The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Thursday, May 16th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 16
NBA Best Bets Today – May 16
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:30 pm ET
The Nuggets are averaging 114.7 points per game over the last three games, so it’s a little wild to see their team total down at 101.5 tonight. Even if you expect the Timberwolves to show up in a do-or-die Game 6, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which they completely shut the Nuggets down. Instead, I think it’ll need to be Minnesota’s offense that finds a way to get things together. The Timberwolves found so much success in the first six games of the playoffs by making quick passes and putting trust in every player in the rotation. But the Nuggets have found a way to disrupt that, whether it’s by allowing certain players to take tough shots on one end or attacking them on the other. But either way, I don’t think there’s much Minnesota can do to keep Denver from scoring.
Nikola Jokic shoved Rudy Gobert, the Defensive Player of the Year, in a locker in Game 5. The MVP had 40 points, 13 assists and seven rebounds, and he got a good shot whenever he wanted. In this game, I’d expect the Timberwolves to apply more pressure on Jokic, forcing some of the others to beat them. But we have now seen that Denver’s secondary stars are doing their parts in this series, and the role players have also woken up. So, if the Timberwolves do force the ball out of Jokic’s hands, I trust the Nuggets to make enough shots to go Over this number. And I also think it’s pretty likely that Denver leaves the Target Center with its spot in the Western Conference Finals secured. So, I’d lean towards the Nuggets on the moneyline, if you’re desperate to play a side.
Bet: Nuggets Team Total Over 101.5 (-115 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 16
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:30 pm ET
As previously mentioned, I think we’re going to see a big playmaking game out of Nikola Jokic tonight. The big man was just unguardable in one-on-one situations in Game 5, and I don’t see Minnesota allowing him to do that again. The Timberwolves will likely feel like they are better off forcing some of the role players to beat them, especially with this being a home game. But the reality is that Jokic had 13 dimes in Game 5, so he was still finding his teammates while scoring at will. And he has had at least nine assists in three of the five games these teams have played. So, this number just feels a little too low for me. That’s especially true considering Jokic is averaging 15.7 potential assists per game over the last three games.
Bet: Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (-125)
2023-24 Record: 369-398-3 (+14.80 units)
