The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Saturday, April 27th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 27
NBA Best Bets Today – April 27
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic – 1:00 pm ET
The Magic absolutely whooped the Cavaliers in Game 3, but I think Cleveland will head back home with a 3-1 series lead. There was a lot that went right for Orlando last game, with the team shooting 51.1% from the floor and 35.1% from 3. The Magic also had only eight turnovers in the game. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers shot 39.0% from the floor and 23.5% from deep. And they coughed the ball up 14 times. But Cleveland is the slightly better offensive team in this series. So, the Cavaliers should bounce back a bit, while the Magic are due for some regression. And Cleveland will also be a lot sharper defensively. This was one of the best defenses in the league during the regular season.
The thing that should absolutely change in Game 4 is the play in the backcourt. Jalen Suggs went scorched Earth in Game 3, finishing with 24 points on 9 for 11 shooting from the floor and 3 for 5 shooting from 3. He singlehandedly outscored Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. But that will absolutely change the rest of the way. Even in an electric atmosphere, Suggs isn’t capable of consistently finding that place offensively. And Mitchell should bounce back in a big way. He has played at a high level in road playoff games before.
Cleveland was also 13-5 against the spread after a road loss this season. But since I’m taking the moneyline, it’s a little more relevant that the Cavaliers won those games by an average of 5.6 points per game. This team has bounced back all year.
Bet: Cavaliers ML (+118 – 2 units)
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat – 6:00 pm ET
I’m having a hard time understanding why this total is so low. These teams have combined to score at least 205 points in both of the games in this series, and we just saw a Game 2 in which Miami absolutely launched 3s. The Heat know that they can’t beat this Celtics team without holding their own in the math battle, so Erik Spoelstra has given his players the ultimate green light from deep. And if Miami is firing away from 3, I just don’t see any reason not to play the Over. The Celtics shoot more 3s than any team in basketball. So, as long as these teams are hitting at a decent clip, it’s going to be hard for this to be a low-scoring game.
The Over was also 22-19 in Boston road games during the regular season. So, it’s not like a road environment will completely shake the Celtics confidence. And that’s especially true of a playoff game in Miami, where the fans stroll in at their own leisure.
I’m also not looking too deep into what we saw from the Celtics in Game 2. They were first in the league in offensive rating during the regular season, so they can be counted on to put last game’s 101-point performance behind them. It’s really up to the Heat to help this Over hit. And the fact they’re being a little more fearless than they were in Game 1 should mean at least 100 points from them.
Bet: Over 204 (-110)
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers – 8:30 pm ET
The Lakers honestly deserve some credit for outplaying the defending champions for 75% of this series. But Los Angeles’ second-half execution has been miserable, so the team has nothing to show for it. Now we’re in a position in which the Lakers are frustrated with head coach Darvin Ham, plus LeBron James is talking about basketball not being that important. This just feels like a broken team. And the Nuggets are out for blood.
Head coach Mike Malone seemingly has a diet that consists of nothing but Lakers tears, so he’s going to have his team ready to go for the kill here. And the reality is that there’s just not much Los Angeles can even do at this point. The Lakers aren’t getting consistent enough play from their backcourt, which makes it nearly impossible to beat this Nuggets team. And Los Angeles was facing an uphill climb to begin with. The Nuggets are fourth in the league in adjusted offensive rating and ninth in adjusted defensive rating. The Lakers are 15th in offense and 16th in defense. There’s simply nothing Los Angeles does at a higher level than Denver.
On top of all of that, Nikola Jokic is capable of dominating Anthony Davis, who is one of the best defenders in the league. That really takes away from what makes Los Angeles go on the defensive end.
The coaching mismatch in this series is also very real. It’s not a coincidence that the Lakers are going into halftime with leads and getting their butts kicked in the second half. Los Angeles isn’t making adjustments, while Denver is making good ones. And overall, that makes it hard to picture this being anything but a Nuggets win. And I think it has the potential to get ugly.
Bet: Nuggets ML (-150 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 27
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans – 3:30 pm ET
I thought about going with Chet Holmgren to hit at least two 3s in today’s Game 3, but this is his first road playoff game. With that in mind, the rookie might be a little rattled out there. But I do think Holmgren’s defense will travel without problems. That said, I think it’s generous that we can get Holmgren to have at least four “stocks” at plus-money odds. Holmgren only had two in Game 2, but that was a blowout win for the Thunder. In a closer game, Holmgren should be a lot more active as a defender. In fact, he had six combined steals and blocks in Game 1.
Including the regular season, Holmgren has gone Over this mark in five of his last eight games. He’s just one of the best defenders in basketball, and he uses his length well. And he’ll have opportunities to do it in this game, as the Pelicans are going to have a lot of adrenaline. That should mean a few more drives to the rim than usual.
Bet: Holmgren Over 3.5 Steals and Blocks (+126 – 1.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 342-364-3 (-2.55 units)
