All things must come to an end and that is the case for the Warriors this season. Klay Thompson is now in Dallas and the last vestiges of a once dominant franchise – Stephen Curry and Draymond Green – remain in San Francisco, hoping to spark one last run.
After a disappointing season that ended with a blowout loss to Sacramento in the Play-In Tournament, Golden State’s front office went to work this offseason. Gone are Thompson and Chris Paul. De’Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield and Kyle Anderson were acquired in order to give this team more reliable depth. What remains is a team with very solid depth, but some questions as to how effective the sum of the parts can be.
The key components of this team are Curry and Green. When those two shared the floor last season, Golden State outscored opponents by 6.2 points every 100 possessions. Curry had one of the worst shooting seasons of his career, but he still hit 40.8% of his 3-point attempts and averaged 124.6 points per 100 shot attempts. Green was still a top-tier defender and improved the Warriors’ defensive rating by 5.9 points every 100 possessions on the floor. As long those two are healthy – a big if for two players who have regularly missed time the last few seasons – Golden State will be a competent team.
Who plays around those two is the biggest question lingering around this team.
Melton and Hield are candidates to take the shooting guard spot, as is second-year guard Brandin Podziemski. Melton and Podziemski shot 35.3% and 35.8% on catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts last season, so Hield might be the better fit. But his shooting might be a better weapon off the bench. Kevon Looney and Trayce Jackson-Davis will compete for the starting center spot next to Green.
The small forward spot is one of great intrigue. Andrew Wiggins is coming off the worst year of his career. He shot 45.3% from the floor and 35.8% from 3-point range. In his time on the floor, the Warriors’ net rating worsened by 6.2 points every 100 possessions. Jonathan Kuminga is coming off a career year. Unlike Wiggins, Kuminga improved Golden State’s net rating by 2.0 points every 100 possessions. He is also in the final year of his rookie deal and is set to be a restricted free agent next summer. It makes all the sense in the world that his role is even larger this season.
Golden State was a high-volume shooting team which finished 10th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (117.8). That shooting should still be a strength this season. Hield is a great replacement for Thompson. Melton is a career 36.9% shooter who should fit nicely in this offense as well.
Warriors Win Total Prediction
Conventional wisdom has it that Golden State downgraded in the offseason, but that is not the case. Melton, Hield and Anderson give the Warriors a deep bench to rely on with plenty of offensive upside. Their schedule is also beneficial. Golden State has a +4 net rest advantage this season. They only have 14 back-to-backs on the schedule. This play is dependent on Kuminga blossoming into a legitimate wing threat and both Green and Curry staying healthy. If that happens, this team is going to be better than market expectations.
Bet: Over 43.5 Wins (-110)
