The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Saturday, May 4th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 4
NBA Best Bets Today – May 4
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets – 7:00 pm ET
I think this is going to be a pretty competitive series, but I like the Nuggets to take care of business in Game 1. I just think the Timberwolves are going to have some work to do in order to get comfortable playing a team this disciplined. Minnesota’s offense was a bit of a concern heading into the postseason, but the team absolutely torched the Phoenix Suns. But the Suns had a defensive rating of 123.2 in the first round, and that was the worst in the postseason, by far. Sure, the Timberwolves deserve some credit for making the Suns look lousy, but Phoenix’s defense was a mess all year.
Denver is a top-10 defense when it comes to adjusted defensive rating, according to Dunks & Threes. And the Nuggets gave up only 96.2 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt, according to Cleaning The Glass. That was the fifth-best mark in basketball. That said, Anthony Edwards and Co. are going to have their work cut out for them offensively here. And while they might figure it out, I have a hard time believing they’ll do it instantly.
I also think Denver’s ability to execute offensively will make Minnesota’s historic defense look rather normal. While Rudy Gobert is probably better equipped to stop Nikola Jokic than anyone, the Timberwolves don’t really allow the Defensive Player of the Year favorite to play him straight up. And even when he has, the results haven’t been great. Overall, we have learned that Jokic is matchup-proof. Just look at the way he dominated Anthony Davis in the first round. Then, the Timberwolves have to worry about stopping Jamal Murray, who just might be the best guard in the league when it comes to crunch time. So, if this game is somewhat close late, the Nuggets will probably separate.
All in all, I just think Minnesota might have to take it on the chin early in this series before learning and adjusting. I also think the Nuggets will be in a good place from a health standpoint after having some days to rest after the Lakers series. It also doesn’t help the Timberwolves that Chris Finch has been dealing with his own injury in the last week. He’s an incredible head coach, but there’s no way he was able to prepare for this game the way he wanted to.
Bet: Nuggets -4.5 (-105 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 4
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets – 7:00 pm ET
This is definitely a bit of an odd player prop but I’m taking Aaron Gordon to make at least one 3 tonight. Gordon only hit one triple on 10 tries against the Los Angeles Lakers, but I’m expecting him to be a little quicker with the trigger in this series. This Timberwolves team likes to put Gobert on Gordon, who they do not respect as a shooter. And Gobert is going to sag off on Gordon so that the big wing doesn’t drive right by him. So, Gordon is going to need to at least take some shots in order to help the Nuggets offense operate as a whole. And in last year’s playoffs, Gordon made at least one 3 in three of the five games these teams played. And he shot 33.3% on the series. That said, I’m taking a shot on Gordon to knock one down tonight, as I’m confident he’ll take at least two or three. And if Gordon is going to make some shots anywhere, it’ll be in Denver. He shot 35.7% from 3 in home games during the regular season, while shooting just 22.1% on the road.
Bet: Gordon Over 0.5 Made 3s (+100 – 1.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 350-376-3 (-5.63 units)
