The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Wednesday, May 1st. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 1
NBA Best Bets Today – May 1
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics – 7:30 pm ET
It seems like the Celtics are going to be without Kristaps Porzingis for a couple of weeks. That might seem like a devastating injury, but the good news is that Boston should be able to take care of Miami tonight. And the Celtics can easily beat the Orlando Magic or Cleveland Cavaliers without Porzingis.
As for tonight, I don’t see the Celtics hurting for offense. This season, Boston is scoring 120.5 points per 100 possessions with Al Horford at center. So, this offense is still capable of humming with the veteran playing big minutes at the five. After all, Horford is still a very good 3-point shooter and he’s also a good decision maker. That said, I actually like Boston’s chances of going Over a 107.5-point team total this evening.
The Heat have been able to muck up this series, slowing down an explosive Celtics team. Miami hasn’t allowed Boston to come anywhere close to the amount of possessions in a game the Celtics are used to having. But while Boston should be able to figure things out without Porzingis offensively, his loss is big on the defensive end. And without his rim protection, Miami might be able to find a little more success offensively. That can speed this game up a little, allowing the Celtics to play their game.
Miami will also be without Jaime Jaquez Jr. tonight. The rookie might not be the greatest defender in the world, but he’s a wing with some real size and tenacity. Without him and Jimmy Butler to bang with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics should have an easier time scoring tonight.
Bet: Celtics Team Total Over 107.5 (-105)
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:00 pm ET
Dallas has been unable to meet Los Angeles’ energy level in games without Kawhi Leonard. But with the series now tied at 2-2, the Mavericks are going to need to find a way to get up for this one. The Clippers have stormed out to massive early leads in the two games without Leonard, and it was apparent that the Mavericks weren’t ready to go. But with two games of film to look at, Dallas should be ready to defend Los Angeles now.
The Clippers play noticeably faster when Leonard isn’t around, which is probably why they have thrown the Mavericks off. Los Angeles was just 20th in the league in pace during the regular season, with the team preferring to execute in a half-court setting. But Los Angeles was a lot quicker to get shots up in Games 1 and 4, and there was no hesitation from James Harden or Paul George in either game. Sometimes players can overthink things and defer to one another, but Harden and George don’t need to do that with Leonard out. There are plenty of shots to go around for both.
The Mavericks just need to be ready to defend the 3-point line and they need to be prepared for a more aggressive Harden. And with two opportunities to see how that will look, I trust Dallas to be play at a high level defensively. This was an elite team on that end of the floor to end the regular season, and Jason Kidd is generally good at getting his guys dialed in after weak performances. We saw it from Game 1 to Game 2.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving should also be able to take advantage of Leonard’s absence on the other end of the floor. With Leonard out, it’s not like Los Angeles is replacing him with another elite wing defender. It just means bigger minutes for Amir Coffey and Norm Powell. So, the Mavericks will continue to hunt Ivica Zubac. But they’ll also have better individual matchups to work with when they’re not running pick-and-rolls.
On top of all of that, the Mavericks are 19-6 against the spread as road favorites, and they have won those games by an average of 7.4 points per game. And I’m not even asking them to cover. I’m just playing them to win outright. Dallas is also 9-0 ATS in road games when avenging an upset loss against an opponent this season. So, I expect them to bounce back and find a way on the road, like they have all year.
Bet: Mavericks ML (-140 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 1
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:00 pm ET
P.J. Washington has struggled from the outside over the last two games. After going 5 for 11 from deep in Games 1 and 2, Washington went 1 for 9 when the series moved to Dallas. But Washington is now returning to Crypto.com Arena, so perhaps he’ll be a little more comfortable shooting on the road — which is an odd thing to write. And the most important thing is that Washington hasn’t stopped firing.
The Clippers can just be a little lackadaisical when defending the 3-point line. And they are almost forced to leave Washington in order to apply pressure on Doncic and Irving. With that in mind, there will still be plenty of open looks for Washington the remainder of this series. And I’m firing up a play on him to make multiple 3s, as I believe he’s a good enough shooter to take advantage of wide open shots.
Bet: Washington Over 1.5 Made 3s (-108 – 1.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 346-374-3 (-10.31 units)
