We are already nearing the end of the NBA Playoffs, as we’re into Game 3 of the NBA Finals. The Boston Celtics are up 2-0 on the Dallas Mavericks, and the series now heads to Texas for Luka Doncic and Co. to try and even things up. Make sure you check out what Jonathan Von Tobel is doing for the rest of the series. He’s still providing his exceptional game-by-game deep dives, while also jumping on any trending topics in the NBA. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday, June 12th. Also, check out our NBA Finals Betting Hub for all of our series content.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on June 12
NBA Best Bets Today – June 12
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks (Game 3) – 8:30 pm ET
Kristaps Porzingis is day-to-day with a left leg injury, but I’d be surprised if the big man is out there for the Celtics. He just got back from a calf injury on his other leg, so playing Game 3 would seemingly be a little risky. If Porzingis is out, that’d be a pretty big blow to the Celtics. Boston might be 9-1 without Porzingis in the postseason, but the Celtics haven’t played anybody as good as the Mavericks. Boston is also a much better defensive team with Porzingis out there, as he’s an elite rim protector that can also step out and competently guard the perimeter. If he’s not out there, we should see the Mavericks wake up in a big way. But even if Porzingis does give it a go, I like Dallas to get on the board in this game.
It’s just a little hard to ignore that the Mavericks are 21-12 against the spread in game with lines of +3 to -3 this season. They’re also 39-24 ATS as favorites on the year, and they have won those games by an average of 6.3 points per game. And while I’m not looking for Dallas to cover, those trends do matter to me.
I also believe there will be fewer 3-point flurries from the Celtics in Dallas. Boston shot poorly from deep in Game 2, but the team still saw Jrue Holiday and Derrick White combining to shoot 6 for 14 from 3. Those are two guys that likely won’t shoot as well on the road. And there’s just big-time positive regression coming from the Mavericks shooters. Dallas went 7 for 27 from 3 in Game 1 and followed it up by shooting 6 for 26 from 3 in Game 2. The Mavericks are way too good of a 3-point shooting team to keep that up, even if the Celtics are very good at defending the 3-point line.
Overall, I’m expecting Dallas’ crowd to rattle Boston a bit, and I think the Mavericks will use the energy and comfortability to play their best offensive game of the series. It’s clear after two games that Boston is a better team than Dallas, but I still don’t see the Celtics sweeping. And this is the one the Mavericks need to get.
Bet: Mavericks ML (-130 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – June 12
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks (Game 3) – 8:30 pm ET
I had P.J. Washington to go Over 11.5 points in Game 2 and he finished with 17 points. It also felt like Washington left some food on the table, as he went 1 for 5 from 3 in the game. Well, Washington is one of the players that should shoot a lot better with the series heading back to Dallas. And he could also benefit from the absence of Porzingis, if the big man ends up missing this game. Washington might seem like a spot-up shooter for this Mavericks team, but he has a better in-between game than people think. And I can see the forward having a good game attacking the basket, as he did in Game 2. And overall, Washington has scored at least 14 points in three of his last five games. And the way Boston is defending him is giving him a lot of great opportunities to score. I don’t see that changing the rest of the way. The Celtics need to continue doing what they’re doing on Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Bet: Washington Over 13.5 Points (-121)
2023-24 Record: 385-423-3 (+3.63 units)
