We are already nearing the end of the NBA Playoffs, as we’re into the NBA Finals. Jonathan Von Tobel already did some great work on the matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics, doing an in-depth series preview, a look at head-to-head series props and analysis on series leaders in a number of statistical categories. JVT will also continue to provide you with his exceptional game-by-game deep dives. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday, June 6th. Also, check out our NBA Finals Betting Hub for all of our series content.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on June 6
NBA Best Bets Today – June 6
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics (Game 1) – 8:30 pm ET
The Celtics have had a ton of time to rest for this specific game, and that allowed Kristaps Porzingis to get himself right. After missing each of the last two series, Porzingis is ready to rock in Game 1. And he does present some real problems for the Mavericks, as he’s a floor-spacing big that can also protect the rim on the other end of the floor. However, while the Celtics have had ample time to get ready for this game, the same can be said about the Mavericks. Sure, Dallas didn’t end up sweeping the Minnesota Timberwolves last round, but the quick five-game series gave the Mavericks a week of rest and preparation. That should have been plenty. I ultimately just think that this is way too many points for Dallas to be getting to start the series, and I think we’re going to end up seeing smaller spreads after the first battle.
The most important thing for me is that these are two elite defensive teams. The Celtics were second in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (111.2) over the course of the regular season, according to Dunks & Threes. But the Mavericks were seventh in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.4) after the trade deadline acquisitions of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, according to Cleaning The Glass. Dallas was also first in defensive rating over the final 15 games of the regular season, and the team’s 111.1 defensive rating in the playoffs would have been good for the fifth-best mark in the league in the regular season. If these teams are both playing to their potential on the defensive end, I just don’t see much room for either group to separate and cover massive spreads. And if the game is close late, I trust Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to execute at a higher level in half-court situations.
Ultimately, I’m fully aware of the fact that Dallas is a trendy public underdog. That’s generally a team you want to avoid. But I can’t get on board with seeing this big of a number next to a team that has beaten better competition — the Western Conference was a heck of a lot better than the Eastern Conference this year — and plays a style that is trustworthy every night.
Bet: Mavericks +6.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – June 6
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics (Game 1) – 8:30 pm ET
With Porzingis back, the Celtics are always going to have a center that can pull the opposing big away from the basket on the floor. That could mean that the Mavericks will have to play Dereck Lively II and Maxi Kleber a bulk of the center minutes. Gafford has been solid for Dallas, but he’s a little slow in the foot for a series like this. With that in mind, I like the idea of playing Kleber to score at least three points. Not only is he Dallas’ best defensive big when it comes to guarding the perimeter, but he’s also their best option as far as playing five-out on offense goes. Kleber can legitimately shoot the 3-ball, and I think he has a good shot at hitting one in this game. So, I’m taking a shot on this one in Game 1. And I don’t think you’ll see it this low in the coming games, as I think it’ll become clear that Kleber needs a bigger role in the series.
Bet: Kleber Over 2.5 Points (-115)
Mavericks vs. Celtics Series Prediction
I’m not going to be surprised if the Celtics win this series. In fact, I would be on Boston if the Celtics were closer to -150 or so. I think there’s a 55-60% chance Boston wins. But a -225 price is an implied probability of nearly 70.0%. And I just don’t know if the Celtics would win this series seven out of 10 times. Boston might be the more well-rounded team, but Dallas does a good enough job of staying in games. When you can do that, having the best player on the floor is extremely important. And make no mistake about it, Doncic will be the best player on the floor in this series. And honestly, Irving might be a better late-game player than both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. So, if I had to bet something here, I think Dallas would be the small play as the underdog in this series.
Lean: Mavericks To Win (+188)
2023-24 Record: 383-421-3 (+4.48 units)
