How NBA Star Missed Games Affect Team Results:
The worst part about my job is going back into the NBA box scores the morning after a full day of games. I’m always petrified about what I am going to find. It is a humbling process for someone who takes great pride in keeping organized data and offers up daily strength ratings for others to use. It is nearly impossible for anyone to be 100% accurate going into the games regarding which key players will play and which won’t. It has actually become an embarrassing problem for the league. From workload management to suspensions to actual justified injuries, it is a maddening situation to monitor.
Just this past Monday night, we witnessed an effort of egregious nature as the Bucks decided to essentially rest their entire starting lineup sometime close to the tip-off of their game at Oklahoma City. I wound up moving their strength ratings 12.5 points off the norm, unfortunately, the next morning. My power ratings prior to the game should have said OKC -22.5. Instead, it was just -10. The Thunder won by 29. While I logged the postgame wrap-up accordingly, after the fact doesn’t really help bettors relying on the rating sets. That said, I do my best to be as close to 100% accurate daily as to whom I envision will and won’t play.
With the trade deadline looming on Thursday as of 2:00 p.m. CT and already a whirlwind of activity having occurred, it helps for GMs, fans, and bettors alike to know the actual value of the key players. If you recall, after Saturday’s shocking trade between the Mavericks and Lakers, there was plenty of discourse regarding the controversial swap of Luke Doncic and Anthony Davis (among other pieces). Was the trade as bad as everyone has said?
For bettors to understand the value of some of the league’s top players when it comes to their team’s strength and pace with or without them, I have conducted a study looking at the data. I put together a log for each of 10 key players and their teams, separating the games they have played from those in which they didn’t. I did all of the necessary adjustments for home/road, power rating and effective pace of the opponent, actual vs. expected win/loss margins, and factored in any other key players that missed these games. I have come up with the following key data points for those 10 players, all of whom have missed notable action this season. They are ordered in terms of their actual importance to their teams.
1. Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio)
Spurs’ records with: 19-22 SU & 20-21 ATS
Spurs’ records without: 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS
+/- without Wembanyama: -13% SU, +1% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 112.0/112.8
Normalized PF/PA without: 110.9/120.0
+/- without Wembanyama: -1.1 PF, +7.2 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 99.7 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 102.8 poss/G
+/- without Wembanyama: Spurs play 3.1 possessions per game FASTER
Team Effective Strength with: +0.6
Team Effective Strength without: -7.9
+/- without Wembanyama: Spurs are -8.5 points WORSE
Steve’s thoughts: It’s obvious from the data alone that the Spurs are a far worse team without Wembanyama in the lineup. He factors in significantly on both ends of the court, and his absence makes the Spurs a far lesser team defensively. However, they also play a lot faster. He typically amounts to about 4 points I’ve gathered from oddsmakers when out. In actuality, he means much more to the Spurs.
2. Kevin Durant (Phoenix)
Suns’ records with: 24-15 SU & 15-23 ATS
Suns’ records without: 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS
+/- without Durant: -52% SU, -19% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 113.0/112.0
Normalized PF/PA without: 110.1/117.8
+/- without Durant: -2.9 PF, +5.8 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 98.4 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 98.4 poss/G
+/- without Durant: Suns play identical pace with or without Durant
Team Effective Strength with: -2.1
Team Effective Strength without: -8.5
+/- without Durant: Suns are -6.4 points WORSE
Steve’s thoughts: In truth, the Suns are legitimately underachieving this season overall, but I would pinpoint Durant as the top culprit at this point, as they are actually a much worse team without him in the lineup. It is interesting to note that his absence does nothing to change the effective pace at which Phoenix plays. However, it is strange to think that the dropoff actually is worse on the defensive end of the court.
3. LaMelo Ball (Charlotte)
Hornets’ records with: 11-20 SU & 15-13 ATS
Hornets’ records without: 1-15 SU & 8-8 ATS
+/- without Ball: -29% SU, -4% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 109.5/112.9
Normalized PF/PA without: 99.8/109.1
+/- without Ball: -9.7 PF, -3.8 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 100.4 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 96.9 poss/G
+/- without Ball: Hornets play a significantly slower pace (-3.5 poss/G) without Ball
Team Effective Strength with: +0.7
Team Effective Strength without: -4.2
+/- without Ball: Hornets are -4.9 points WORSE
Steve’s thoughts: The Hornets are a completely different team with & without Lamelo Ball in the lineup, not surprisingly. They play at a much more deliberate pace and aren’t nearly as effective offensively. Look no further than the 1-15 SU record without Ball to recognize this franchise needs him healthy.
4. Nikola Jokic (Denver)
Nuggets’ records with: 29-15 SU & 22-21 ATS
Nuggets’ records without: 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS
+/- without Jokic: -33% SU, -18% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 121.9/116.5
Normalized PF/PA without: 107.7/110.8
+/- without Jokic: -14.2 PF, -5.7 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 102.7 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 97.9 poss/G
+/- without Jokic: Nuggets play significantly slower pace (-4.8 poss/G) without Jokic
Team Effective Strength with: +0.4
Team Effective Strength without: -4.5
+/- without Jokic: Nuggets are -4.9 points WORSE
Steve’s thoughts: Fortunately for the Nuggets, Jokic has only missed six games to date. They are a much different and better team with him, but in surprisingly different ways than you might think. The points for drop off without Jokic in the lineup are the biggest of any of the 10 players on this list. The fact that Denver has played at a 4.8 possession per game slower pace when Jokic doesn’t play is noteworthy. However, when you consider how strong of a passer and how efficient of a scorer he is, the Nuggets possession just might take a bit longer when he is absent.
