The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Sunday, April 28th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 28
NBA Best Bets Today – April 28
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers – 1:00 pm ET
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks – 3:30 pm ET
The Sixers trail 2-1 in this series and probably feel like they should be up 3-0. But Philadelphia is down 2-1 and isn’t going to have a shot at winning this series without taking this game. And I think that urgency will be enough to help the Sixers get the job done against the Knicks. But I’m throwing them into a two-team moneyline parlay instead of playing the spread. New York just doesn’t go away and I don’t want to get backdoored late. I’d also rather just have the moneyline in case this is a close game.
Overall, Joel Embiid is looking healthier and healthier, at least when it comes to the knee. And the Knicks have absolutely no answer for him. Embiid had 50 points on only 19 shots in Game 3, and he’s a threat to go for at least 35 again today. And if New York sends help in his direction, Tyrese Maxey and the others will make them pay for that. The Sixers have also done a good job of defending Jalen Brunson in this series. Brunson did break out a bit in Game 3, but Philadelphia will continue to be physical with him. And as long as the team is up on the other Knicks shooters, it really doesn’t matter what Brunson does. He doesn’t have much help when it comes to secondary scoring. On top of that, the Sixers have won by an average of 8.4 points per game as home favorites this year.
As for the Mavericks, it’s just hard not to go against the Clippers considering how Kawhi Leonard looks. From a physical standpoint, Leonard actually looked significantly better in Game 2 than he did in Game 3. And he said his knee is not responding to treatment the way he hoped. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are just outplaying the Clippers everywhere. For as good of a coach as Ty Lue is, Los Angeles is doing nothing but jacking up contested jumpers in this series. The team has had trouble finding a rhythm against an elite Dallas defense. And the Mavericks look great offensively, as expected. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both capable of cooking in isolation, but they’re also making good reads. And the role players have done enough in the last two games.
Overall, I just love both home teams today and I’d rather take both in a plus-money moneyline parlay than lay any points.
PARLAY: Sixers ML + Mavericks ML (+126 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 28
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
Myles Turner’s shot blocking has been hit or miss in this series. He has had two games without blocks, but he had three in Game 2. And I tend to think we’ll see another multi-block performance out of Turner tonight. Turner averaged 1.9 blocks per game in 27.0 minutes per game this season. But his minutes are up to 36.3 per game during the postseason, so he is being given more time to impact games defensively. That should yield some results eventually, and this game might be one in which he’ll get more opportunities. With Damian Lillard out, we might see more Bobby Portis mid-range possessions. Turner will likely be defending some of those. If he’s around the ball more, the blocks will come.
Bet: Turner Over 1.5 Blocks (-125 – 1.5 units)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns – 9:30 pm ET
Devin Booker is coming off a game in which he had eight assists. It was a long time coming for Booker to break through in that category, as he operated as the Suns point guard for most of the regular season. And I like him to go Over 6.5 assists with his NBA player props today. Booker actually had 20 potential assists in Game 3. And that wasn’t some sort of accident. The Suns clearly made a concerted effort to put the ball back in Booker’s hands after the way Games 1 and 2 went. And considering Phoenix played its best offensive game of the series on Friday, I don’t see the Suns going away from Booker as the lead guard here. Now, let’s just hope that some of Phoenix’s players can help him out and knock down some shots.
Bet: Booker Over 6.5 Assists (-113 – 1.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 343-367-3 (-6.76 units)
