. It is likely that the Nuggets will make sure the young role players on this roster get plenty of run throughout the regular season, as they will need to be ready for what Denver hopes to be another run at a championship.
Those factors and the highest win total on the board equate to a play on the under. The Nuggets are a threat to win the NBA Finals once again, but to ask this team to win 55 or more games when there are so many unknown factors on the bench is not a wager worth making.
Win Total Recommendation: UNDER 54.5
