Expert NBA Best Bets and Player Props Today – Thursday, February 29th

Zachary Cohen runs through his NBA best bets and player props, featuring picks for Jazz-Magic and Heat-Nuggets.

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Feb 27, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) looks for an opening during the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Thursday, February 29. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on February 29

 

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2023 Record: 221-197-2 (+13.07 units)

NBA Best Bets Today – February 29

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET

The Heat are playing their third game in four days, but I’m not worried about them being tired. They had an off day yesterday and several key pieces, including Jimmy Butler, were suspended in their win over the Sacramento Kings. So, I don’t think this is a fatigue situation for the road team. Miami is also 8-2 straight-up and 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 games. In that span, the Heat are fifth in the league in net rating, and they’re second in the league in defensive rating. They also happen to have Bam Adebayo, one of the league’s best interior defenders, to throw on Nikola Jokic.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Nuggets were a bit tired tonight. They’re playing the second night of a back-to-back, as they beat the Kings by 21 points last night. Of course, the fact that the game was a blowout helps in the rest department. But Jokic still played 32 minutes in that game, and Jamal Murray played 33 minutes. Murray has actually been a little banged up recently. So, it’s entirely possible that he sits this game out. That would mean more value on the Heat at this current number. But I like their chances of keeping this game competitive regardless. That’s why I’m going bigger on them as one of tonight’s NBA best bets.

Bet: Heat +5 (-110 – 2 units)

NBA Player Props Today – February 29

Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic – 7:00 pm ET

Before going 0-2 against the Brooklyn Nets last game, Wendell Carter Jr. had hit at least two 3s in three straight games. At 41.1% shooting from 3, the big man is one of the best shooters on the Magic. That said, Orlando will look to get him some open shots against a Utah team that can’t defend the 3. This season, the Jazz are giving up more made 3s per game than anybody but the Chicago Bulls. Opponents are also shooting extremely high percentages from deep against them. With that in mind, I like Carter to hit multiple 3s at plus-money odds tonight. Do I wish Carter shot more 3s per game? Sure. But I think he’ll be a little more aggressive in a plus matchup, and I trust the quality of looks he’ll get. That’s why he’s my one NBA player prop for tonight.

Bet: Carter Jr. 2+ Alt Made 3s (+180 – 0.5 units)

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