The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Tuesday, May 7th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 7
NBA Best Bets Today – May 7
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics – 7:00 pm ET
This is a battle between two teams that can really defend at a high level. Boston is second in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating, while Cleveland is seventh in the league in that regard. And when you break it down to just the postseason, the Celtics are third in defensive rating and the Cavaliers are fourth. Meanwhile, both of these teams play at relatively slow paces. With that in mind, I’m going to play the Under in Game 1 and see how it goes.
The reality here is that this play will likely be decided by Boston’s 3-point shooting. This team shoots more 3s than anybody in the league, and the Celtics happened to drill 38.8% of their triples in the regular season. So, a good stretch here or there can go a long way in causing this Under to miss. But I also happen to think this will turn into a blowout and that should significantly slow the pace in the second half.
The Under is also 15-7 when Cleveland plays on the road against teams shooting at least 36.0% from 3 this season. On top of that, the Under was 2-1 in the three games these teams played during the regular season. And everybody knows that postseason basketball is uglier than what we see in the regular season.
Bet: Under 211.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 7
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 pm ET
P.J. Washington had at least 11 points in three of the six games the Mavericks played against the Los Angeles Clippers. And I tend to think this series will be a bit easier on him as a scorer. I know Oklahoma City has a better adjusted defensive rating than Los Angeles did, but Washington won’t be drawing the best Thunder defenders. Mark Daigneault already stated that Lu Dort will be on Luka Doncic, and it’s likely that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will handle Kyrie Irving. That leaves either Josh Giddey or Jalen Williams to defend Washington. Giddey is way too small to handle that matchup, and I think the same is true of Williams. So, when Washington attacks the rim, he should be able to finish through either of them. Also, both players will likely sag off a bit and let Washington shoot some 3s, as they need to be able to help out on the two Mavericks stars. So, I see Washington making some things happen as a scorer, and I think it starts with a good performance in Game 1.
Bet: Washington Over 10.5 Points (-135 – 2 units) & Washington Alt Points 15+ (+220 – 0.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 352-380-3 (-10.19 units)
