The 2023-24 NBA regular season is coming to an end and we’re continuing to tackle it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel continues to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Tuesday, April 2nd. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 1
2023 Record: 294-312-2 (-16.40 units)
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NBA Best Bets Today – April 2
New York Knicks at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
The Knicks have lost two games in a row and are looking vulnerable right now. And they continue to be without OG Anunoby and Julius Randle, and that’s especially tough in a matchup like this one. Over the last 10 games, Miami is second in the league in defensive rating, so New York needs all the shot making it can get. Without it, it’s hard to envision this one not going the Heat’s way.
Miami is starting to get back to full strength, with Tyler Herro and Josh Richardson being the only players listed as out here. And Herro’s return seems imminent. That said, the Heat are going to be the more talented of these two teams tonight, and they’re also the better-coached group. The Knicks have also won two games against the Heat already this season. But since 2021-22, the Heat are 28-15 against the spread when playing a team that has beaten them twice in the same season. And I’m not even asking them to cover, I’m just sucking it up and dealing with the juice.
Miami should have a good plan in place to make Jalen Brunson uncomfortable, and part of that will be Terry Rozier attacking him on the other end of the floor. And while the Knicks usually have a significant edge on the glass, the Heat will be ready to battle on the boards. That’s why I’m loading up on them with tonight’s NBA best bets.
Bet: Heat ML (-145 – 2 units)
Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 pm ET
Houston had won 11 games in a row before losing by 18 to the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. But the Rockets should be able to put that behind them and turn in a competitive effort against the Timberwolves. Minnesota is actually coming off a bad eight-point loss to the Chicago Bulls, and that was a game in which the Wolves were favored by 8.5 points. So, Minnesota will be looking to bounce back from that, and I’m not saying the Wolves shouldn’t win this game. But the Rockets are a top-10 team in defensive rating this season, and they’re fourth in the league in offensive rating over the last 15 games. So, this is a Houston team that must be taken seriously. And this spread isn’t showing the Rockets much respect.
Houston’s Jalen Green has the ability to go shot for shot with Anthony Edwards here, and that duel on the perimeter should be electric. But I also like the defense the Rockets have on the wing with Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith. This is a team with length and athleticism, so they should be able to disrupt a lot of Minnesota’s drives to the basket. And Fred VanVleet will be the best point guard on the floor here, giving the Rockets an edge at an important position.
The Rockets also happen to be 16-7 ATS when facing teams that beat them earlier in the season. And they’re facing a Wolves team that is just 21-34 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.
Bet: Rockets +7.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 pm ET
The Over is 28-16 when the Spurs have played with totals of 220 to 229.5 over the last two seasons. Now, San Antonio will be playing without Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan for the remainder of the season. Those are two of the best defensive players the Spurs have. So, even though Victor Wembanyama is one of the best defenders in the league, San Antonio should be more of an Over team moving forward. And the team has gone Over in three straight games, as well as four of its last five. So, the Spurs are already playing high-scoring games.
These two teams also happened to play a game in which 252 points were scored back on November 26th. They then played one in which 223 were scored on March 15th. But the average there is 237.5 in the two games they have played. And one thing to keep in mind is that Nikola Jokic has a massive weight advantage over Wembanyama. So, Wembanyama might be an incredible defender, but he is no match for Jokic. But defensively, the Joker is also no match for Wembanyama. Both players should eat offensively in this game, paving the way for something of a shootout — especially considering Denver’s guards should feast on a San Antonio team that can’t guard the perimeter.
Bet: Over 223.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
The Mavericks are the fifth-ranked team in the league in adjusted offensive rating, which is what you’d expect from a team with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. But over the last 15 games, the Mavericks are also a top-10 team when it comes to defensive rating. And that’s a big part of the reason that Dallas is 11-1 both straight-up and ATS in its last 12 games. The Mavericks have also held opponents to under 110 points in seven consecutive games. With that in mind, I think Dallas will be able to stifle a Golden State team that is no longer the juggernaut it once was offensively.
The Mavericks are also 2-0 with a pair of 10-point wins over the Warriors this season. And I’m just not sure what will change here. Maybe Golden State will turn in an inspired effort as it looks to hold off Houston for the 10th seed. But the Mavericks are the better team on both ends of the floor. They also have the best player on the court. And while Steph Curry has the ability to go off, Irving can probably match his production.
Bet: Mavericks +1.5 (-110 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 2
Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
Keegan Murray is a player that is mostly known for his offense. And I flirted with taking the Over on his point total, and I also considered his made 3s player props. But I ended up settling on Murray to have two or more “stocks.” In March, Murray averaged 1.1 blocks per game and 0.8 steals per game, and he had at least two combined in eight of the 15 games the Kings played. Well, Sacramento is facing a Los Angeles team that runs a lot of its offense through Paul George. And Murray will likely be handling that defensive assignment here. So, with Murray likely to be around the ball a lot, I like his chances of having a big game when it comes to defensive activity. He has gone Over 1.5 steals and blocks in both of the games he has faced the Clippers this year.
Bet: Murray Over 1.5 Steals and Blocks (-138)
Added Plays
Toronto Raptors +12.5 (-115 – 1.5 units) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
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