The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we’re turning the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Monday, April 22nd. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 21
NBA Best Bets Today – April 22
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks – 7:30 pm ET
I like the Sixers +6 at -115 in this game, but you can get it at +7 at -130 odds if you look hard enough. So, I’m buying a point at a little more than the common price of 10 cents, as I think it’s worth it to land on a key number. I’m also sprinkling Philadelphia as a moneyline play. I mentioned it before Game 1 and I went into it a little in our NBA Playoffs Betting Primer, but I’m on Philadelphia to win this series. And it’ll be hard for the Sixers to do that without heading back to Philly with a 1-1 split.
The end result of Game 1 was disappointing as a Sixers moneyline bettor, as Philadelphia was +14 with Joel Embiid on the floor. And the Sixers likely wouldn’t have gone down 14 if Embiid didn’t leave the floor towards the end of the second quarter. On top of that, the Knicks had quite a bit of luck from behind the 3-point line in the game, including a banked Bojan Bogdanovic triple and four 3s from Josh Hart. The last of those 3s from Hart was a double-pump heave that hit nothing but the bottom of the net. Of course, Jalen Brunson isn’t likely to go 8 for 26 from the floor again, so it’s not like regression in some areas will doom the Knicks. But Philadelphia showed that it is fully capable of hanging around on the road, and I like the Sixers to do it again.
It’s definitely a little concerning that both Embiid (knee) and Tyrese Maxey (illness) are questionable tonight, but it’d be surprising to see either of them miss a postseason game. And as long as they’re out there, I’ll feel really good about having this many points. Nick Nurse will likely drill into his team the importance of being attentive on the glass, as his team was out-rebounded 55-33 in Game 1. The Knicks are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, so the Sixers can’t be lazy.
There’s also some room for growth from any number of the possible Sixers third options. Tobias Harris and Kelly Oubre Jr. combined to score 17 points in Game 1. One of those two will have a big game at some point in the series.
On top of all of that, Philadelphia is 39-24 against the spread when coming off a loss to an opponent over the last two seasons.
Bet: Sixers +7 (-130 – 2 units) & Sixers ML (+200 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 22
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 pm ET
You can take Gary Harris to score Over 5.5 points at -123 odds, but I’d rather go with the veteran to hit two triples at plus-money odds. The reality is that Harris likely isn’t going Over his point total without making two 3s. So, this feels like a much better way to play it.
Harris played 33 minutes in Orlando’s Game 1 loss to Cleveland, and it’d be surprising if he doesn’t play at least 30 minutes here. The Magic just know exactly what he brings to the table, and that’s a calming presence that can shoot and defend. And I’m not concerned about Harris going 0 for 5 from deep last game. The fact he even shot five 3s is encouraging, as he shot 37.1% from deep in the regular season. So, as long as he isn’t shy about letting them fly, I love him to bounce back and hit multiple 3s.
Bet: Harris Over 1.5 Made 3s (+130)
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
Jamal Murray had 22 points in Denver’s Game 1 win over Los Angeles, but he left a lot on the table in that one. Murray shot just 9 for 24 in the game, despite having shot 50.8% from the floor against the Lakers in the regular season. Of course, defensive intensity increases in the postseason, so Murray isn’t getting regular-season looks right now. But Los Angeles doesn’t have good defensive guards, and Murray should be able to torch this Lakers team.
I’m expecting Murray to bounce back and turn in a more efficient performance in Game 2. And that should mean at least 25 points. And for what it’s worth, Murray had at least 25 in all four games against the Lakers in last year’s Western Conference Finals. He also averaged 34.0 points per game in the two home games in that series.
Bet: Murray Over 24.5 Points (-118 – 1.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 332-346-3 (-10.14 units)