5. Luka Doncic (LA Lakers – formerly Denver)
Mavericks’ records with: 12-9 SU & 10-10 ATS
Mavericks’ records without: 14-14 SU & 13-14 ATS
+/- without Doncic: -7% SU, -2% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 118/112.4
Normalized PF/PA without: 113.4/112.4
+/- without Doncic: -4.6 PF, +0 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 100.3 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 100.1 poss/G
+/- without Doncic: Mavericks play slightly slower pace (-0.2 poss/G) without Doncic
Team Effective Strength with: +0.3
Team Effective Strength without: -2
+/- without Doncic: Mavericks were -2.3 points WORSE
Steve’s thoughts: For as much as Doncic was billed as a superstar in the recent trade, these stats show that whether or not he played for the Mavericks before being traded wasn’t all that impactful either way. They were naturally worse offensively, but the defensive impact was negligible. Read on, as you’ll see that Dallas still got the lesser end of the trade.
6. Joel Embiid (Philadelphia)
76ers’ records with: 7-6 SU & 4-9 ATS
76ers’ records without: 12-23 SU & 15-18 ATS
+/- without Embiid: -20% SU, +14% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 108.4/108.7
Normalized PF/PA without: 108.1/112.9
+/- without Embiid: -0.3 PF, +4.2 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 99.4 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 97.2 poss/G
+/- without Embiid: 76ers play a slower pace (-2.2 poss/G) without Embiid
Team Effective Strength with: -3.2
Team Effective Strength without: -5.0
+/- without Embiid: 76ers were -1.8 points WORSE
Steve’s thoughts: No player in the NBA embodies the new age of players opting to play or not than Embiid. The 76ers’ won-lost record this season is reflective of his “unavailability,” unfortunately. The numbers are different than I would have figured, though, as Philly actually plays at a slower pace but yields more points when Embiid is out.
7. Giannis Antetokuonmpo (Milwaukee)
Bucks’ records with: 24-18 SU & 18-23 ATS
Bucks’ records without: 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS
+/- without Antetokuonmpo: -14% SU, +13% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 114.5/112.5
Normalized PF/PA without: 108.2/108.8
+/- without Antetokuonmpo: -6.3 PF, -3.7 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 100.4 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 99.3 poss/G
+/- without Antetokuonmpo: Bucks play a slower pace (-0.9 poss/G) without Antetokuonmpo
Team Effective Strength with: -1.6
Team Effective Strength without: -2.1
+/- without Antetokuonmpo: Bucks were –0.5 points WORSE
Steve’s thoughts: Considering the stats that Giannis has put up this season, scoring more than 31 PPG and grabbing more than 12 rebounds per contest, it is an eye-opener to see that the Bucks’ level of play doesn’t change all that dramatically with or without him. Effectively, Milwaukee has only been about a half point worse in the seven games he has missed. Of course, we all know that the franchise would miss him dearly with any long-term absence.
8. Ja Morant (Memphis)
Grizzlies’ records with: 21-9 SU & 19-10 ATS
Grizzlies’ records without: 13-7 SU & 14-6 ATS
+/- without Morant: -5% SU, +4% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 122.6/115.3
Normalized PF/PA without: 124.7/116.2
+/- without Morant: -1.9 PF, +0.9 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 107.2 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 105.5 poss/G
+/- without Morant: Grizzlies play a slower pace (-1.7 poss/G) without Morant
Team Effective Strength with: +3.3
Team Effective Strength without: +3.5
+/- without Morant: Grizzlies were +0.2 points BETTER
Steve’s thoughts: As electric of a talent as Morant is, I’m not surprised to see that the Grizzlies play faster when he is in the lineup. I am surprised, however, to see how effective they remain without him. It must be great to have depth. At this point, you have to figure that Memphis would still be OK for a postseason run if something long-term were to happen to Morant. They’ve actually scored more points without him in the lineup.
9. Steph Curry (Golden State)
Warriors’ records with: 19-21 SU & 18-22 ATS
Warriors’ records without: 6-3 SU & 6-2 ATS
+/- without Curry: +19% SU, +30% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 111.6/113
Normalized PF/PA without: 106.9/103.6
+/- without Curry: -4.7 PF, -9.4 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 100.6 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 97.2 poss/G
+/- without Curry: Warriors play a much slower pace (-3.4 poss/G) without Curry
Team Effective Strength with: -3.1
Team Effective Strength without: +0.8
+/- without Curry: Warriors were +3.9 points BETTER
Steve’s thoughts: This is a very shocking set of numbers. I would have never guessed that the Warriors would be almost 4 points per game better as a team in the games Curry has missed this season. After all, oddsmakers typically deduct 4.5 points when he is out. The other numbers, showing how much slower the Warriors play and how much better they defend, are a bit more explainable.
10. Anthony Davis (Formerly LA Lakers – now Dallas)
Lakers’ records with: 24-18 SU & 21-20 ATS
Lakers’ records without: 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS
+/- without Davis: +23% SU, +9% ATS
Normalized PF/PA with: 111.2/112.3
Normalized PF/PA without: 118.6/109
+/- without Davis: +6.6 PF, -3.3 PA
Team Effective Pace with: 98.4 poss/G
Team Effective Pace without: 99.3 poss/G
+/- without Davis: Lakers play a bit faster pace (+0.9 poss/G) without Davis
Team Effective Strength with: -2.5
Team Effective Strength without: +3.4
+/- without Davis: Lakers were +5.9 points BETTER
Steve’s thoughts: Although the data sample is a bit smaller than for several of the other key players I’ve studied here, the Lakers have proven to be a better team on both ends of the court without Davis in the lineup. Perhaps this was not a secret to the franchise and factored into the decision to move him last week. We’ll see what his impact over the long haul is on the Mavericks.
