The NBA Finals matchup is set, so I asked VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen for his thoughts on the Pacers-Thunder series, starting Thursday:
Everybody was saying that the Pacers needed a win in Game 6, as nobody believed Indiana would go into Madison Square Garden and win a Game 7. I was never there with that level of panic, as the Pacers did win two games in Manhattan to start the series. However, Indiana didn’t leave it to chance. The Pacers beat the Knicks 125-108 in a game in which they shot 54.1% from the floor and 51.5% from deep. Tyrese Haliburton had 21 points and 13 dimes in the game, and Pascal Siakam, who won Eastern Conference Finals MVP, had 31 points on 10 for 18 shooting. That was the end of an odd series, which might have gone the other way had New York not blown a 119-105 lead with 2:51 left in Game 1. But that’s ancient history now.
Indiana will now look to win its first NBA championship. That feels crazy to write considering the rich basketball history in the The Hoosier State, but the Pacers won three ABA titles and haven’t been able to hoist a trophy since the merger in 1976.
Unfortunately for Indiana, beating Oklahoma City is going to be a tough task. DraftKings Sportsbook opened with the Thunder as -750 favorites, giving OKC an implied probability of 87.5% to win the title. Over the last 40 years, only six teams have been bigger favorites than Oklahoma City, and all six of those teams went on to win the championship.
While everybody seems to view the Pacers as an elite offensive team, Dunks & Threes had the Thunder with a better adjusted offensive rating during the regular season (118.5 vs. 115.4), and Oklahoma City also happened to have a historically-great defense. On top of that, the Thunder have the league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Oklahoma City should win the series without too many hiccups. The question is: how long will it take?
>>Zach’s full analysis and a pre-flop Best Bet.
Stanley Cup Final preview
The Stanley Cup Final doesn’t begin until Wednesday, but VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis has posted his favorite wagers for the Panthers-Oilers rematch.
They are all based on the following prediction:
I am banking on the fact that the Final won’t go the distance. I like the Oilers to get their revenge and win in six games or fewer.
>>Jonathan’s analysis and Best Bets.
MLB today
Greg Peterson has filed his top plays for today.
Josh Appelbaum and Steve Makinen will post their Best Bet contributions later this morning.
NASCAR Best Bets
Steve Makinen has posted his final simulation for tonight’s Cracker Barrel 400 in Nashville:
Denny Hamlin jumps to the top spot on the final simulation after a great Saturday of practice and qualifying. He also has my No. 1 track rating here so he will clearly be one of, if not, the favorite(s). This will be just the 5th race at the Nashville Superspeedway, but they’ve been somewhat predictable, with guys starting out front having an edge. With that in mind, Tyler Reddick starts 4th and was best in practice so he checks in at No. 2 on the simulation. Pole sitter Chase Briscoe is third and could be an “underdog” contender to get his first win of the season. William Byron and Ross Chastain, the pair that battled for the win last week at Charlotte, round out the top 5 on the projections.
Interestingly, Kyle Larson, who was first on the initial simulation on Tuesday, drops to 9th after a miserable Saturday on-track. Of course, he can never be fully counted out.
Here are my personal projections:
Top 5: Hamlin, Reddick, Bell, Briscoe, Elliott
Top underdogs to consider: Briscoe, Wallace, Allmendinger, Gibbs
Favorites to struggle: Blaney, Bowman, Beuscher, Busch
Quick Hits
Tennis: Zach Cohen posts his Best Bets daily during the French Open on our tennis page the day before. He and Gill Alexander have their plays on the tennis picks page.
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon has picks for today’s menu at Churchill Downs.
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